Insights

Where will tariff rates settle? Three scenarios explained

Amid rapid policy changes, we’re refining our views on global economies and markets.

5 thoughts on the market’s tariff tantrum

The market cast a loud “no” vote on tariffs, but opportunities emerged. Here are some key takeaways rising from the turmoil.

Market Thoughts: All better now?

I mentioned in my last note the concept of anchoring as a negotiating tactic. The White House did just that when it kicked off…

Dollar Diversification: Why Now?

Investors have long been heavily weighted to U.S. assets. We think it is time to increase global diversification.

What you need to know about the trade war rollercoaster

Tariff pause? Looming U.S.-China trade war? An economic primer can provide helpful background for your investment decision making.

The 2025 Tariff Shock

Uncover Michael Cembalest’s views on recent tariff news and their potential implications.

High Anxiety: Market Implications of Tariffs

Market pundits like to play the spread between greed and fear. They pick a corner and take turns amping up extreme views. I wan…

5 key strategies to fortify portfolios

Learn how to boost portfolio resilience with five strategies that offer diversification, inflation protection and risk management.

Lessons from “Liberation Day”: A guide to tariffs

What could President Trump’s tariffs mean for the U.S. economy—and investors?

Market Thoughts: What, me worry?

As markets struggle to find their footing, investors are caught in a headline fettered whirlwind. The pace and misdirection of…

Q1 2025 Investment Review: Rotation and Consolidation

Sentiment rules, tariffs loom, and central banks are ready. What does this mean for investors? Get the full story in our latest…

Ways to strengthen a portfolio—especially for…

In uncertain times, building a resilient core is essential

Navigating Washington's risks: Mar-a-Lago accord, tariffs…

Political uncertainty has reached rare heights, with tariffs, munis’ tax status and the value of the dollar the primary risks.

Can Emerging Markets survive Trade War II?

We revisit EM winners from the last trade war, assess the impact of surging Chinese imports into these markets, and identify…

Insights from our CIO: Tell me something good

Powell hit on a theme I’ve been harping on for a while: the disconnect between hard and soft (survey) data.

The bull side, the bear side and the reality

U.S. equity markets approached their first weekly gain in a month. What’s coming next?

Chaos vs Grand Design: Trump 2.0 for investors

Gain insights into 2025's evolving market dynamics and discover strategies that may strengthen your portfolio for the year ahead.

Are you ready to embrace the potential of global equities?

As risks to U.S. market exceptionalism rise, now is the time to explore often-overlooked opportunities in global equities.

Is it a golden era for gold?

Understanding the factors driving the price of gold, and some of the reasons it could be effective in a portfolio construction.

2025 Outlook update: How to parse policy uncertainty

From tariffs to technology, clashing forces are driving global markets.

Tariff implications for investors: Building a resilient…

How long can the economy’s strength last? We examine the risks to our base case.

Tariffs: the reasons, responses and repercussions

Let’s delve into the reasons behind tariffs, take stock of market moves and potential responses from trading partners, and…

How investors should think about geopolitical risk

Even if we are in a more febrile environment, hiding in cash is not a winning strategy.

Tariff delays: Uncovering the most impacted sectors

We examine the impact of tariffs on key sectors and what it means for investors.

The China equity rally: artificial or intelligent?

Is the China Artificial intelligence (AI) opportunity real?

Navigating rate risks: How bonds are better positioned in…

Higher yields make bonds a strategic choice for investors looking to navigate the complexities of rate changes in 2025.

Insights from our CIO: Running to stand still

It’s never a good idea to overreact to headline hustlers. Investor quivers create opportunity. I count on emotional overreactio…

Brave New Europe? Redefining trade, defense, and power

Europe is at a crossroads, and a new path that strengthens defense and embraces innovation is essential.

War and peace: What to know about global security

As world leaders reassess their defense strategies, here’s what investors should know.

Building up

We see a combination of surging demand, increasing private investment, underappreciated earnings and falling interest rates as…

Beyond the Fed: Where to focus now

With the Federal Reserve likely on pause, here’s where investors can put their focus.

Why Japan remains one of our top calls

Japan currently stands out as our favorite market given its relative macro stability, safety amid global trade uncertainty.

Proposals versus policy: How to deal with uncertainty

Here are some strategies to consider for managing your portfolio in light of recent news about tariffs and geopolitical…

Exploring new opportunities in the 2025 Alternatives…

Powered by the knowledge and experience of our global team, we are pleased to share with you a carefully curated set of private…

Is the DeepSeek drama a gamechanger for the AI trade?

What does the China-based startup’s breakthrough mean for the artificial intelligence industry?

