Investment Strategy

A first half to forget

Jul 01, 2022

There were few places for investors to hide this year. Here’s a recap of what’s happened to far.


Our Top Market Takeaways for July 1, 2022 from the Global Investment Strategy Group

Mid-year recap

A first half to forget

Well, if you bought commodities, energy stocks, pockets of healthcare and consumer staples, Chile, the Czech Republic, Norway, Portugal, Qatar, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia or the United Kingdom at the start of the year, congratulations.

Otherwise, we’ll just go ahead and say it…bear markets stink. If the year ended today, investment grade sovereign and corporate bonds would have posted their worst year in the history of the Bloomberg Aggregate Index.

The S&P 500, meanwhile, is having the worst first half of a year in over 50. If it ended today, there would only be two years in the last 30 that would have been worse for stocks: 2002 (-23.8%) and 2008 (-37.6%).

The good news is that the year doesn’t end today. In fact, the three other years that finished the first half with a 20%+ decline (1932, 1962 and 1970) all posted gains for the second half.  

Heading into the holiday weekend, we offer a visual timeline of the notable events that have driven markets. Happy Fourth!

All 3 charts include markers representing significant events that have occurred between January and July of 2022, which are detailed in the description of the legend that follows this visualization • 1 The S&P 500 makes an all-time high and Apple becomes the first U.S. company to reach $3 trillion market cap • 2 U.S. new COVID-19 cases peak at 1.2 million per day • 3 U.S. CPI posts its highest y/y pace since 1982 • 4 American and Russian diplomats continue attempt but fail to ease fears of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine • 5 Chair Powell announces that every Federal Reserve meeting going forward is “live” for rate hikes • 6 Hawkish policy meetings at the BoE and the ECB send global government bond yields surging higher • 7 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, making the capital of China the first city to ever host both the Summer and Winter Olympics • 8 The Los Angeles Rams defeat the Cincinnati Bengals to win Super Bowl LVI • 9 Russia invades Ukraine • 10 Standard & Poor’s downgrades Russia’s debt from BB+ to CCC- • 11 Crude hits $115 per barrel for the first time since 2014 as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate • 12 Oil prices post their largest weekly gain on record due to fears of a potential energy embargo on Russia • 13 McDonald’s pulls out of Russia • 14 Cristiano Ronaldo becomes the official top goal scorer of all time • 15 The Fed raises interest rates (25 basis points) for the first time since 2018 • 16 The Moscow Stock Exchange partially reopens after a month-long shutdown • 17 Shanghai enters a two-staged lockdown, which closes all non-essential businesses • 18 The 2-year 10-year yield curve inverts for the first time since 2019 • 19 Biden announces the largest release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in history. Crude oil has its largest weekly loss in over 10 years • 20 The Senate approves the appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court, making her the first black woman to serve on SCOTUS • 21 The average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbs above 5% for the first time since 2011 • 22 Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter for $54.20 per share, valuing the company at over $41 billion • 23 U.S. GDP contracts for the first time since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 • 24 The Fed hikes by 50 basis points—the first of this magnitude since 2000 • 25 The monkeypox virus is detected in a person who recently traveled to England from Nigeria • 26 The cryptocurrency market loses $200 billion following stablecoin TerraUSD’s collapse in value. Bitcoin and Ether fall to their lowest value in 16 and 11 months, respectively • 27 The European Commission adopts the REPower EU plan for affordable, secure and sustainable energy for Europe • 28 The S&P 500 marks the longest weekly losing streak since 2001. The index falls into bear market territory in intraday trading for the first time this year • 29 The average gas price per gallon in the United States breaches $5 for the first time on record • 30 After two months of lockdowns, Shanghai finally “reopens” with mobility restrictions lifted for most residents • 31 Queen Elizabeth II’s 70th anniversary on the throne • 32 New York passes a partial two-year cryptocurrency mining ban for cryptocurrency that uses power from fossil fuel plants • 33 The ECB announces an end to its longstanding quantitative easing scheme, and provides further details on its path out of negative interest rates • 34 U.S. headline CPI came in at a roaring 8.6% y/y pace, well above consensus expectations of 8.3% • 35 Biden announces the lifting of COVID-19 testing restrictions for international travel • 36 The 10-year Treasury peaks at 3.5%. The market begins to price in a higher probability of a U.S. recession • 37 The Fed raises its policy interest rate by 75 basis points for the first time since 1994. Meanwhile, the ECB calls an ad hoc meeting to address some cracks emerging in peripheral countries • 38 European benchmark natural gas prices increase by around 30% after Russia’s Gazprom reduces Nord Stream 1’s gas supply to Germany • 39 Market implied expectations for inflation over the next five years fall to their lowest level of the year • 40 SCOTUS overturns Roe v. Wade, reversing the 50-year legal precedent
