Abbiamo aggiornato le nostre prospettive di mercato. Prevediamo una ripresa e stiamo gradualmente incrementando l'esposizione dei portafogli alle classi di attivo più rischiose. La prima ondata della pandemia sta volgendo al termine. La situazione si sta schiarendo quanto basta per procedere a una stima dei danni e farci un'idea di ciò che ci aspetta.
Panico sui mercati
Il mondo è stato travolto da turbolenze economiche e incerte
A febbraio l'S&P 500 ha raggiunto un massimo storico. A fine marzo la crisi del COVID-19 ha innescato una contrazione economica e una fase ribassista tra le più profonde dell'ultimo secolo su scala globale. Di seguito ripercorriamo l'evolversi della situazione.
Rally da sollievo
Il mercato ha iniziato a fare i conti con la nuova normalità
Il panico sui mercati si è dissipato, anche se il numero di contagi è salito a 1,8 milioni negli Stati Uniti e ad oltre 6 milioni di casi in tutto il mondo.
La domanda è: perché?
La nostra risposta: il rally iniziale sembra essere più una manifestazione di sollievo che una ripresa economica.
Gli investitori hanno venduto le classi di attivo più rischiose poiché erano terrorizzati dalle conseguenze economiche di un lockdown diffuso, quando il COVID-19 rappresentava una minaccia esistenziale.
In seguito, l'entità dell'impatto economico del coronavirus è emersa con maggiore chiarezza; la curva dei contagi si è stabilizzata (con l'eccezione di alcuni mercati emergenti), l'economia mondiale ha iniziato a ripartire e le autorità hanno offerto un deciso supporto, innescando così un rialzo delle classi di attivo più rischiose.
Is the stock market ignoring the damage in the real economy?
Jake Manoukian, Global Market Strategist
BRG – JPMPB – Mid-Year Outlook: Jake – Transcript
Jake:
One of the most difficult questions that we've been struggling with and trying to answer for the last two months is: How can the stock market be doing so well when the situation on the ground and the real economy still seems so dire? Forty million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance, but the stock market is only 10% from its recent highs. It almost seems like the stock market is ignoring the damage in the real economy. But when you look underneath the surface, you start to realize that that isn't really the case.
The first thing that that helps you reconcile is remembering a framework that we put out in the midst of the COVID crisis. On March 23rd we said that we needed to see three parameters for risk assets to find a bottom. The first was a peak and then a decline in new COVID cases. The second was a swift response from the Federal Reserve to help fix issues and fix income markets, and the third is a robust fiscal support package from Congress. During that week we started to see signs that we were getting all three of those things. Markets found a bottom and have been rallying more or less ever since. Now, those three things didn't catalyze the entire rally, but what did is that, in general, the world has been getting better and not worse. And that means a lot to stock markets sometimes.
The other thing that's critical to remember is that the S&P 500 is not representative of the entire economy. Just, right off the bat, it's 500 of the largest stock companies in the country. It has well-established revenue streams and it has access to capital that not all businesses maybe on Main Street do. Then, when you consider the divergences underneath the surface of the S&P 500, it becomes clear that the market isn't really expecting a strong return to economic growth.
These kind of secular growth areas like technology and healthcare have really been buoying performance for the rest of the index, and when you have sectors like technology, which arguably is taking advantage of, and growing from, this socially distanced world, when they make up 40% of market cap and earnings that's a big deal.
On the flip side, the companies that are most levered to that cyclical, tangible economic growth, like banks and energy, are still pricing in significant struts. So, at once it doesn't seem like markets are really expecting a robust return to economic growth; they're just picking winners and losers and reflecting the reality of the situation.
The most interesting thing that's been happening recently is that some of those cyclically levered companies -so think energy and banks- have been starting to catch up to those secular growth. And if that were to play out further that would represent a material positive to the outlook. So, that's something that we're watching.
END
BRG – JPMPB – Mid-Year Outlook: Jake – Text Alternative Script
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Investment Insights: Is the stock market ignoring the damage in the real economy?
On screen:
A man with short black hair and dark eyes speaks to us remotely.
