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A whirlwind start to 2023: Your questions, answered

Feb 17, 2023

Is the economy really re-accelerating? Is the Fed making a grave mistake by easing up? Get answers to top questions about the U.S. economy, investing and more.

Jacob Manoukian, U.S. Head of Investment Strategy
Matthew Landon, Global Investment Strategist

 

Our Top Market Takeaways for February 17, 2023

Market update

No love lost on inflation

It’s getting warmer. Another week of strong economic data prints sent bond yields surging while equities zigzagged.

Tuesday’s U.S. CPI print was the main event. The numbers for January came in broadly as expected—headline prices grew at a +0.5% m/m pace and core +0.4% m/m—but the details suggest a stickier inflation picture than many had presumed. 

Under the hood, energy and used auto prices fell on the month, but there is still upward pressure coming from services inflation. Shelter (think rent) prices accounted for nearly half of the monthly increase in headline prices. But given that real-time rent indicators suggest this will ease in the months ahead, the key piece of the puzzle really lies with services ex-shelter inflation, which is still running at a pace that is too brisk for comfort.

This, coupled with the recent strong jobs report, retail sales and housing data, has materially shifted market expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will have to hike rates. Investors now expect policymakers to reach a rate of 5.3% (with just one cut thereafter), compared to 4.8% (with two cuts by year-end) just two weeks ago. In our view, this all increases the odds that the Fed will keep hiking and remain in restrictive territory for longer.

Across the pond, stocks in Europe continued to march higher thanks to an improving energy situation and tailwinds from China’s reopening. The Stoxx Europe 600 headed into Friday with a clean sweep of days in the green for the week—now up more than 20% from September lows.

All in all, it’s been quite a start to the new year! Economic data seems strong, equity markets have rallied even though bond yields are still high, it hasn’t snowed in New York City, and fighter jets had to shoot down UFOs on Super Bowl Sunday. It seems like a lot to keep track of, so we wanted to take a stab at answering some frequently asked questions.

Spotlight

Quick answers to top questions
 

Is the economy re-accelerating? In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend! Our take is that the January data we have seen signal a solid growth backdrop for now, not a re-acceleration. While the retail sales and labor market data crushed expectations, we are wary of seasonal adjustment issues that flatter the picture. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has had some trouble around holiday periods, especially during COVID. The extreme strength in restaurants and department stores after notable weakness in November and December makes us take the data with a grain of salt. Further, January was warmer than usual, which is good for economic activity. Warm weather can support establishments such as restaurants and auto dealers relative to “typical” January conditions. In all, the Economic Surprise Index is signaling that the economy is doing just a touch better than most economists expected, but we hesitate to call it a re-acceleration.

U.S. DATA HAS SURPRISED TO THE UPSIDE THIS YEAR

Bloomberg Economic U.S. Surprise Index

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of February 15, 2023.
This chart shows the Bloomberg Economic U.S. Surprise Index from 2018 to 2023. It began at 0.94 and fell to a series low of -0.52 by March 2019. It then rose steadily to 0.88 by November 2020, then fell back to -0.14 by September 2021. It rallied to 0.38 by the end of November 2021 and fell to -0.29 in June 2022. By February 2023, it reached 0.14.
Is the Fed making a mistake by easing up on markets? Again, cue Lee. Not so fast, my friend! The key takeaway: Rates are still high enough to keep growth below trend. Some of the best arguments are that the housing market is still as unaffordable relative to median incomes as it has been since 1990, bank lending standards are tight (which hampers capex and manufacturing activity), and non-mortgage consumer interest payments are rising. On that last point, credit card interest rates are above 20%! The path back down the 2% inflation is going to be bumpy, but we think the Fed’s path that is reflected in the rates market will be enough to eventually work.

NEW HOME SALES UNDER PRESSURE FROM UNAFFORDABILITY

Sources: NAR, Fannie Mae, Census Bureau. Data as of December 31, 2022. Note: Annual payment for new home based on median price and 30Y mortgage rate as a % of median household income.
This chart shows an American’s mortgage payment as a % of median household income and U.S. new home sales (in thousands) from 1972 to 2022. The mortgage payment as % of income began at 20 and rose steadily to a series high of 59% by the end of October 1981. It fell to 25% by January 1999 and 19% by April 2020. By December 2022, it reached 38%. Meanwhile, U.S. new home sales began at 640 and dipped to 338 by early 1982. It then rose to a series high of 1,389 by April 2005 and fell to a series low of 270 by February 2011. It then rose to 1,036 in August 2020 and dipped to 616 by December 2022.
Will the recent equity rally hold? Given lower near-term recession risks and improving fundamentals for many parts of the market relative to last year, we think the equity rally has been fair, and we feel good about the asset class over the next year and beyond. That said, risks remain: Inflation is still high and the Fed still has its foot on the brake. We are cautious of choppy trading over the coming months. The good news is that recent strength has been accompanied by lower volatility, meaning that investors can buy protection more cheaply to hedge positions over the next 6–12 months.

IMPLIED EQUITY VOLATILITY NEAR LOWEST LEVELS IN A YEAR

VIX index

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of February 16, 2023.
This chart shows the VIX Index from February 2022 to February 2023. It began at 22 and rose to 36 by March 2022. It fell to 19 by April 2022 and rose again to 34.8 by May 2022. It dipped to 24 by June 2022 and rose to 34 two weeks later. It fell to 20 by mid-August 2022 and rose to 34 in October 2022. By February 2023, it reached 20.

When is the muni market going to loosen up a bit? Hopefully soon! Investors came into the year with an insatiable appetite for municipal bonds, which has made municipals look expensive relative to Treasury bonds (especially on the front end). But there are some signs that we could loosen up a bit soon. Some large new issue deals came to the market in the last few weeks, and the supply picture looks like it should keep getting better as we get into spring (March is a net positive supply month).

Are we thinking through the implications of possible UFO/extraterrestrial activity on the economic and market outlook? No, but the last three years in markets have taught us to never say never…

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All market and economic data as of February 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

The Bloomberg Economic U.S. Surprise Index measures whether agents are more optimistic or pessimist about the real economy than indicated by actual data releases.

The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index call and put options.

Indices are not investment products and may not be considered for investment.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

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  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
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  • Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This material should not be regarded as investment research or a J.P. Morgan investment research report.

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