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Investment Strategy

Nerves tested. Are stocks disconnected from reality?

Nerves were tested. Spirits were lifted. All in a week.

Despite ongoing inflation debate to questions about big tech, strong earnings boosted stocks to their best week of the year.

Last week’s risk whiplash sparked a healthy look at our own outlook. In the end, while the headlines and top-line data can feel disconcerting, going a layer deeper gives us comfort.

Today, we unpack why we still see a constructive path ahead.

Growth versus inflation: The balancing act

The latest GDP print showed the U.S. economy grew 1.6% in Q1, a near two-year low and short of more than 35 economists’ predictions. More unease came as the closely watched core PCE inflation gauge clipped a 2.8% annual pace in March, above expectations.

The worry: Slower growth and stubborn inflation in the U.S. has a bitter “stagflation” taste, even though the growth and inflation mix looked better on this side of the pond. With that data in hand, traders pared back Fed rate cut bets. Just ~35 basis points (bps) of cuts are now anticipated in 2024, with the first full cut not until December. The big debate that followed: Will the Federal Reserve be forced to return to rate hikes?

Last week’s economic releases weren’t great, but the headline numbers don’t tell the whole story. To be sure, a sustained reacceleration of inflation, or stagflationary scenario that sees growth cool at the same time, could reignite a reality of rate hikes. That would be a challenging environment for the economy and markets alike. But that’s not what we see today. Growth is solid, not stagnant. Inflation is sticky, not high. Consumers and corporates are strong and growing more confident, not less, in the future.

That is a far cry from the pandemic-era extremes that prompted 2022’s aggressive rate hikes and market turmoil.

We need to go a layer deeper.

Consumer power trumps inflation

There’s more than meets the eye in last week’s U.S. GDP print. The drag on Q1 growth stemmed from volatile inventories and trade dynamics. Stripping those out and homing in more on the domestic private economy, growth actually ran at a robust 3.1% pace. Much of that happened thanks to the strength of the consumer.

Time will tell whether the recent uptick in inflation sticks, but even as it runs around a 3% annual pace today, wage gains and consumer spending both outpace its rate. With steady and predictable wages, consumers are more inclined to spend. Real consumer spending (adjusted for inflation) grew at a positive 0.5% monthly pace in March, above the average since the turn of the millennium.

Earnings from retail-linked companies echo the same: Visa, the world’s biggest payment processor, and American Express, viewed as a gauge for the more affluent consumer, both signaled spending remains in full charge.

This doesn’t mean there won’t be residual impacts of rising rates: Credit card interest rates and delinquencies have been on the rise. But that’s also not the full picture: Household finances are strong overall, with interest costs as a proportion of income still low compared to history.

In all, the consumer passes its health check. Considering it makes up some 70% of the U.S. economy, growth seems just fine.

Don’t underestimate earnings

With consumers still revving, corporates have more momentum behind their profits. Equally important, moderate inflation enables firms to pass higher costs on to consumers. That fuels sales, and if costs are managed effectively, boosts earnings. The Q1 reporting season is showing this in real time. Bottom-up analysts think S&P 500 profits could grow more than 3% this quarter and culminate with a near-11% increase for the entirety of 2024. That would mark a third quarter of earnings growth and the best full-year since 2021.

Companies are not only generating solid earnings, but they are also doing so more efficiently. Profit margins are high and stable at pre-pandemic levels. Some, and especially tech stalwarts, are even experiencing margin expansion. Take, for instance, Alphabet’s report last week: While sales climbed 15% over the last year, expenses rose just 5%. High-quality companies are successfully navigating and thriving in a high-rate environment.

Firms are capitalizing on this strength to return value to shareholders, using extra cash to boost dividends, engage in share buybacks and pursue strategic investments. Notably, Meta and Alphabet both announced their first-ever dividends this year. Some Street estimates expect dividends for the broader S&P 500 to grow as much as 6% in 2024.

Finally, nerves around tech’s rally and AI hype are understandable. The reaction to Meta’s report last week seemed to reflect investors working to price in the real profit-boosting potential of AI at companies leading the charge in these cutting-edge technologies. But while the debate on the scale and timing is heated, the impact and growth potential feels tangible. Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft all announced a further increase in AI spending last week. More broadly, almost 40% of S&P 500 companies mentioned AI on their quarterly earnings calls in Q4 2023, a big jump from 20% a year prior in Q4 2022.

We are only scratching the surface of this transformative era, with AI-driven opportunities set to expand across the ecosystem. 

Putting it together: Stay focused

When it gets down to it, stocks have shown resiliency in the face of this year’s challenges.

Despite investors aggressively paring back Fed rate cut bets (from ~160 bps at its highs to ~35 bps today), the S&P 500 is up almost 7% so far this year. That’s more than double the average return at this point in the year over the past 20 years.

We don’t think this suggests the market is disconnected from reality. Instead, it underscores that solid growth and an ongoing earnings recovery outweigh the challenges of higher interest rates. This makes stocks one of the best potential hedges against sticky inflation, especially given that investors have already recalibrated their expectations for a year with no rate cuts.

But as our CEO Jamie Dimon wrote in his 2023 annual shareholder letter, “we look at a range of potential outcomes for which we need to be prepared.” That includes our base case for a soft landing, with modest growth and declining inflation and rates. It also includes the risks of a recession and stagflation.

So while we think stocks will outperform bonds this year, investors can use this recent rate reset to their advantage. Bonds may not work as well as initially hoped this year, but elevated yields mean that investors can opportunistically step out of cash to lock in high rates for longer. Other pockets of credit, such as preferred equity and private credit, can enhance yield and take advantage of some of the idiosyncrasies of a “higher for longer” rate environment. As friction points surely arise, active stress and distressed managers can nimbly navigate overleveraged pockets of the market. Finally, real assets continue to be one of the only assets positively correlated with inflation, offering both diversification and access to long-term secular trends.

Above all, having a plan and sticking to it can be the most powerful tool of all. Pullbacks and periods of uncertainty are normal, but in the end, staying invested in a diversified, goals-aligned portfolio has stood the test of time. Your J.P. Morgan team is here to discuss what this means for you.

 

All market and economic data as of April 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

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Growth is solid, not stagnant. Inflation is sticky, not high. Here’s why stocks are so resilient.
Published Apr 29, 2024

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