Text on screen:
Jake Manoukian, Global Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Jake:
One of the most difficult questions that we've been struggling with and trying to answer for the last two months is: How can the stock market be doing so well when the situation on the ground and the real economy still seems so dire? Forty million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance, but the stock market is only 10% from its recent highs. It almost seems like the stock market is ignoring the damage in the real economy.
Text on screen:
Forty million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance, but the stock market is only 10% from its recent highs.
But when you look underneath the surface, you start to realize that that isn't really the case.
The first thing that that helps you reconcile is remembering a framework that we put out in the midst of the COVID crisis. On March 23rd we said that we needed to see three parameters for risk assets to find a bottom. The first was a peak and then a decline in new COVID cases. The second was a swift response from the Federal Reserve to help fix issues and fix income markets, and the third is a robust fiscal support package from Congress.
Text on screen:
Three parameters for risk assets to find a bottom.
1. Peak and then decline in new COVID cases.
2. Swift response from the Federal Reserve.
3. Robust fiscal support package from Congress.
Jake:
During that week we started to see signs that we were getting all three of those things. Markets found a bottom and have been rallying more or less ever since. Now, those three things didn't catalyze the entire rally, but what did is that, in general, the world has been getting better and not worse. And that means a lot to stock markets sometimes.
Text on screen:
S&P 500 is not representative of the entire economy. It's 500 of the largest stock companies in the country.
Jake:
The other thing that's critical to remember is that the S&P 500 is not representative of the entire economy. Just, right off the bat, it's 500 of the largest stock companies in the country. It has well-established revenue streams and it has access to capital that not all businesses maybe on Main Street do. Then, when you consider the divergences underneath the surface of the S&P 500, it becomes clear that the market isn't really expecting a strong return to economic growth.
These kind of secular growth areas like technology and healthcare have really been buoying performance for the rest of the index, and when you have sectors like technology, which arguably is taking advantage of, and growing from, this socially distanced world, when they make up 40% of market cap and earnings that's a big deal.
On screen:
A line chart appears labeled: "Many sectors have bounced back quickly." The chart reads: "Price Index - December 31st, 2019 = 100." The chart shows:
· FANG+ at about 125 in mid-February, at about 85 in mid-March, and at about 115 in mid-May.
· E-Commerce at about 110 in mid-February, at about 78 in mid-March, and at about 108 in mid-May.
· Biotech at about 102 in mid-February, at about 72 in mid-March, and at about 105 in mid-May.
· Home Improvement at about 110 in mid-February, at about 68 in mid-March, and at about 102 in mid-May.
· Technology at about 110 in mid-February, at about 80 in mid-March, and at about 102 in mid-May.
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Small print text appears.
Text on screen:
Source: FactSet, Standard & Poors. May 25th, 2020.
Jake:
On the flip side, the companies that are most levered to that cyclical, tangible economic growth, like banks and energy, are still pricing in significant struts. So, at once it doesn't seem like markets are really expecting a robust return to economic growth; they're just picking winners and losers and reflecting the reality of the situation.
The most interesting thing that's been happening recently is that some of those cyclically levered companies -so think energy and banks- have been starting to catch up to those secular growth companies like technology.
Text on screen:
Trend to watch:
Cyclically levered companies may start to catch up to secular growth companies.
Jake:
And if that were to play out further that would represent a material positive to the outlook. So, that's something that we're watching.
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Realtà economiche
Ora i mercati stanno selezionando i titoli vincenti, ma sembrano scontare una ripresa sottotono
I mercati sembrano scontare ancora prospettive economiche a breve termine poco entusiasmanti, nonostante il recente rally. Le azioni cicliche, il reddito fisso, le valute e le materie prime registrerebbero un ulteriore rialzo se l'attuale traiettoria venisse mantenuta.
Nel corso della crisi si sono distinti alcuni "vincitori" degni di nota, molti dei quali collegati ai due "mega-trend" che abbiamo evidenziato nelle prospettive di mercato 2020 che abbiamo pubblicato all'inizio dell'anno. Questi mega-trend – trasformazione digitale e innovazione sanitaria – offrono interessanti opportunità secolari che dovrebbero a nostro avviso proseguire. Infatti, è probabile che la crisi del COVID-19 abbia accelerato la transizione verso un'economia che pone il digitale in primo piano, senza contare che l'innovazione in campo sanitario potrebbe risolvere la pandemia.
