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European Market Outlook: A new chapter for corporate Europe

A look at the investment landscape across Europe

In the depths of the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis a few years later, many European companies slashed their dividends. Shareholders weren’t happy, but there was not much they could do about it. Flash forward to early 2024. European lenders and companies across sectors determined that their balance sheets were strong enough to distribute capital to shareholders.

Make no mistake: It’s a new chapter for Corporate Europe. Companies have become far more shareholder-friendly. The key evidence, even more than rising dividends: Companies are buying back their stock. Buybacks have long been a feature of U.S. markets, bolstering U.S. equity outperformance over the years. But the practice has traditionally been far less common on the Continent. At the same time, European net equity issuance has swung negative, another boon to shareholders. 

The trend toward shareholder-friendly corporate management—underappreciated by market participants—joins forces with improving economic fundamentals in the Eurozone. The consumer is healthy, bolstered by rising wages. The outlook for corporate profits is positive. Finally, interest rates look set to decline, providing a tailwind for consumers and businesses. By year-end, we will likely have seen more rate cuts from the ECB than the Fed. 

It all adds up to a supportive environment for European equities. It also affirms our view that the global equity rally will continue to broaden through 2024, to new regions (beyond the United States) and market caps (beyond the mega-cap darlings).

Optimistic European equity forecasters have been burned in the past, of course, as European stocks failed to live up to expectations. But we think European markets are at an inflection point, for structural and cyclical reasons. Shareholder-friendly corporate management represents a major structural shift. And because cyclical sectors dominate European markets, a pro-cyclical catalyst such as a rate cut could spark new investor interest in the region.

Structural shift: Shareholder-friendly corporates

Breaking with tradition: Share buybacks are on the rise

Line graph showing the rise in share buybacks
Sources: Datastream, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Investment Research, J.P. Morgan. Data as of February 29, 2024.

For decades, European corporates struggled with anemic economic growth and weak balance sheets, dependent on a fragile banking sector. Year after year, companies issued equity as virtually back-to-back crises pummeled businesses and markets. In response, many global investors pared their European exposures. Often they didn’t look back.

But in more recent quarters, investors have come to appreciate the shareholderfriendly changes. (A similar shift is occurring in Japan, as we discuss in a companion Global Perspectives article.)

From an investor’s point of view, a stock buyback signals corporate confidence, an alignment of management and shareholder interests. Since buybacks reduce the number of shares in the market, they create a more favorable balance of supply and demand for investors.

Finally, we expect investors to increasingly recognize that leading European companies, the region’s “national champions,” sell to a truly global consumer base. They tend to benefit from a global economy that has weathered a higher interest rate environment better than many had expected. We think the European economy will remain resilient over the coming year. 

A global customer base powers Europe’s “National Champions”

2023 revenue exposure of Europe’s National Champions by region

Chart showing the 2023 revenue exposure of Europe’s National Champions by region
Sources: Company reports, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan. Data as of December 31, 2023. Note: European National Champions refers to Safran, Scheider Electric, LVMH, Hermes, Ferrari, Novo Nordisk and ASML.
Read the full Mid-Year Outlook: A strong economy in a fragile world

European economic growth is translating to wage growth     

Across sectors and companies, improving economic fundamentals offer the potential for stronger economic growth, and in turn, rising revenues and profits.

Eurozone GDP in Q1 expanded by 0.5% year-over-year, up from essentially zero growth in 2H 2023. The composite euro area Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in March, the first time the survey has been in expansionary territory since May 2023.12 We expect that Eurozone growth will accelerate toward 1% by the end of 2024.

What’s more, real wage growth of nearly 2% will bolster the economy and corporate profits. That’s up from -6% a year ago and nearly double the pre-pandemic average. Consumers have money to spend.

Finally, we note a fading drag from tighter financial and lending conditions. In the latest ECB lending survey, the net number of banks reporting a tightening of lending standards fell to zero for the first time in four years.

We acknowledge risks to our outlook. Competition from Chinese manufacturers poses a meaningful threat to European companies. Chinese electric vehicle carmaker BYD, for example, could prove a tough rival to German auto manufacturers.

Then there are geopolitical risks. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent energy crisis heightened the risks of Europe’s dependence on energy imports. Conflict in the Red Sea has strained shipping routes, increasing costs for energy commodities.

Since the Middle East accounts for about a third of global oil production, escalating tensions in the region could prove destabilizing. In particular, a disruption of oil shipping in the critical Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices, and overall inflation, higher. Concerns remain regarding the region’s ability to diversify energy supply away from foreign oil, especially as European automakers struggle to sell electric vehicles at a competitive price.

European growth fundamentals look poised to strengthen

Line graph showing the recent rise in European growth fundamentals
Sources: J.P. Morgan, S&P Global, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of April 2024. Note: J.P. Morgan smoothed quarterly nowcast analyzes all macroeconomic data for a country to output an annualized quarterly GDP growth.

A broadening European equity rally

For quite some time, investors have been well served by an overweight to U.S. equities. We think that approach still makes sense over the long term. But especially as the equity rally broadens to new regions, improving economic fundamentals and shareholder-friendly corporate management in the Eurozone offer the potential for attractive returns in 2024 and beyond. Investors will want to take notice.

Read the full Mid-Year Outlook: A Strong Economy in a Fragile World
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The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to "stock market risk" meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.​

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