Investment Strategy

With U.S. midterm elections unclear, the economy retakes the stage

Nov 10, 2022

Stocks could bounce with an election resolution, but the focus remains on inflation and the economy.

Our Top Market Takeaways for November 10, 2022.

Market update

Call it a ripple, not a wave

 

From midterms, to inflation, to crypto turmoil, it’s been a packed week.

When it comes to midterms, the final votes may take days to count, but so far elections look set to result in a divided government. Heading into the election, Democrats narrowly held a majority in both chambers of Congress. With the current tally, a red ripple seems likely to yield the House to Republicans by a slim margin, while it looks like Democrats will maintain the Senate as final results come down to battleground states of Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. Georgia is already headed for another runoff on December 6 (with the final outcome not expected for weeks), but the latter two states seem to be leaning in Democrats’ favor.

Historically, regardless of election outcome, stocks have gone up in the aftermath of midterms. Since World War II, the S&P 500 has been higher 100% of the time a year after the midterms, with the average return around 13%.

That said, while a short-term bounce could come as election uncertainty dissipates and political gridlock suggests little action around government spending, corporate taxation, and regulatory policy, stocks will need more fundamental oomph to power a sustainable rally.

Right now, the economy outweighs politics—for voters, corporates, and markets alike. The cost of living squeeze continues to pinch pocketbooks, and only 5% of S&P 500 companies this earnings season have mentioned the word “election.” The onus of any credible bull case thus relies on inflation coming down and the Fed easing up on its tightening campaign.

With that said, today’s October CPI report is in sharp focus.

 

Spotlight

The dawn of a new day?
 

At long last, we got a “softer” inflation print, and stocks so far are cheering. In October, the pace of headline price increases held at a 0.4% month-over-month pace (below the expected 0.6%) and core prices (ex-food & energy) increased just 0.3% month-over-month (vs. expectations of 0.5%). Shelter costs (think: the rent you pay for your home) accounted for the bulk of this past month’s increase, while used vehicles, medical care services, and apparel decelerated.

The top chart compares the month-over-month U.S. core CPI to U.S. headline CPI reading as well as the Fed’s target rate. Fed’s target rate: 0.18% month-over-month. Headline CPI: Starts at 0.4% in January of 2018, moved to 0.1% in March of 2018, then went to 0.2% in October of 2018 and then further moved to -0.1% in November of 2018. It then shot up to 0.4% in March of 2019 before flattening to around 0.3% in October of 2019, then dropping to -0.8% in April of 2020. Headline CPI then moved back into positive territory to 0.5% in June of 2020, moved to around 0.6% in March of 2021, then 0.9% in October of 2021. It spiked to 0.12% in March of 2022, dropped off to 0.03% in April of 2022 before spiking again to 1.3%. It then fell to 0% in July of 2022 before creeping back to 0.4% in September 2022. In October 2022 it remained relatively flat at 0.4%. Core CPI: Starts at 0.3% in January of 2018 and then remains relatively steady throughout 2018 and 2019 at 0.3%. From January of 2020 it fell sharply to -0.1% in May of 2020. It then bounced to 0.6% in July of 2020, before dipping to 0% in January of 2021. It spiked to 0.9% in April of 2021, then fell to 0.2% in August of 2021 before moving up again to 0.6% in January of 2022. By March of 2022, it fell again to 0.3%. It then moved back up to 0.7% in June of 2022, then fell to 0.6% in September of 2022. In October of 2022 it moved to 0.3%. The bottom chart shows sector contribution to October U.S. core CPI in basis points (bps). Core rose 27bps in October. This was a result of: • OER (Owners’ Equivalent Rent) contributing 19bps • Other services 6.7bps • Rent 6.5bps • Lodging away from home 5.8bps • Motor Vehicle Insurance 5.4bps • New vehicles 1.9bps • Other goods 1.9bps • Airlines -0.9bps • Apparel -2.2bps • Medical Care Services -5.3bps • Used vehicles -11.8bps

To be sure, October’s print comes as welcome news, but the Fed will continue its hiking campaign to tame inflation—price increases are just too high and too broad. But, as inflation starts to decelerate—especially around ongoing pressure points like wages and services (like shelter prices)—it could demark we are nearer to the end of this era of policy tightening. We think it’s likely the Fed starts to slow down the magnitude of its hikes from here—from 75bps last month to 50bps in December, and 25bps toward the start of next year.