Megatrends: Which sectors are poised to outperform in the next decade?
Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy
Anastasia Amoroso:
My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. The world as we know it has been upended by the recent COVID pandemic and left many of us wondering, what does the new normal look like? What is this world post-COVID going to be? The biggest takeaway is that COVID has significantly strengthened and accelerated many of the durable trends that were in place even before that. We like to call them megatrends.
So what is a megatrend? It is a trend that is going to change and shape, and disrupt our lives not only in the next couple of quarters, but in the next three to five years. So we are focused on three such megatrends in particular. Digital transformation, healthcare innovation and sustainability. Now these are not new trends, per se, and the sectors that are benefiting from them, tech and healthcare, have done quite well. So why do we think these sectors and stocks are going to continue to deliver outperformance?
These megatrends are helping fuel double-digit earnings growth for parts of tech, biotech and clean energy sectors. And what we found is that, all else equal, these well above benchmark growth rates is what tended to drive long-term outperformance. And we take it a step further. It may be that, very near term, a lot of optimism has been priced in, but the longer term, we think not enough optimism has been priced in.
This is because while industry forecasts are ambitious, company and analyst estimates tend to be quite conservative. Let me give you a few examples of what we think is yet to be priced in but could lead to lasting outperformance of tech, biotech and clean energy. We know that in technology, growth and data is the most prominent trend in technologies. Like cloud computing, ultra-fast 5G and artificial intelligence are helping us capture this trend. But we’re still so early in the very early stages of these technologies.
For example, 5G smartphone adoption may reach only 15% by the end of 2020. The [inaudible 00:02:01] option of the cloud is running at only 20%, although this is being significantly and rapidly accelerated due to COVID. And for artificial intelligence, only 20% of enterprises have adopted AI at scale. So the opportunity to scale up these technologies is immense. And by the way, not to mention new technologies like augmented reality, remote surgery or autonomous driving that the former technologies will help enable.
In fact, enterprise adoption of 5G is a potential $700 billion opportunity for service providers, yet to be captured. And artificial intelligence is a $60 trillion opportunity to add economic value by 2030, also yet to be captured. In healthcare, innovation is certainly not new. But the speed of it is. In 2003, it took 13 years to complete the first reference sequence of the full human genome. Today, we can sequence a genome in less than 24 hours.
The other thing that’s really interesting in healthcare is that there’s this confluence of breakthroughs in genetics and artificial intelligence that is incredibly powerful, and it is further accelerating basic innovation. So is all of that captured evaluations? We don’t think so.
Given the current level of R&D, we can see $255 billion in additional industry revenues by 2024. If that pans out and half of that accrues to biotech, the revenues of the NASDAQ Biotech Index will almost double from today’s levels. This is not yet enterprised today, but will be in the future as drug approvals go from concepts and probabilities to certainties and realities. This robust pipeline of new molecules is fueling 27% average growth rate through 2022, and this is why we think biotech has a chance to break out of this five-year trading range and break out to the outside.
Sustainability will be one of the defining movements of this decade. How can we make the most efficient use of our natural resources while minimizing the damage to the environment and ensuring everybody has access to basics like food, water and clean air? That’s what sustainability is about, and more. We’ll consider that only 26% of our global energy mix today is from renewables. Only 9% of our companies and governments are designed for a circular economy.
The opportunity to increase this percentage is immense. Now this has been well telegraphed, but looking back at prior forecasts, we find that, time and time again, the actual adoption, the actual increase in renewables generation outpaced those forecasts. And that was when the cost of wind and solar was higher than it is today. We’ve seen that fall significantly. And now it is becoming not only a responsible decision for companies to adopt to move to circular concepts and clean energy concepts, but it is also increasingly becoming an economic decision.
So we think it is likely that the speed of adoption of sustainability practices like clean energy will [inaudible 00:04:56] to the outside, ultimately helping drive those stocks’ outperformance. Thank you so much for your interest in this topic. This is just a start. We will continue to update on upcoming developments and new technologies like augmented reality, remote surgery, precision health, circular economy, food tech and much, much more. So we look forward to working with you in finding investment opportunities within each one of these megatrends.
