Estrategia de inversión
1 minuto de lectura
¿Está usted interesado en el panorama de inversión para 2025? ¡El video de perspectivas globales lo desglosa!
La economía de EE. UU. está preparada para un crecimiento sólido, impulsando las ganancias de las empresas y los rendimientos de capital. Pero no se detenga ahí: ¡las oportunidades globales abundan! Descubra cómo la naturaleza cambiante de la seguridad nacional, la IA, la automatización y el cambio en las cadenas de suministro crean potencial de inversión en todo el mundo.
Aprenda por qué las perspectivas de Europa favorecen los bonos a más largo plazo y explore mercados emergentes como India y México. Cada una de las perspectivas regionales nos lleva de nuevo a la resiliencia de la cartera, un tema central en nuestras Perspectivas 2025.
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Gran parte de nuestras Perspectivas 2025 se centra en la economía de EE. UU. y en las perspectivas para los activos de riesgo estadounidenses. Creemos que la economía de EE. UU. es fundamentalmente fuerte, creciendo actualmente entre un 2% y un 2.5%, y con una muy buena probabilidad de que continuemos viendo un crecimiento del 2% al 2.5% durante los primeros seis meses, quizás durante todo 2025. Por lo tanto, esperamos que las empresas estadounidenses experimenten un mayor crecimiento de ganancias y saludables rendimientos de capital, a pesar de sus valoraciones iniciales más elevadas.
Mientras tanto, fuera de EE. UU., la incertidumbre comercial probablemente persista, afectando la confianza corporativa y el sentimiento de los inversores. ¿Significa esto que los inversores deberían simplemente ignorar invertir en el resto del mundo? Creemos que no.
En cuanto a las acciones, aunque EE. UU. es nuestro mercado preferido, nos gusta invertir globalmente. Muchos de los temas que destacamos en nuestras Perspectivas 2025 son temas globales: la naturaleza cambiante de la seguridad nacional, la creciente adopción de la IA, la automatización y la robótica, las necesidades energéticas requeridas para apoyar la transformación de la IA y, por supuesto, el cambio en las cadenas de suministro. Al adoptar un enfoque de selección de acciones, creemos que los inversores no están apostando por la economía europea o japonesa, sino simplemente buscando un grupo de las mejores empresas globales que puedan aprovechar estos temas de crecimiento superior al PIB.
En renta fija, la perspectiva de crecimiento más débil que vemos para Europa significa que es probable que haya más recortes por parte del BCE, y por lo tanto, nuestra convicción para mantener una duración más larga en Europa es más fuerte que en EE. UU. Para obtener más información, lea nuestras perspectivas regionales dentro de nuestras Perspectivas 2025. Estos tres artículos breves destacan cómo encontrar oportunidades en mercados emergentes, un área donde el crecimiento económico no siempre se traduce en rendimientos de inversión.
Sugerimos un marco que busque sectores privados prósperos con mínima interferencia gubernamental, empresas que valoren a los accionistas y el crecimiento de ganancias y canales de exportación en expansión. Esto nos lleva a encontrar oportunidades en India, Indonesia, Taiwán y México, empresas europeas que suministran insumos críticos a la cadena de valor de la IA, sectores de infraestructura, aeroespacial y defensa. Invertir en campeones nacionales europeos podría ser especialmente útil para clientes que se encuentran con posiciones desproporcionadas en acciones tecnológicas de EE. UU. y podrían beneficiarse de la diversificación global y un enfoque temático.
Y en América Latina, presentamos un estudio de caso cauteloso sobre el activismo fiscal o el aumento de la inversión gubernamental. El progreso inicial en el control de la inflación fue finalmente socavado por un gasto gubernamental imprudente. Este estudio de caso es particularmente relevante ahora, con inversores preocupados por regiones donde la expansión fiscal podría avivar la inflación.
Cada una de las perspectivas regionales nos lleva de nuevo a la resiliencia de la cartera, un tema central en nuestras Perspectivas 2025. Esto significa un mayor enfoque en la diversificación, ingresos, rendimientos no correlacionados y estrategias que proporcionen protección a la baja sin renunciar a los rendimientos potenciales. Esperamos que disfrute explorando estas ideas y fortaleciendo su estrategia de inversión para 2025 y más allá.
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The Shanghai skyline, photo of a woman in a black shirt. Text: JP Morgan, Global Perspectives, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. GRACE PETERS, Global Head of Investment Strategy,
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Much of our 2025 outlook focuses on the US economy and the outlook for US risk assets. We believe the US economy is fundamentally strong, growing at 2% to 2.5% now, and with a very good chance that we continue to see 2% to 2.5% growth through the first six months, maybe the whole of 2025. As such, we expect US companies to see stronger earnings growth and healthy equity returns despite their richer starting valuations.
Meanwhile, outside of the US, trade uncertainty is likely to linger, weighing on corporate confidence and investor sentiment. So does that outlook mean investors should simply ignore investing in the rest of the world? We think not. In equities, whilst the US is our preferred market, we like to invest globally. Many of the themes we highlight in our 2025 outlook are global themes, the changing nature of national security, rising AI adoption, automation and robotics, the power needs required to support the AI transformation, and of course, shifting supply chains.
In adopting a stock picking approach, we believe investors are not betting on the European or Japanese economy, but simply seeking out a group of the best global companies that can tap into these GDP plus themes.
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European fixed-income assets
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In fixed income, the weaker growth outlook that we see for Europe means more cuts from the ECB are likely, and thus our conviction for holding longer duration in Europe is stronger than in the US.
To learn more, read our regional perspectives within the 2025 outlook. These three bite sized articles highlight how to find opportunities in emerging markets, an area where economic growth doesn't always equate to investment returns. We suggest a framework that seeks out thriving private sectors with minimal government interference, companies that value shareholders and earnings growth, and growing export channels. This leads us to find opportunity in India, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Mexico.
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AI-driven productivity
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European companies that supply critical inputs to the AI value chain, infrastructure, aerospace, and defense sectors. Investing in European national champions could be especially useful for clients who find themselves with outsized positions in US tech stocks and could benefit from global diversification and a thematic approach.
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Easing monetary policy.
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And in Latin America, we present a cautionary case study into fiscal activism or increased government investment. Early progress on controlling inflation was ultimately undermined by unwise government spending. This case study is particularly apt now, with investors concerned about regions where fiscal expansion could stoke inflation.
Each of the regional perspectives leads us back to portfolio resilience, a central theme in our 2025 outlook. This means a greater focus on diversification, income, uncorrelated returns, and strategies that provide downside protection without forgoing potential returns. We hope you enjoy exploring these insights and strengthening your investment strategy for 2025 and beyond.
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18 nov. 2024
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1 minuto de lectura
Las perspectivas y las rentabilidades pasadas no constituyen ninguna garantía de rentabilidades futuras. No es posible invertir directamente en un índice. Nos remitimos al apartado “Definiciones de índices y términos”, donde podrá obtener información importante. Todas las compañías mencionadas se muestran únicamente a efectos ilustrativos, y no se pretende que ello constituya una recomendación o apoyo por parte de J.P. Morgan en este contexto.
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Para obtener más información sobre el negocio de inversión de J.P. Morgan, incluidos productos, servicios y cuentas, así como nuestra relación con usted, consulte nuestro Formulario CRS de J.P. Morgan Securities LLC y nuestra Guía de servicios de inversión y productos de intermediación.
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