Examining the monthly trend in inflation across those sticky components could provide clues for the direction of future travel. We anchor on core PCE, rather than CPI, which is the measure the Fed targets:

Shelter prices have been surging for months, but it’s important to keep in mind that this is a lagging indicator since it captures the average rents people are already paying as opposed to rents on new leases. It could take a few more months for the decline we’re seeing in leading rent indicators (like Apartment List’s Rent Index) to start showing up in the official print, but the Fed seems well aware of this dynamic. Adjusting current core PCE with this in mind suggests that overall trend core inflation is running just below 4%—still well above the Fed’s 2% mandate, but better than the current 5% pace. 

This chart illustrates CPI Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) vs. market rents per the Apartment List Rent Index. CPI Owner’s Equivalent Rent: Started at 3.4% in February of 2018 and remained relatively flat through 2018. It moved up a bit to 3.65% in June of 2019, then back down to 3% in December of 2019 before falling further to 1.52% in January of 2021. It jumped to 5.1% in December of 2021 and continued to move up to 5.65% in May of 2022. It hit 8.45% in September of 2022, and 8.76% in October of 2022. Apartment List Index: Started at 2.39% in January of 2018 and moved to 5.32% in June of 2018, before falling to 1.36% in November of 2018. In March of 2020 it rose to 4.4% before falling to -9.59% by July of 2020. It inflected higher and hit 28% in September 2021, before falling back to 6.87% in March of 2022. It moved up to 9.25% in July of 2022, then fell to 0.05% in September 2022 and 0.02% in October 2022.
On wages, average hourly earnings and the employment cost index are still running around a high 4.5­–5%, but have slowed from around a 6% pace. To be sure, the pace is still too hot, but it’s not consistent with an even more problematic wage-price spiral either. Looking forward, the Fed is counting on higher rates to cool the labor market. Cracks are already starting to show: Meta announced yesterday that it’s cutting some 11,000 workers—one of the largest layoff announcements we’ve heard yet. If wage inflation continues to cool toward 3.5%, it would be back in line with the Fed’s 2% core inflation mandate.
This chart shows the U.S. Employment Cost Index: Private Industry Workers’' Wages & Salaries, annual rate relative to the Fed’s target of 3.5% from 2010 to 2022. The ECI started at 1.5% and reached 30% in September 2014, bounced down to 0.7% in June 2015, rose back to 3.6% in September 2019, dipped to 1.4% in June 2020 then started a more rapid ascent. It reached a series high of 6.5% in June 2022 then dipped to 4.8% in September.

Investment implications

Striking a balance
 

Despite the political swirl, the economy is front and center. The fight against inflation is still far from over, and the more the Fed hikes, the greater the consequences for growth. That said, we do think we’re closer to the end of the battle than the beginning.

In the meantime, we’re focused on investments that can create a greater certainty of outcomes. We see some of the most compelling opportunities in fixed income. Broadly, investment grade bonds are yielding over 6% for the first time in over a decade, providing a low-risk way to achieve returns more akin to long-term equity expectations. While bond yields could still spike from here, the market already embeds an expectation that the Fed raises policy rates above 5%—conditions we think will slow growth to the point of recession and force inflation to fall.

This graph shows a comparison between current fixed income yields in December 31, 2021 and November 9, 2022. • 10Y UST: December 31, 2021 1.5%; November 9, 2022: 4.1% • 3M US T-Bill: 0%; 4.2% • Euro IG: 0.5%; 4.3% • US IG: 2.8%; 6.1% • US Munis (TEY): 1.9%; 7.0% • Euro HY: 3.9%; 8.5% • US Preferreds: 3.7%; 8.7% • US HY: 4.7%; 9.4%
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All market and economic data as of November 2022 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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