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Megatrends. Which sectors are poised to outperform in the next decade?
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An executive with long blonde hair and green eyes, Anastasia Amoroso, speaks to us remotely.
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Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Ms. Amoroso:
My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. The world as we know it has been upended by the recent COVID pandemic and left many of us wondering, what does the new normal look like? What is this world post-COVID going to be? The biggest takeaway is that COVID has significantly strengthened and accelerated many of the durable trends that were in place even before that. We like to call them megatrends.
So what is a megatrend? It is a trend that is going to change and shape, and disrupt our lives not only in the next couple of quarters, but over the next three to five years. So we are focused on three such megatrends in particular: digital transformation, healthcare innovation and sustainability. Now these are not new trends per se, and the sectors that are benefiting from them, tech and healthcare, have done quite well. So why do we think these sectors and stocks are going to continue to deliver outperformance?
These megatrends are helping fuel double-digit earnings growth for parts of tech, biotech and clean energy sectors. And what we found is that, all else equal, these well-above benchmark growth rates is what tended to drive long-term outperformance.
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A bar chart appears, labeled "Tech and Biotech have cumulatively (though not always consistently) outperformed over the past two decades." The chart shows:
SPX at about 0.5% between 2001 and 2005;
SPX at about 3% between 2006 and 2010;
SPX at about 2% between 2001 and 2010;
SPX at about 12% between 2011 and 2015;
SPX at about 13% between 2016 and 2019;
SPX at about 6%, overall, between 2001 and 2019.
Tech at about negative 3% between 2001 and 2005;
Tech at about 10% between 2006 and 2010;
Tech at about 3% between 2001 and 2010;
Tech at about 13% between 2011 and 2015;
Tech at about 24% between 2016 and 2019;
Tech at about 10%, overall, between 2001 and 2019.
Biotech at about 7% between 2001 and 2005;
Biotech at about 0% between 2006 and 2010;
Biotech at about 2.5% between 2001 and 2010;
Biotech at about 35% between 2011 and 2015;
Biotech at about 2% between 2016 and 2019;
Biotech at about 11%, overall, between 2001 and 2019.
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Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet. As of May 1st. 2020.
Ms. Amoroso:
And we take it a step further. It may be that, very near term, a lot of optimism has been priced in, but the longer term, we think not enough optimism has been priced in. This is because while industry forecasts are ambitious, company and analyst estimates tend to be quite conservative. Let me give you a few examples of what we think is yet to be priced in but could lead to lasting outperformance of tech, biotech and clean energy.
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Digital Transformation.
Ms. Amoroso:
We know that in technology, growth and data is the most prominent trend in technologies. Like cloud computing, ultra-fast 5G and artificial intelligence are helping us capture this trend. But we’re still so early in the very early stages of these technologies. For example, 5G smartphone adoption may reach only 15% by the end of 2020. The enterprise adoption of the cloud is running at only 20%, although this is being significantly and rapidly accelerated due to COVID. And for artificial intelligence, only 20% of enterprises have adopted AI at scale.
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A bar graph labeled "We are still in early stages of adoption of new technologies" shows the adoption rates for 5G, cloud, and AI.
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Small print text: Source: "Global Handset Model," J.P. Morgan North America Research. March 2020. "Cloud Adoption to accelerate IT modernization." McKinsey 2018. "Talent and workforce effects in the age of AI." Deloitte. March 2020.
Ms. Amoroso:
So the opportunity to scale up these technologies is immense. And by the way, not to mention new technologies like augmented reality, remote surgery or autonomous driving that the former technologies will help enable. In fact, enterprise adoption of 5G is a potential $700 billion opportunity for service providers, yet to be captured. And artificial intelligence is a $60 trillion opportunity to add economic value by 2030, also yet to be captured.
In healthcare, innovation is certainly not new. But the speed of it is. In 2003, it took 13 years to complete the first reference sequence of the full human genome. Today, we can sequence a genome in less than 24 hours. The other thing that’s really interesting in healthcare is that there’s this confluence of breakthroughs in genetics and artificial intelligence that is incredibly powerful, and it is further accelerating basic innovation.
