2020年中展望：我們對全球經濟損失和未來前景的看法

我們的最新市場前景展望－我們預期經濟將會復甦，同時循序漸進地為投資組合增加風險資產配置。隨着新冠肺炎第一波疫情即將成為過去，形勢逐漸明朗，我們希望趁此機會評估全球經濟損失，加深了解未來的市場走向。

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全球市場恐慌

經濟干擾和不確定性席捲全球

標普500指數在2月創下歷史新高。到了3月底，新冠疫情危機引發了過去百年來最嚴重的經濟衰退和熊市。本文將為您進一步闡釋金融市場經歷的各種不同轉變。

先抑後揚

市場開始抓住新常態

儘管美國全國新冠病例數攀升至超過200萬例，全球更錄得超過600萬例，但金融市場上投資者的恐慌情緒已經消散。

眼下的問題在於：哪些因素支撐股市走高?

眼下的市場回升似乎更像是壓抑後的反彈，而非來源於經濟復甦。

投資者大幅拋售風險資產，因為他們害怕全球大範圍封鎖措施會造成經濟損失，而且新冠疫情也代表了一場致命威脅。

隨着新冠疫情對全球經濟造成的影響範圍開始逐漸清晰，除了一些新興市場外，新增確診病例也轉趨穩定，世界各地經濟活動開始逐步恢復，政策制定者對金融市場提供了強大有力的支持。風險市場應聲上漲。

股市是否無懼於實體經濟的損傷?

全球市場策略師Jake Manoukian

BRG – JPMPB – Mid-Year Outlook: Jake – Transcript

Jake:

One of the most difficult questions that we've been struggling with and trying to answer for the last two months is: How can the stock market be doing so well when the situation on the ground and the real economy still seems so dire? Forty million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance, but the stock market is only 10% from its recent highs. It almost seems like the stock market is ignoring the damage in the real economy. But when you look underneath the surface, you start to realize that that isn't really the case.

The first thing that that helps you reconcile is remembering a framework that we put out in the midst of the COVID crisis. On March 23rd we said that we needed to see three parameters for risk assets to find a bottom. The first was a peak and then a decline in new COVID cases. The second was a swift response from the Federal Reserve to help fix issues and fix income markets, and the third is a robust fiscal support package from Congress. During that week we started to see signs that we were getting all three of those things. Markets found a bottom and have been rallying more or less ever since. Now, those three things didn't catalyze the entire rally, but what did is that, in general, the world has been getting better and not worse. And that means a lot to stock markets sometimes.

The other thing that's critical to remember is that the S&P 500 is not representative of the entire economy. Just, right off the bat, it's 500 of the largest stock companies in the country. It has well-established revenue streams and it has access to capital that not all businesses maybe on Main Street do. Then, when you consider the divergences underneath the surface of the S&P 500, it becomes clear that the market isn't really expecting a strong return to economic growth.

These kind of secular growth areas like technology and healthcare have really been buoying performance for the rest of the index, and when you have sectors like technology, which arguably is taking advantage of, and growing from, this socially distanced world, when they make up 40% of market cap and earnings that's a big deal.

On the flip side, the companies that are most levered to that cyclical, tangible economic growth, like banks and energy, are still pricing in significant struts. So, at once it doesn't seem like markets are really expecting a robust return to economic growth; they're just picking winners and losers and reflecting the reality of the situation.

The most interesting thing that's been happening recently is that some of those cyclically levered companies -so think energy and banks- have been starting to catch up to those secular growth. And if that were to play out further that would represent a material positive to the outlook. So, that's something that we're watching.

END

BRG – JPMPB – Mid-Year Outlook: Jake – Text Alternative Script

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J.P.Morgan.

Text on screen:

Investment Insights: Is the stock market ignoring the damage in the real economy?

On screen:

A man with short black hair and dark eyes speaks to us remotely.

Text on screen:

Jake Manoukian, Global Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

Jake:

One of the most difficult questions that we've been struggling with and trying to answer for the last two months is: How can the stock market be doing so well when the situation on the ground and the real economy still seems so dire? Forty million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance, but the stock market is only 10% from its recent highs. It almost seems like the stock market is ignoring the damage in the real economy.