This table shows the 40 events that occurred between January 2022 and June 2022. •1 The S&P 500 makes an all-time high and Apple becomes the first U.S. company to reach $3 trillion market cap •2 U.S. new COVID-19 cases peak at 1.2 million per day •3 U.S. CPI posts its highest y/y pace since 1982 •4 American and Russian diplomats continue attempt but fail to ease fears of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine •5 Chair Powell announces that every Federal Reserve meeting going forward is "live" for rate hikes •6 Hawkish policy meetings at the BoE and the ECB send global government bond yields surging higher •7 Facebook lost $250 billion, the largest one day drop in market cap in history •8 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, making the capital of China the first city to ever host both the Summer and Winter Olympics •9 The Los Angeles Rams defeat the Cincinnati Bengals to win Super Bowl LVI •10 Russia invades Ukraine •11 Standard & Poor’s downgrades Russia's debt from BB+ to CCC- •12 Oil prices post their largest weekly gain on record due to fears of a potential energy embargo on Russia •13 McDonalds pulls out of Russia •14 Cristiano Ronaldo becomes the official top goal scorer of all time •15 The Federal Reserve raises interest rates (25bps) for the first time since 2018 •16 The Moscow Stock Exchange partially reopens after a month-long shutdown •17 Shanghai enters a two-staged lockdown which closes all non-essential businesses •18 The 2-year 10-year yield curve inverts for the first time since 2019 •19 Biden announces the largest release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in history. Crude oil has its largest weekly loss in over 10 years. •20 The Senate approves the appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court, making her the first black woman to serve on SCOTUS •21 The average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbs above 5% for the first time since 2011 •22 Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter for $54.20 per share, valuing the company at over $41 billion •23 U.S. GDP contracts for the first time since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 •24 The Fed hikes by 50 basis points — the first of this magnitude since 2000 •25 The monkeypox virus is detected in a person who recently travelled to England from Nigeria •26 The cryptocurrency market loses $200 billion following stablecoin TerraUSD's collapse in value. Bitcoin and Ether fall to their lowest value in 16 and 11 months, respectively. •27 The European Commission adopts the REPower EU plan for affordable, secure and sustainable energy for Europe •28 The S&P 500 marks the longest weekly losing streak since 2001. The index falls into bear market territory in intraday trading for the first time this year. •29 The average gas price per gallon in the United States breaches $5 for the first time on record •30 After two months of lockdowns, Shanghai finally “re-opens” with mobility restrictions lifted for most residents •31 Queen Elizabeth II's 70th anniversary on the throne •32 New York passes a partial 2-year cryptocurrency mining ban for cryptocurrency that uses power from fossil fuel plants •33 The ECB announces an end to its long-standing quantitative easing scheme, and provides further details on its path out of negative interest rates •34 U.S. headline CPI came in at a roaring 8.6% y/y pace, well above consensus expectations of 8.3% •35 Biden announces the lifting of COVID-19 testing restrictions for international travel •36 Recession obsession: Recession searches overtake inflation searches for the first time •37 The 10-year Treasury peaks at 3.5%. The market begins to price in a higher probability of a U.S. recession •38 The Federal Reserve raises its policy interest rate by 75 basis points for the first time since 1994. Meanwhile, the ECB calls an “ad hoc" meeting to address some cracks emerging in peripheral countries •39 European benchmark natural gas prices increase by around 30% after Russia's Gazprom reduces Nord Stream 1's gas supply to Germany •40 Market implied expectations for inflation over the next 5 years falls to its lowest level of the year

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All market and economic data as of July 2022 and sourced from Bloomberg and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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