So is all of that captured evaluations? We don’t think so. Given the current level of R&D, we can see $255 billion in additional industry revenues by 2024. If that pans out and half of that accrues to biotech, the revenues of the NASDAQ Biotech Index will almost double from today’s levels.
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A bar chart appears, labeled "Sales should rebound, orphan drug market to almost double." It shows values, in 2018, with Prescription, excluding generics and orphan, at about 600 billion US Dollars; Orphan, at about 700 billion US Dollars; and Generics, at about 800 billion US Dollars. (The chart shows that this represents a slight increase in a steady market, since 2010.)
The chart also forecasts sharp growth. It projects, by 2024: Prescription, excluding generics and orphan, to be nearly 800 billion US Dollars; Orphan, to be about 1000 billion US Dollars; and Generics, to be about 1100 billion US Dollars.
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Compound Annual Growth Rate, 2019 to 2024: 6.9%.
Source: "World preview 2019, Outlook to 2024," EvaluatePharma Vision. May 2019.
Ms. Amoroso:
This is not yet enterprised today, but will be in the future as drug approvals go from concepts and probabilities to certainties and realities. This robust pipeline of new molecules is fueling 27% average growth rate through 2022, and this is why we think biotech has a chance to break out of this five-year trading range and break out to the outside.
Sustainability will be one of the defining movements of this decade. How can we make the most efficient use of our natural resources while minimizing the damage to the environment and ensuring everybody has access to basics, like food, water, and clean air? That’s what sustainability is about, and more. We’ll consider that only 26% of our global energy mix today is from renewables. Only 9% of our companies and governments are designed for a circular economy.
The opportunity to increase this percentage is immense. Now this has been well telegraphed, but looking back at prior forecasts, we find that time and time again, the actual adoption, the actual increase in renewables generation outpaced those forecasts. And that was when the cost of wind and solar was higher than it is today. We’ve seen that fall significantly. And now it is becoming not only a responsible decision for companies to adopt to move to circular concepts and clean energy concepts, but it is also increasingly becoming an economic decision.
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A line chart appears, labeled "Cost of wind, solar, natural gas, and coal." It shows:
Wind's levelized cost of energy at 135 in 2009 and at about 42 in 2018;
Wind's dollar per megawatt hour at about 375 in 2009 and at about 5 in 2018;
Solar's levelized cost of energy at 130 in 2009 and at about 42 in 2018;
Solar's dollar per megawatt hour at about 375 in 2009 and at about 40 in 2018;
Natural gas's levelized cost of energy at about 84 in 2009 and at about 60 in 2018;
Natural gas's dollar per megawatt hour at about 150 in 2009 and at about 75 in 2018;
Coal's levelized cost of energy at 110 in 2009 and at about 105 in 2018;
Coal's dollar per megawatt hour at about 260 in 2009 and at about 250 in 2018.
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Source: Lazard, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. LCOE is "levelized" cost of energy, the net present value of the unit cost of electricity over the lifetime of a generating asset.
It is often taken as a proxy for the average price that the generating asset must receive in a market to break even over its lifetime. Data is based on availability as of November 30th, 2019.
Ms. Amoroso:
So we think it is likely that the speed of adoption of sustainability practices like clean energy will surprise to the outside, ultimately helping drive those stocks’ outperformance. Thank you so much for your interest in this topic. This is just a start. We will continue to update on upcoming developments and new technologies like augmented reality, remote surgery, precision health, circular economy, food tech, and much, much more. So we look forward to working with you in finding investment opportunities within each one of these megatrends.
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Aspettative elevate
Due mega-trend globali – trasformazione digitale e innovazione sanitaria – hanno prodotto di recente alcuni vincitori:
- Il settore tecnologico ha reso quest'anno oltre il 6%
- I titoli biotecnologici hanno segnato un rialzo di quasi il 10%
- Le aziende connesse all'e-commerce hanno guadagnato oltre il 14%
Aspettative contenute
Molti settori e classi di attivo continuano a suggerire una crescita economica debole in futuro, anche a seguito dell'ultimo rialzo:
- Da inizio anno le small cap hanno sottoperformato le large cap del 10%
- Più di 176 titoli dell'S&P 500 hanno perso oltre il 20% da inizio anno
- Le azioni bancarie negli Stati Uniti hanno ceduto quasi il 30% rispetto ai massimi delle ultime 52 settimane.