Text on screen:

Forty million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance, but the stock market is only 10% from its recent highs.

Jake:

But when you look underneath the surface, you start to realize that that isn't really the case.

The first thing that that helps you reconcile is remembering a framework that we put out in the midst of the COVID crisis. On March 23rd we said that we needed to see three parameters for risk assets to find a bottom. The first was a peak and then a decline in new COVID cases. The second was a swift response from the Federal Reserve to help fix issues and fix income markets, and the third is a robust fiscal support package from Congress.

Text on screen:

Three parameters for risk assets to find a bottom.

1. Peak and then decline in new COVID cases.

2. Swift response from the Federal Reserve.

3. Robust fiscal support package from Congress.

Jake:

During that week we started to see signs that we were getting all three of those things. Markets found a bottom and have been rallying more or less ever since. Now, those three things didn't catalyze the entire rally, but what did is that, in general, the world has been getting better and not worse. And that means a lot to stock markets sometimes.

Text on screen:

S&P 500 is not representative of the entire economy. It's 500 of the largest stock companies in the country.

Jake:

The other thing that's critical to remember is that the S&P 500 is not representative of the entire economy. Just, right off the bat, it's 500 of the largest stock companies in the country. It has well-established revenue streams and it has access to capital that not all businesses maybe on Main Street do. Then, when you consider the divergences underneath the surface of the S&P 500, it becomes clear that the market isn't really expecting a strong return to economic growth.

These kind of secular growth areas like technology and healthcare have really been buoying performance for the rest of the index, and when you have sectors like technology, which arguably is taking advantage of, and growing from, this socially distanced world, when they make up 40% of market cap and earnings that's a big deal.

On screen:

A line chart appears labeled: "Many sectors have bounced back quickly." The chart reads: "Price Index - December 31^st, 2019 = 100." The chart shows:

· FANG+ at about 125 in mid-February, at about 85 in mid-March, and at about 115 in mid-May.

· E-Commerce at about 110 in mid-February, at about 78 in mid-March, and at about 108 in mid-May.

· Biotech at about 102 in mid-February, at about 72 in mid-March, and at about 105 in mid-May.

· Home Improvement at about 110 in mid-February, at about 68 in mid-March, and at about 102 in mid-May.

· Technology at about 110 in mid-February, at about 80 in mid-March, and at about 102 in mid-May.

Side note:

Small print text appears.

Text on screen:

Source: FactSet, Standard & Poors. May 25th, 2020.

Jake:

On the flip side, the companies that are most levered to that cyclical, tangible economic growth, like banks and energy, are still pricing in significant struts. So, at once it doesn't seem like markets are really expecting a robust return to economic growth; they're just picking winners and losers and reflecting the reality of the situation.

The most interesting thing that's been happening recently is that some of those cyclically levered companies -so think energy and banks- have been starting to catch up to those secular growth companies like technology.

Text on screen:

Trend to watch:

Cyclically levered companies may start to catch up to secular growth companies.

Jake:

And if that were to play out further that would represent a material positive to the outlook. So, that's something that we're watching.

Logo:

J.P.Morgan.

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經濟實況

市場目前正在挑選贏家，但看來預計經濟將會溫和復甦

即使經過最近一輪反彈之後，市場對短期經濟前景似乎仍然缺乏信心。如果當前金融市場的利好勢頭持續，周期性股票、固定收益資產、貨幣和大宗商品的資產價格有望進一步上漲。

在這場危機中，市場上也存在著一些顯著的「贏家」，當中不少與今年年初我們發布的《2020年市場展望》中提出的全球「大趨勢」密切相關。這兩股大趨勢——數位化轉型和醫療創新，將會為市場提供非常具有吸引力的長期行業增長機遇，且我們預期這一市場走勢將會繼續。事實上，新冠疫情危機可能加速了經濟朝向全面數位化方向轉型發展，而醫療創新可能會為這一場疫情提供解決方案。

「超級趨勢」：精選未來十年的龍頭板塊

Anastasia Amoroso 摩根大通私人銀行跨資產主題策略部主管

Anastasia Amoroso:

My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. The world as we know it has been upended by the recent COVID pandemic and left many of us wondering, what does the new normal look like? What is this world post-COVID going to be? The biggest takeaway is that COVID has significantly strengthened and accelerated many of the durable trends that were in place even before that. We like to call them megatrends.

