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Investment Strategy

Slower growth, higher inflation? Not a problem

  Key takeaways:

  • Stocks are at record highs—but we don’t see a bubble. Capital is flowing into areas with solid fundamentals, clearer earnings visibility, and long-term structural support.
  • AI is already delivering: Companies across the AI ecosystem are posting strong earnings and driving real margin resilience—not just hype.
  • Structured notes may offer peace of mind: Such strategies can help investors stay invested, often with downside buffers and the potential to enhance yield.
  • Infrastructure demand is rising: Power, defence, and data centres are drawing attention, offering potential access to long-term growth, inflation-linked income, and portfolio diversification.

Slower growth, higher inflation, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty—yet markets continue to rally.

The S&P 500 closed above 6,400 for the first time last week, even as the data and headlines didn’t exactly paint a picture of stability. Consider:

  • Tariffs are starting to push up prices: Consumer inflation came in better than expected, but underlying price pressures remain well above the Fed’s target. Production costs jumped more sharply, showing supply-side pressures are building as tariffs feed through.
  • Job growth is slowing: Fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, signalling companies' reluctance to lay off workers amid uncertainty. Meanwhile, continuing claims—representing people still receiving benefits—remain near multi-year highs, suggesting it’s getting harder to find a new job after being laid off.
  • A Ukraine–Russia peace deal is still a question mark: The Trump-Putin weekend summit in Alaska calmed fears of escalation, but no deal emerged. Zelenskyy and European leaders are arriving in Washington for follow-up talks.

It’s the kind of backdrop that can make investors uneasy; yet, many seem to be looking through the near-term noise and positioning for the forces that matter most over the long term. That’s why, in our Mid-Year Outlook, we highlighted the importance of getting comfortable with being uncomfortable.

Based on the data we see across our platform, many of our clients have adopted this mindset. Below, we explore three trends that stand out—and may offer tools to build stronger, more resilient portfolios.

AI is already generating real returns

Artificial intelligence is no longer just a future growth story. Companies across the AI value chain—from chip makers to software providers and data centre infrastructure—are posting above-market profits and raising guidance. Looking ahead, AI is expected to create a virtuous cycle: higher productivity supports margin resilience and sustained capital investment.

That conviction is showing up in business behaviour. Last week’s data showed US commercial and industrial loan growth holding above 4% year-on-year—evidence that firms are still investing in long-term innovation, including AI. Meanwhile, just 16 S&P 500 companies have cited the term ‘recession’ on Q2 earnings calls—down from 124 in Q1.

Our clients have taken notice: We’re seeing overall equity flows running ahead of last year’s pace, and flows into our in-house AI-related strategies have already exceeded their full-year 2024 totals. One of our direct deal channels has also seen client commitments this year surpass all of those seen in 2024, primarily in technology, defense, AI, and pre-IPO secondaries and buyouts.

So, while stocks may look expensive, this doesn’t look like a bubble to us—valuations are supported by real earnings growth. With the Q2 earnings season nearly complete, S&P 500 profits are on pace to rise nearly 12% year-over-year, with 9 of 11 sectors showing growth. Markets are rewarding quality and execution—not hype.

Structured notes are delivering protection and yield

Some investors cautious about adding risk have turned to structured notes to stay in the market while managing downside. Our data shows that flows into equity-linked structured notes have nearly doubled year-on-year.

These strategies typically offer targeted equity exposure with built-in protection—such as downside buffers or defined outcomes—often paired with low double-digit yields, or coupons, over the life of the investment.

In a high-rate, high-volatility environment, structured notes have become a powerful way for investors to stay invested, manage risk, and enhance yield—on their own terms.

Infrastructure is becoming a core portfolio anchor

So far this year, flows into infrastructure strategies across our platform are already 1.5 times above 2024's totals. Investors are seeking assets that provide income, diversification, inflation protection, and access to long-term growth themes.

The appeal is structural. Infrastructure benefits from AI’s surging energy demands, the global push to modernise power grids (with power as the sector’s largest component), and rising defence budgets driving investment in physical assets and supporting systems.

This same demand story is playing out in public markets, particularly utilities. Sector earnings are expected to grow by 8% annually over the next five years—roughly double the historical pace—while valuations remain at a discount to the S&P 500.

In short: infrastructure’s tailwinds are supporting resilience across both private and public markets.

Infrastructure can add stability to a 60/40 portfolio

Rolling 1-year return, %

Sources: MSCI, Bloomberg Finance L.P., JPMAM Guide to Alternatives. Data through 3Q24 (latest data available as of May 2025). Global 60/40 portfolio reflective of 60% MSCI World Index, 40% Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index. Private infrastructure represented by MSCI Global Private Quarterly Infrastructure Asset Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

What it means for you

With markets at all-time highs, the instinct may be to hold back. But historically, new highs have often been followed by further gains—especially when backed by strong earnings and structural drivers, as they are today.

We see opportunities for investors to put capital to work, particularly by focusing on areas where the path forward feels more tangible—opportunities backed by real cash flows, clearer outcomes, and long-term demand. The areas that stand out to us:

  • AI-driven productivity: Companies at the core of the AI ecosystem are delivering strong earnings, margin resilience, and long-term growth potential.
  • Structured equity strategies: Strategies that help manage downside risk can enable clients to stay invested.
  • Infrastructure: Sectors tied to power, digital infrastructure, and defence can potentially offer inflation-linked income, diversification, and policy-supported growth.

Your J.P. Morgan team is here to explore what this could mean for your next move.

All-time highs tend to beget more all-time highs

Average forward S&P 500 returns: investing at all-time highs vs. non-highs, 1970-Present

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan. Data as of 1 August 2025. Note 'Investing at all-time highs' represents the average of rolling forward returns calculated from each new S&P 500 record high for the subsequent 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and 24-month intervals. 'Investing at not all-time highs' represents the average of rolling forward returns over the same intervals from days in which the S&P 500 was not at a new high.

KEY RISKS

All market and economic data as of August 2025 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.

  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
  • Additional risk considerations exist for all strategies.
  • The information provided herein is not intended as a recommendation of or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any investment product or service.
  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.
  • Investing in Structured Notes involves a number of significant risks. We have set forth certain risk factors and other investment considerations relating to the investment below. Not all investments are suitable (or in the best interest) for all investors. You should analyze the Structured Notes based on your individual circumstances, taking into account such factors as investment objectives, tolerance for risk and liquidity needs.
  • Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. Alternative investments involve greater risks than traditional investments and should not be deemed a complete investment program. They are not tax efficient and an investor should consult with his/her tax advisor prior to investing. Alternative investments have higher fees than traditional investments and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. The value of the investment may fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than they invested.

 

Important Information

  • The Standard and Poor's 500 Index, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPI are from the first commercial transaction for many products and some services.

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