- Le azioni dei mercati emergenti sono ancora di oltre il 25% al di sotto dei massimi di gennaio 2018
- I rendimenti dei Treasury USA decennali sono ancora inferiori all'1%, segno che gli investitori obbligazionari si aspettano in futuro tassi contenuti di crescita e inflazione
- Gli spread delle obbligazioni ad alto rendimento continuano a indicare un ciclo di default simile a quello della crisi finanziaria globale del 2007-2008
- L'oro, bene rifugio per eccellenza, è risalito insieme al dollaro statunitense e allo yen giapponese
- I metalli industriali e il greggio sono scesi su livelli coerenti con il crollo del super-ciclo delle materie prime del 2015 e 2016
Uno sguardo sul mondo
Ecco cosa vedono i nostri team in…
Investire con cognizione di causa
Cosa dovrebbero fare gli investitori?
Secondo le nostre prospettive di metà anno, la ripresa a un certo punto arriverà, e potrebbe persino essere già iniziata. La contrazione è stata profonda e dolorosa, e avrà conseguenze durature.
Vi è tuttavia motivo di credere che questa ripresa economica potrebbe giungere più rapidamente di quella successiva alla crisi finanziaria globale. È probabile inoltre che le due saranno abbastanza simili sotto molti aspetti: inflazione contenuta e stabile, tassi d'interesse bassi e utili in crescita. Prevediamo inoltre l'accelerazione di talune tendenze, quali tensioni geopolitiche, digitalizzazione, innovazione nella sanità e aumento del divario a livello patrimoniale e reddituale. Ciò non toglie che il percorso verso la ripresa sia fosco. I modelli di business sono stati forzatamente scardinati. Vi sono dubbi sulla sostenibilità a lungo termine del settore immobiliare corporate. In questo contesto, le valutazioni sembrano equilibrate. Per questo motivo, manteniamo un modesto sottopeso sulle azioni rispetto al nostro benchmark strategico. Inoltre, restiamo convinti che le obbligazioni core possano fungere da importante contrappeso rispetto ad altre classi di attivo più rischiose.
Ricostituzione del posizionamento pro-ciclico
L'impatto economico del coronavirus ha brutalmente ricordato a tutti gli investitori che bisogna mettere in conto anche l'imprevisto. Noi ricorriamo alla diversificazione per riuscire ad affrontare le tempeste inattese. Da inizio anno le azioni potranno aver perso il 14%, ma le obbligazioni hanno guadagnato il 5%.
Prestiamo attenzione alla gestione della volatilità e alla protezione dai ribassi. Al contempo, abbiamo adottato un approccio deliberato e consapevole per conferire nuovamente ai portafogli un orientamento "pro-ciclico" (con sovrappesi sulle azioni e sulle classi di attivo più rischiose). Il primo passo è consistito nell'investire in obbligazioni ad alto rendimento, che a nostro parere evidenziano un profilo di rischio/rendimento interessante rispetto alle azioni, dato che gli spread suggeriscono tuttora un significativo ciclo di default. Inoltre, in questo frangente abbiamo incrementato gli investimenti in attivi esposti all'economia fisica, nel caso in cui la ripresa riservasse sorprese positive.
Expect the unexpected: Setting a plan for your wealth in times of volatility
Jamie Lavin, Head of Advice
BRG – JPMPB – Mid-Year Outlook: Jamie – Transcript
Jamie:
My name is Jamie Lavin Buzzard, and I'm Head of Advice at J.P. Morgan for the U.S. Private Bank. The first half of 2020 was, in a word, unexpected. Financial markets around the world sold off sharply. However, the S&P 500 since reaching those lows in the next 50 trading days, rallied over 40%. If you're a diversified investor, meaning you own both stocks and bonds on a one-year trailing basis, you're likely close to flat in your portfolio.