So what is a megatrend? It is a trend that is going to change and shape, and disrupt our lives not only in the next couple of quarters, but in the next three to five years. So we are focused on three such megatrends in particular. Digital transformation, healthcare innovation and sustainability. Now these are not new trends, per se, and the sectors that are benefiting from them, tech and healthcare, have done quite well. So why do we think these sectors and stocks are going to continue to deliver outperformance?

These megatrends are helping fuel double-digit earnings growth for parts of tech, biotech and clean energy sectors. And what we found is that, all else equal, these well above benchmark growth rates is what tended to drive long-term outperformance. And we take it a step further. It may be that, very near term, a lot of optimism has been priced in, but the longer term, we think not enough optimism has been priced in.

This is because while industry forecasts are ambitious, company and analyst estimates tend to be quite conservative. Let me give you a few examples of what we think is yet to be priced in but could lead to lasting outperformance of tech, biotech and clean energy. We know that in technology, growth and data is the most prominent trend in technologies. Like cloud computing, ultra-fast 5G and artificial intelligence are helping us capture this trend. But we’re still so early in the very early stages of these technologies.

For example, 5G smartphone adoption may reach only 15% by the end of 2020. The [inaudible 00:02:01] option of the cloud is running at only 20%, although this is being significantly and rapidly accelerated due to COVID. And for artificial intelligence, only 20% of enterprises have adopted AI at scale. So the opportunity to scale up these technologies is immense. And by the way, not to mention new technologies like augmented reality, remote surgery or autonomous driving that the former technologies will help enable.

In fact, enterprise adoption of 5G is a potential $700 billion opportunity for service providers, yet to be captured. And artificial intelligence is a $60 trillion opportunity to add economic value by 2030, also yet to be captured. In healthcare, innovation is certainly not new. But the speed of it is. In 2003, it took 13 years to complete the first reference sequence of the full human genome. Today, we can sequence a genome in less than 24 hours.

The other thing that’s really interesting in healthcare is that there’s this confluence of breakthroughs in genetics and artificial intelligence that is incredibly powerful, and it is further accelerating basic innovation. So is all of that captured evaluations? We don’t think so.

Given the current level of R&D, we can see $255 billion in additional industry revenues by 2024. If that pans out and half of that accrues to biotech, the revenues of the NASDAQ Biotech Index will almost double from today’s levels. This is not yet enterprised today, but will be in the future as drug approvals go from concepts and probabilities to certainties and realities. This robust pipeline of new molecules is fueling 27% average growth rate through 2022, and this is why we think biotech has a chance to break out of this five-year trading range and break out to the outside.

Sustainability will be one of the defining movements of this decade. How can we make the most efficient use of our natural resources while minimizing the damage to the environment and ensuring everybody has access to basics like food, water and clean air? That’s what sustainability is about, and more. We’ll consider that only 26% of our global energy mix today is from renewables. Only 9% of our companies and governments are designed for a circular economy.

The opportunity to increase this percentage is immense. Now this has been well telegraphed, but looking back at prior forecasts, we find that, time and time again, the actual adoption, the actual increase in renewables generation outpaced those forecasts. And that was when the cost of wind and solar was higher than it is today. We’ve seen that fall significantly. And now it is becoming not only a responsible decision for companies to adopt to move to circular concepts and clean energy concepts, but it is also increasingly becoming an economic decision.

So we think it is likely that the speed of adoption of sustainability practices like clean energy will [inaudible 00:04:56] to the outside, ultimately helping drive those stocks’ outperformance. Thank you so much for your interest in this topic. This is just a start. We will continue to update on upcoming developments and new technologies like augmented reality, remote surgery, precision health, circular economy, food tech and much, much more. So we look forward to working with you in finding investment opportunities within each one of these megatrends.