The first days of the Trump presidency: 3 things we learned

From executive orders to tariffs, here’s what we know about the President’s first few days.

Why have 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased since the…

We break down what’s causing the atypical move in 10-year yields and what to do about it.

Alternative Investments in 2025: Our top five themes to…

Normalizing rates and new growth drivers appear poised to transform private markets, creating potential opportunities

Finding investments where disruption meets transformation

Here’s a look at how markets are solving problems—and revealing potential opportunities

Finding investments where disruption meets transformation

Here’s a look at how markets are solving problems—and revealing potential opportunities

Navigating the New Year: 3 resolutions for investors

Here’s what to keep in mind when refining your portfolio in 2025.

Debunking 3 common misconceptions about passive investing

Explore the myths behind passive investing and consider how personalized portfolio management could better serve your complex…

2024’s unanswered questions: 3 things we want to know

We’re still seeking answers about tariffs, China’s stimulus and more.

The Year of Living Dangerously

I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations,…

5 things on the horizon for 2025

From AI infrastructure to the labor market, here’s what interests us about the year ahead

Debunking the top five sustainable investing myths

Sustainable investing may help you achieve your financial goals while incorporating personal values. Despite its popularity,…

Debunking the top five sustainable investing myths

Sustainable investing may help you achieve your financial goals while incorporating personal values. Despite its popularity,…

3 things we (and the markets) are grateful for this season

We’re ending the year on a note of optimism. Here’s why.

China Outlook: Can China make it in 2025?

Let's explore the various conflicting pressures, their implications for China's economic resilience, and the opportunities they…

Past, present, future: Here’s where we stand

We review where the markets have been and share key questions for 2025, following the launch of our 2025 Outlook.

Navigating a new economic era: 2025 Long-Term Capital…

Now is a good time to revisit your wealth plan and focus on your portfolio’s resilience over the next 10-15 years.

U.S. election recap: What could GOP policies mean for…

With a Republican victory confirmed, we discuss what might be coming over the next term.

Retest your investments to reflect the new return outlook

The backdrop for investing has changed notably in the last few years, creating new opportunities across asset classes.

"Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story

A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story.

Investing in the themes of the future

Why we think security and infrastructure have transformative potential and could play a role in your long-term growth strategy

The final stretch: Your top 3 U.S. election questions…

From tax policy to government debt, we share our thoughts on key issues facing investors.

Japan: a tale of two elections

In this week’s Asia Strategy Focus, we assess how the new administration and the upcoming U.S. elections could impact Japan’s…

Introducing the 29th edition of Long-Term Capital Market…

We step back from the “short-termism” of modern finance to review the bigger picture.

How to use your portfolio to amplify your charitable impact

Learn how your investments can better align with your philanthropic visions, without compromise.

How to use your portfolio to amplify your charitable impact

Learn how your investments can better align with your philanthropic visions, without compromise.

What’s on the horizon for China?

In this week’s Asia Strategy Focus we explore some of the recent developments by responding to five key questions.

The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade

For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.

A Conversation with our CIO: Market and portfolio insights

Gauging our response to the Fed’s surprise moves, investigating the election’s potential impact, evaluating China’s stock marke…

Should you take the plunge? Discover the benefits and…

Taking a gradual approach to adding long-term equity exposure—known as phasing in, or dollar-cost averaging—can help reduce…

Fourth-quarter forecast: 3 things that could affect markets

We explore the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions, China’s policy stimulus and U.S. elections.

The Agony & The Ecstasy

The risks and rewards of a concentrated stock position.

Securing the future: How to invest for growth in a fragil…

As the world faces escalating and evolving risks, investing in security is as important as ever. Discover how aligning your…

Is this time different in China?

Let's discuss China’s latest policies, the macro and market outlook, and importantly, the opportunities and risks for investors.

Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election

The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years.

Opportunities in energy, from fossil fuels to green bonds

Our guide on how to consider investing in the volatile energy space today

Three keys to better thematic investing

We see thematic investing as an essential component clients can incorporate into their long-term investment strategy.

Rate cut breakdown: What you need to know now

We examine the Fed’s historic move and what it could mean for your portfolio.

Why now could be the time to transition from cash to bonds

With the Fed about to cut rates, today’s cash yields look fleeting. Remember: Bonds have historically outperformed cash during…

Why it might be a new day for growth equity

While private market growth equity valuations have seen a steep decline since the 2021 peak, we see signs that new opportunitie…

Insights from our CIO: It ain’t over till it’s over

As the battle between fear and greed intensifies, investors must navigate market volatility and political uncertainties with a…

How did the markets respond to the U.S. presidential debate?

