Investment Strategy

How can investors navigate the market’s murky waters?

Jul 08, 2022

After a week of more fireworks, proper portfolio maintenance may help improve outcomes.

Our Top Market Takeaways for July 08, 2022

Markets in a minute

Residual fireworks

We have accepted the fact that there won’t be many quiet weeks in markets this year.

Equity markets tumbled on Tuesday morning (newswires blamed growing recession fears), but most stock markets climbed for the rest of the week and ended up gaining almost 2.0% heading into Friday.

Bond yields ended a touch higher, with yields across maturities out to 10 years trading right around 3%, but not before they briefly fell all the way to 2.75% on Wednesday.

In foreign exchange, the euro is approaching parity with the U.S. dollar for the first time since the early 2000s. Expect to see a lot more Paris and Positano on your Instagram feeds this summer.

The commodity sell-off continued, although a Thursday bounce flattered the performance of the complex. Nonetheless, retail gasoline prices in the United States are set to fall back toward $4.50 per gallon from a peak above $5 in early June.   

Meanwhile, investors parsed reports that increased stimulus may be coming from policymakers in Beijing, and watched the end of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s memorable tenure as the head of the U.K. government.

On Friday morning, the United States awoke to sad news from Japan. Shinzo Abe, who served as Prime Minister for the country for most of the 2010s, was assassinated while giving a campaign speech. Investors will remember him for being a champion of the unprecedented economic policy dubbed “Abenomics.”

As much as we’d appreciate a breather, volatility seems set to stay. The VIX, an index of equity market volatility, suggests a move of around 1.5% higher or lower every day for the S&P 500 for the next month. Fixed income implied market volatility is higher now than at any point in the last 10 years. Foreign exchange volatility was only higher during the Chinese currency devaluation episode in late 2015/early 2016 and the initial COVID-19 crisis.

This chart shows the implied bond volatility (shown using the MOVE Index) and implied foreign exchange volatility (shown using the J.P. Morgan Global FX Volatility Index) from 2008 to 2022. The MOVE began at 214 and rose to 265 by October 2008. It then fell to 74 in March 2010 and 49 in May 2013. It rose to 114 by September 2013, then settled back down. By March 2020, it skyrocketed back to 164 before falling to a series low of 37 in September. It then rose to 156 as of July 2022. Meanwhile, FX volatility began at 10 and rose to 27 by October 2008. It then fell to 5 by July 2014 and rose again to 12 by June 2016. It fell to a low of 5 in January 2020 and rose a few months later. It dipped, then rose finally to 12 by July 2022.

We don’t think markets will calm down until central banks feel satisfied that they have bent inflation back to a more tolerable rate. Policy rates are the foundation for the global financial system. When investors have little clarity on where they will be in the future, it introduces tremendous uncertainty for the proper price of assets now.

The good news is that we think most of the hard work in controlling inflation has already been done. The bad news is that this also means recession risks are elevated. Now investors will just have to wait and see if central bankers see enough evidence of falling inflation in the data so that they can feel confident enough to take their feet off the brakes.

Spotlight

Glimmers of hope

This week was encouraging for those who think the U.S. economy will avoid a near-term recession. While the risks of a material economic downturn are clearly elevated, we did see evidence this week that inflation could deteriorate faster than the labor market.

Financial markets seem to be taking very seriously the Federal Reserve’s message of fighting inflation at all costs. Even after a bounce on Thursday, broad commodities are 16% below recent highs, retail gasoline is down 21%, and copper is down 29%. Industrial metals prices are lower now than they were one year ago.

In equities, the energy sector is 25% below early June highs, copper miner Freeport McMoRan is down 45%, and U.S. Steel is down 55%. In bond markets, five-year inflation breakevens derived from TIPS are close to one-year lows.

The weakness in commodities, housing (new home sales in San Diego are down 35% year-over-year) and durable goods (how about those outdoor furniture sales?) provides evidence that inflation is rolling over in part because of what the Fed has already done and what it is signaling it will do. Of course, it also provides evidence that an intractable growth slowdown is well underway.

However, the labor market seems to be cooling at the margin, but there are very few signs of outright weakness. The Challenger job cuts data for June generated headlines due to the 57% surge in layoff announcements, but the rise from 20,700 announced job cuts in May to 32,500 layoffs in June doesn’t have us all that concerned. In fact, the uptick to 32,500 just gets us closer to the average for expansionary months in the data back to 1994.

This chart shows the Challenger survey announced job cuts per month in the average recession between 1994 and 2022, in the average expansion, post-GFC average, and in June 2022. • Recession average: 150,533 • Expansion average: 58,330 • Post-GFC average: 44,392 • June 2022: 32,517

Initial jobless claims are hovering right around 230,000 per week, which is entirely commensurate with an expanding economy. The non-farm payroll report released this morning showed that the economy added 372,000 jobs last month, which, if anything, is probably still too strong in the Fed’s eyes. In all, these data seem consistent with a labor market that is moving from extremely tight to pretty strong.

While the market has been preoccupied with the durable goods bust, the latest PMI services survey data for the United States also painted a picture of moderating, not plunging, growth. The ISM Services Index for June came in above expectations and very solidly in expansion territory (55.3 versus 54 expected; anything over 50 indicates further growth). Remember, services make up over two-thirds of overall consumption, and real spending there is still growing at a 4.7% year-over-year pace, more than 170 basis points (bps) faster than it was at any point in the post–Global Financial Crisis period. We are in the midst of a growth slowdown, but the exodus from goods is probably making it seem worse than it really is for now.

This chart shows the real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) services and goods segments, in year-over-year percentage change terms from 2016 to 2022. Goods began at 3.5% and remained relatively flat until February 2020 at 4.2%, then plummeted to -10.9%. It rallied rapidly to reach 9.5% by September 2020 and beyond 20% in March 2021. It fell back down to 6.7% in July 2021 and -2.7% in May 2022. Meanwhile, services began at 2.2% and remained flat until February 2020 at 2.2%, then fell sharply to -18.9%. It rallied to -6.6% in October and 19.7% in April 2021. It then fell to 4.7% by May 2022.

This week supported the idea that weakness in commodities could cool headline inflation (which should help temper consumer inflation expectations), that a moderating labor market could reduce the risk of a wage-price spiral, and that continued jobs gains could support future spending, investment and hiring.

Of course, that is if everything goes right. All it will take to tilt the balance toward a much more negative outcome is another energy supply disruption, an unhinged consumer inflation expectations survey, or for labor market weakness to spread in the real estate or financial technology sectors.

Investment takeaways

Portfolio maintenance

While the range of possible outcomes seems wide, we do have confidence that inflation and growth are set to slow, and that volatility will remain elevated. This is why we think investors should be focused on core fixed income, quality equities and strategies that effectively monetize volatility, but we’ve stated this before, so we won’t belabor it again. 

Instead, we want to highlight two clear considerations for investors even though the outlook is murky.

First, tax-loss harvesting can help extract some value from positions that are underwater. Second, cash and short-term asset management are quite important now that yields are higher. Many investors value the liquidity and relative safety that Treasury bills provide, but we believe they are historically expensive relative to what synthetic markets expect from the Fed. Based on liquidity and risk preferences, there could be better options available.

Finally, we could reach a point this year where markets sell off to the extent that we will be more inclined to actively add to risk assets. Preferred equities and small- and mid-cap stocks are two areas we are watching closely.

Please reach out to your J.P. Morgan team to discuss what our latest views may mean for you and your plan.

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Our Top Market Takeaways for July 8, 2022.

All market and economic data as of July 2022 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

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