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Text on screen:

Megatrends. Which sectors are poised to outperform in the next decade?

On screen:

An executive with long blonde hair and green eyes, Anastasia Amoroso, speaks to us remotely.

Text on screen:

Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

Ms. Amoroso:

My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. The world as we know it has been upended by the recent COVID pandemic and left many of us wondering, what does the new normal look like? What is this world post-COVID going to be? The biggest takeaway is that COVID has significantly strengthened and accelerated many of the durable trends that were in place even before that. We like to call them megatrends.

So what is a megatrend? It is a trend that is going to change and shape, and disrupt our lives not only in the next couple of quarters, but over the next three to five years. So we are focused on three such megatrends in particular: digital transformation, healthcare innovation and sustainability. Now these are not new trends per se, and the sectors that are benefiting from them, tech and healthcare, have done quite well. So why do we think these sectors and stocks are going to continue to deliver outperformance?

These megatrends are helping fuel double-digit earnings growth for parts of tech, biotech and clean energy sectors. And what we found is that, all else equal, these well-above benchmark growth rates is what tended to drive long-term outperformance.

On screen:

A bar chart appears, labeled "Tech and Biotech have cumulatively (though not always consistently) outperformed over the past two decades." The chart shows:

SPX at about 0.5% between 2001 and 2005;

SPX at about 3% between 2006 and 2010;

SPX at about 2% between 2001 and 2010;

SPX at about 12% between 2011 and 2015;

SPX at about 13% between 2016 and 2019;

SPX at about 6%, overall, between 2001 and 2019.

Tech at about negative 3% between 2001 and 2005;

Tech at about 10% between 2006 and 2010;

Tech at about 3% between 2001 and 2010;

Tech at about 13% between 2011 and 2015;

Tech at about 24% between 2016 and 2019;

Tech at about 10%, overall, between 2001 and 2019.

Biotech at about 7% between 2001 and 2005;

Biotech at about 0% between 2006 and 2010;

Biotech at about 2.5% between 2001 and 2010;

Biotech at about 35% between 2011 and 2015;

Biotech at about 2% between 2016 and 2019;

Biotech at about 11%, overall, between 2001 and 2019.

Side note:

Small print text appears.

Text on screen:

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet. As of May 1st. 2020.

Ms. Amoroso:

And we take it a step further. It may be that, very near term, a lot of optimism has been priced in, but the longer term, we think not enough optimism has been priced in. This is because while industry forecasts are ambitious, company and analyst estimates tend to be quite conservative. Let me give you a few examples of what we think is yet to be priced in but could lead to lasting outperformance of tech, biotech and clean energy.

Text on screen:

Digital Transformation.

Ms. Amoroso:

We know that in technology, growth and data is the most prominent trend in technologies. Like cloud computing, ultra-fast 5G and artificial intelligence are helping us capture this trend. But we’re still so early in the very early stages of these technologies. For example, 5G smartphone adoption may reach only 15% by the end of 2020. The enterprise adoption of the cloud is running at only 20%, although this is being significantly and rapidly accelerated due to COVID. And for artificial intelligence, only 20% of enterprises have adopted AI at scale.

On screen:

A bar graph labeled "We are still in early stages of adoption of new technologies" shows the adoption rates for 5G, cloud, and AI.

Text on screen:

Small print text: Source: "Global Handset Model," J.P. Morgan North America Research. March 2020. "Cloud Adoption to accelerate IT modernization." McKinsey 2018. "Talent and workforce effects in the age of AI." Deloitte. March 2020.

Ms. Amoroso:

So the opportunity to scale up these technologies is immense. And by the way, not to mention new technologies like augmented reality, remote surgery or autonomous driving that the former technologies will help enable. In fact, enterprise adoption of 5G is a potential $700 billion opportunity for service providers, yet to be captured. And artificial intelligence is a $60 trillion opportunity to add economic value by 2030, also yet to be captured.