We examine shifts in U.S. election odds and financial markets after the candidates’ first meeting.

3 moments that defined August

As we set course for the upcoming rate-cutting cycle, here’s what we learned from August’s highs and lows.

Back to school: 3 principles for your portfolio

As we prepare to say so long to summer, we thought it apt to review some investing basics for the year ahead.

How to invest into a multi-trillion megatrend

The global economy is evolving. The energy grid and supply chains are being reimagined. We see spending on these developments…

How to invest into a multi-trillion megatrend

The global economy is evolving. The energy grid and supply chains are being reimagined. We see spending on these developments…

Where does Japan go from here?

In this week’s Asia Strategy Focus, we address those questions and update our views on Japan, with the perspective that…

Helping speed and scale the future of climate and energy…

Earlier this year in Scottsdale, AZ, J.P. Morgan gathered CEOs, clean-tech pioneers, officials, and investors to strategize on…

Triple take: What did we learn this week?

Our thoughts on the Fed’s recent news, AI spending and geopolitics.

Elections and Silver Linings: Recent Surprises in Emergin…

We like the US, but global investors should still pay attention to emerging markets.

Building a robust investment portfolio: 3 ideas for how t…

With market risks rising, structured notes may be useful tools to help enhance portfolio resilience, generate income—and…

President Biden bows out of the election

What the change at the top of the Democratic ticket might mean for investors.

What’s driving the rotation into small-cap stocks?

There’s been a recent surge in small-cap stocks. What’s causing it, and what does it mean for investors?

Bank of Japan – to hike or not to hike?

In this week’s Asia Strategy Focus, we address the BoJ’s rate hike debate and assess the implications of that discussion on the…

How AI can boost productivity and jump start growth

Our analytic framework quantifies the potential economic impact of AI. We believe it could be transformative.

The great leap: Harnessing genAI to revolutionize Latin…

Latin America holds a US$100 billion opportunity if it leverages artificial intelligence (AI) over the next decade

Three big surprises that could drive markets in the secon…

We consider three ways markets could take investors by surprise in the second half of the year—and what each development might…

Myth-busting about derivatives: Are they right for your…

Some investors shy away from using derivatives because they’re thought to be complex and costly—but these tools can help…

Family governance: A new way for adult siblings to connect

Siblings may understandably grow apart over time. However, the quality of their relationships as adults can demonstrably impact…

Family Businesses: Passing the Baton

Tips for transitioning your business to the next generation

How much cash do you want to hold now—and why?

Your unique answer can be found in your values, family and goals.

How to stop cybercriminals at your digital doorstep

Follow these steps to reduce risks for small businesses and family offices.

Managing Passions: Planning the Future of an Art Collection

What are the different alternatives to transfer the ownership of art assets?

The first rule of philanthropy: Know your “why”

Having a clear idea of the impact you hope to achieve is the best starting point for a process that is rewarding—and often…

How your money can make more…of you

Financial planning isn’t just about managing your assets. It’s the key to having a life of meaning, purpose and impact

Recognizing email threats and social engineering

Hackers take advantage of our trust and natural willingness to be helpful by employing social engineering techniques to break…

Spotlight on Family Governance – Engaging the Next…

In this episode of our ‘Spotlight on Family Governance’ series we are talking with Basma al Zamil - a 3rd generation member of…

Stewardship and Purpose

We discussed wealth with the world’s wealthiest. Our findings in their words.

Help your teens and young adults get on the financial…

Make “financial fitness” part of their back-to-school program with these simple exercises.

Love and money: How to be open and honest about finances

Some couples avoid talking about wealth. But frank conversations can bring you closer together.

How much cash is too much cash?

Preparing young adults for wealth takes a runway

For young adults to emerge as family leaders, ages 20-35 are crucial. And during this time, there’s much you can do to help the…

Your house may be spying on you. Save yourself.

All the smart devices embedded in our homes put us at risk. Discover how to secure your Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and…

How to host meaningful family meetings throughout the year

Despite the challenges of the continued global pandemic, you can plan future family gatherings to sustain healthy connections.

Stewardship of family assets: Getting ready to grab the…

Understanding the aspirations of young family members is essential to nurture the next generation of caretakers of the family’s…

Near-and-dear assets deserve a special place in your trus…

Private businesses, real estate and/or mineral asset holdings for example, may have a special place in your heart as well as…

Wealth Planning

From essential updates on the tax landscape and how you can navigate it most efficiently, to tips on making the most out of the…

Here’s why you want to stress test your estate plan now

A quick guide to what you may want to examine—and when.

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