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Investment Strategy

Halftime report: 2023 in review, so far

Jul 3, 2023

Markets have powered through an array of challenges this year. Looking ahead, we see more opportunities.

Our Top Market Takeaways for July 03, 2023

Halftime report

The best of times, despite the worst of times
 

If you judged by headlines alone, 2023 might have felt as sobering as 2022: Four U.S. banks fell, alongside one in Europe; there was much angst about debt ceiling drama; anxiety spiked around geopolitical uncertainty; and central banks signaled there is more work to do to win the fight against inflation.

And yet, the S&P 500 is up +14.5% so far this year (in price terms). That marks the fourth-best first half in the last 25 years (with 2013, 2019 and 2021 the other occurrences). Big tech put wind in the sails of the rally, and now it’s broadening out: Semiconductors, cruise lines, airlines, automakers, homebuilders and hardware companies are some of the best performers over the last month.

What’s to come? There may yet be challenges ahead, but signs continue to point to a still-resilient economy, and gains this strong tend to signal the bear market is over. In the 21 other instances since 1950 that the S&P 500 has been up at least 10% or more in the first half, it’s rallied further in the second half 17 of those times, with the full year up on average +25%.

Heading into the holiday weekend, we offer a look at the events that have dominated the tape so far this year. Happy Fourth! 

This is the halftime report: keys events from the first half of 2022 in two charts. The first shows the MSCI World index level from January 2023 to June 2023, with annotated events along the way (that slot into Economy, Politics & Geopolitics, Nature, Culture & Technology, and Markets). It began just above 2600 and rose above 2800 by the end of the month. It fell again to 2600 by early march. It then steadily rose to close around 2000 by late June. The second has the same annotations and shows the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German Bund yields from January 2023 to June 2023 with annotated events. The German Bund began at 2.7% and rose to 3.4% by early March, then fell to 2.4% and rose to 3.2% by the end of June 2023. Meanwhile, the 10-year began at 3.9% and rose to 4.1% by March 2023 and then fell to 3.8% by June 2023. 1 Croatia becomes first country to join the euro area since 2015 2 China ends its Zero-COVID policy 3 The U.S. government hits its legal $31.4 trillion debt limit 4 “Balloon-gate” 5 A devastating earthquake strikes Turkey and Syria 6 Kansas City Chiefs win the Superbowl 7 One-year mark of the war in Ukraine 8 Silvergate Bank voluntarily liquidates 9 Silicon Valley Bank fails 10 U.S. banks post their worst daily performance since 2020 11 Xi Jinping re-elected as President of China for an unprecedented third term 12 Signature Bank fails 13 U.S. policymakers lend extraordinary measures to support the banking system 14 OpenAI launches GPT-4 15 Consortium of Wall Street banks offer support to First Republic 16 Taylor Swift's buzzworthy Eras Tour kicks off 17 UBS buys Credit Suisse in a government-backed deal 18 Oil prices surge as OPEC+ announces surprise production cut 19 LVMH becomes first European company to reach $500 billion market value 20 JPMorgan Chase takes over First Republic 21 CDS spreads spike above 2011 levels as U.S. debt ceiling drama continues 22 WHO ends COVID-19 declaration of a global health emergency 23 Coronation of Charles III and his wife, Camilla, as King and Queen of the United Kingdom 24 Japan's TOPIX Index closes at highest level in over three decades 25 Nvidia AI-focused earnings report sends shares soaring 26 U.S. money market fund balances hit $5.4 trillion (another all-time high) 27 S&P 500 earnings yield, U.S. IG bond yields, and 3-month T-Bill yields converge to same rate 28 U.S. government suspends the debt ceiling 29 Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia reaccelerate rate hikes 30 LIV Golf and PGA merger 31 New York City covered in orange smoke from Canada wildfires 32 S&P 500 marks 20% rally from its October 2022 lows 33 Manchester City completes the treble — winning the league title, domestic cup, and European Championship League 34 The Federal Reserve “pauses” its most aggressive rate hikes in decades 35 Titan submersible implosion 36 Blinken becomes first U.S. Secretary of State to visit China in 5 years 37 VIX falls to its lowest level since early 2020 38 Wagner Group rebellion against Russian military 39 Apple stock hits an all-time high 40 USD Libor era comes to an end
This table shows the 40 events that occurred between January 2023 and June 2023. 1 Croatia becomes first country to join the euro area since 2015 2 China ends its Zero-COVID policy 3 The U.S. government hits its legal $31.4 trillion debt limit 4 “Balloon-gate” 5 A devastating earthquake strikes Turkey and Syria 6 Kansas City Chiefs win the Superbowl 7 One-year mark of the war in Ukraine 8 Silvergate Bank voluntarily liquidates 9 Silicon Valley Bank fails 10 U.S. banks post their worst daily performance since 2020 11 Xi Jinping re-elected as President of China for an unprecedented third term 12 Signature Bank fails 13 U.S. policymakers lend extraordinary measures to support the banking system 14 OpenAI launches GPT-4 15 Consortium of Wall Street banks offer support to First Republic 16 Taylor Swift's buzzworthy Eras Tour kicks off 17 UBS buys Credit Suisse in a government-backed deal 18 Oil prices surge as OPEC+ announces surprise production cut 19 LVMH becomes first European company to reach $500 billion market value 20 JPMorgan Chase takes over First Republic 21 CDS spreads spike above 2011 levels as U.S. debt ceiling drama continues 22 WHO ends COVID-19 declaration of a global health emergency 23 Coronation of Charles III and his wife, Camilla, as King and Queen of the United Kingdom 24 Japan's TOPIX Index closes at highest level in over three decades 25 Nvidia AI-focused earnings report sends shares soaring 26 U.S. money market fund balances hit $5.4 trillion (another all-time high) 27 S&P 500 earnings yield, U.S. IG bond yields, and 3-month T-Bill yields converge to same rate 28 U.S. government suspends the debt ceiling 29 Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia reaccelerate rate hikes 30 LIV Golf and PGA merger 31 New York City covered in orange smoke from Canada wildfires 32 S&P 500 marks 20% rally from its October 2022 lows 33 Manchester City completes the treble — winning the league title, domestic cup, and European Championship League 34 The Federal Reserve “pauses” its most aggressive rate hikes in decades 35 Titan submersible implosion 36 Blinken becomes first U.S. Secretary of State to visit China in 5 years 37 VIX falls to its lowest level since early 2020 38 Wagner Group rebellion against Russian military 39 Apple stock hits an all-time high 40 USD Libor era comes to an end

All market and economic data as of June 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

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  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
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  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

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  • The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets.

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