In healthcare, innovation is certainly not new. But the speed of it is. In 2003, it took 13 years to complete the first reference sequence of the full human genome. Today, we can sequence a genome in less than 24 hours. The other thing that’s really interesting in healthcare is that there’s this confluence of breakthroughs in genetics and artificial intelligence that is incredibly powerful, and it is further accelerating basic innovation.

So is all of that captured evaluations? We don’t think so. Given the current level of R&D, we can see $255 billion in additional industry revenues by 2024. If that pans out and half of that accrues to biotech, the revenues of the NASDAQ Biotech Index will almost double from today’s levels.

On screen:

A bar chart appears, labeled "Sales should rebound, orphan drug market to almost double." It shows values, in 2018, with Prescription, excluding generics and orphan, at about 600 billion US Dollars; Orphan, at about 700 billion US Dollars; and Generics, at about 800 billion US Dollars. (The chart shows that this represents a slight increase in a steady market, since 2010.)

The chart also forecasts sharp growth. It projects, by 2024: Prescription, excluding generics and orphan, to be nearly 800 billion US Dollars; Orphan, to be about 1000 billion US Dollars; and Generics, to be about 1100 billion US Dollars.

Side note:

Small print text appears.

Text on screen:

Compound Annual Growth Rate, 2019 to 2024: 6.9%.

Source: "World preview 2019, Outlook to 2024," EvaluatePharma Vision. May 2019.

Ms. Amoroso:

This is not yet enterprised today, but will be in the future as drug approvals go from concepts and probabilities to certainties and realities. This robust pipeline of new molecules is fueling 27% average growth rate through 2022, and this is why we think biotech has a chance to break out of this five-year trading range and break out to the outside.

Sustainability will be one of the defining movements of this decade. How can we make the most efficient use of our natural resources while minimizing the damage to the environment and ensuring everybody has access to basics, like food, water, and clean air? That’s what sustainability is about, and more. We’ll consider that only 26% of our global energy mix today is from renewables. Only 9% of our companies and governments are designed for a circular economy.

The opportunity to increase this percentage is immense. Now this has been well telegraphed, but looking back at prior forecasts, we find that time and time again, the actual adoption, the actual increase in renewables generation outpaced those forecasts. And that was when the cost of wind and solar was higher than it is today. We’ve seen that fall significantly. And now it is becoming not only a responsible decision for companies to adopt to move to circular concepts and clean energy concepts, but it is also increasingly becoming an economic decision.

On screen:

A line chart appears, labeled "Cost of wind, solar, natural gas, and coal." It shows:

Wind's levelized cost of energy at 135 in 2009 and at about 42 in 2018;

Wind's dollar per megawatt hour at about 375 in 2009 and at about 5 in 2018;

Solar's levelized cost of energy at 130 in 2009 and at about 42 in 2018;

Solar's dollar per megawatt hour at about 375 in 2009 and at about 40 in 2018;

Natural gas's levelized cost of energy at about 84 in 2009 and at about 60 in 2018;

Natural gas's dollar per megawatt hour at about 150 in 2009 and at about 75 in 2018;

Coal's levelized cost of energy at 110 in 2009 and at about 105 in 2018;

Coal's dollar per megawatt hour at about 260 in 2009 and at about 250 in 2018.

Side note:

Small print text appears.

Text on screen:

Source: Lazard, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. LCOE is "levelized" cost of energy, the net present value of the unit cost of electricity over the lifetime of a generating asset.

It is often taken as a proxy for the average price that the generating asset must receive in a market to break even over its lifetime. Data is based on availability as of November 30th, 2019.

Ms. Amoroso:

So we think it is likely that the speed of adoption of sustainability practices like clean energy will surprise to the outside, ultimately helping drive those stocks’ outperformance. Thank you so much for your interest in this topic. This is just a start. We will continue to update on upcoming developments and new technologies like augmented reality, remote surgery, precision health, circular economy, food tech, and much, much more. So we look forward to working with you in finding investment opportunities within each one of these megatrends.