But we know the ride has not felt as uneventful. As investors, we also know to expect the unexpected, and this year has proven that now more than ever. As risk markets sold off, we've reduced our equity exposure, and we're happy with how fixed income protected to the downside.
Now, we are thoughtfully and deliberately adding back to risk assets. Perhaps more important than tactical shifts, especially during turbulent times, is to focus on what you can control.
The goals you set forth for your family and the intention for your wealth help to inform how your assets are invested in a way that offer a higher probability of success in reaching those goals. Understanding the path and the risk that you need to take to get there is one of the most effective ways in times of volatility. We also recommend revisiting your estate plan to ensure your intentions are those of what you expect.
Finally, if your goal is to gift to family members or provide an inter-family loan, interest rates are back to all-time lows, and now could be an optimal time to implement those strategies. Having a plan, revisiting and revising when necessary, and then sticking to that plan is the single most important piece of advice we can give at J.P. Morgan.
END
BRG – JPMPB – Mid-Year Outlook: Jamie –
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Investment Insights - Expect the unexpected: Setting a plan for your wealth in times of volatility.
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Jamie Lavin Buzzard, Head of Advice, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Jamie:
My name is Jamie Lavin Buzzard, and I'm Head of Advice at J.P. Morgan for the U.S. Private Bank. The first half of 2020 was, in a word, unexpected. Financial markets around the world sold off sharply. However, the S&P 500 since reaching those lows in the next 50 trading days, rallied over 40%. If you're a diversified investor, meaning you own both stocks and bonds on a one-year trailing basis, you're likely close to flat in your portfolio.
But we know the ride has not felt as uneventful. As investors, we also know to expect the unexpected, and this year has proven that now more than ever.
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As investors, we know to expect the unexpected.
Jamie:
As risk markets sold off, we've reduced our equity exposure, and we're happy with how fixed income protected to the downside.
Now, we are thoughtfully and deliberately adding back to risk assets. Perhaps more important than tactical shifts, especially during turbulent times, is to focus on what you can control.
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Focus on what you can control.
Jamie:
The goals you set forth for your family and the intention for your wealth help to inform how your assets are invested in a way that offer a higher probability of success in reaching those goals. Understanding the path and the risk that you need to take to get there is one of the most effective ways in times of volatility. We also recommend revisiting your estate plan to ensure your intentions are those of what you expect.
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Tip: Revisiting your estate plan.
Jamie:
Finally, if your goal is to gift to family members or provide an inter-family loan, interest rates are back to all-time lows, and now could be an optimal time to implement those strategies. Having a plan, revisiting and revising when necessary, and then sticking to that plan is the single most important piece of advice we can give at J.P. Morgan.
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Portafoglio personale e pianificazione
In fin dei conti gli investitori devono concentrarsi su ciò che possono controllare, ovvero formulare intenzioni specifiche riguardo ai loro investimenti, che si tratti di risparmiare per la pensione o per una nuova casa, oppure di accrescere il patrimonio da trasmettere alle generazioni future.
Un segreto per raggiungere i propri obiettivi finanziari risiede in una pianificazione adeguata e in una costruzione precisa del portafoglio. Il nostro obiettivo è costruire insieme portafogli che offrano una maggiore probabilità di successo, anche in vista di un nuovo cigno nero in grado di causare un'altra correzione del 30% sui mercati azionari.
Guardare al di fuori dei propri investimenti
La volatilità di mercato e i tassi contenuti offrono anche l'opportunità di apportare cambiamenti tattici e strategici al proprio assetto patrimoniale complessivo per procedere più speditamente verso i propri obiettivi. Questo è un ottimo momento per rivedere i propri finanziamenti e la propria liquidità, per valutare se presentano caratteristiche ottimali alla luce dell'attuale contesto, nonché per rivedere il proprio piano successorio, non solo per accertarsi che tutta la documentazione necessaria sia in ordine, ma anche per vedere se si possono effettuare donazioni o cambiamenti per accelerare il proprio piano di elargizioni (a discendenti e persone care o a enti di beneficienza se il portafoglio ha recuperato terreno).
Per saperne di più sulla nostra visione della strada da percorrere, compresi i potenziali rischi e benefici, scarica qui il nostro rapporto completo:
Download Full Report
