Eye on the Market

The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade

For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run.

• Michael Cembalest

Oct 17, 2024

Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election

The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years.

• Michael Cembalest

Sep 30, 2024

A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US…

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US…

NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial…

• Michael Cembalest

Sep 3, 2024

There’s no place like home

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

There’s no place like home

Work-from-home trends have plateaued at ~30%, which has important implications for owners of impaired office buildings. Most…

• Michael Cembalest

Aug 6, 2024

The Lion in Winter

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

The Lion in Winter

From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire perio…

• Michael Cembalest

Jul 23, 2024

The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State

The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory…

• Michael Cembalest

Jul 9, 2024

Presidential candidate replacement procedures

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

Presidential candidate replacement procedures

US Presidential elections: a brief primer on candidate replacement; Supreme Court decisions. As part of our ongoing coverage in…

• Michael Cembalest

Jul 3, 2024

A Piece of the Action

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

A Piece of the Action

Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues…

• Michael Cembalest

Jun 6, 2024

Animal Farm

Contains video.

Investment Strategy

Animal Farm

With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective.…

• Michael Cembalest

May 15, 2024

Cicadian Rhythms

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

Cicadian Rhythms

Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the…

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 24, 2024

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Contains video.

Investment Strategy

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: on tech valuations, AI, energy and US politics. Last week I spoke to the firm’s tech CEO…

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 2, 2024

Eye on the Market 14th Annual Energy Paper: Electravision

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

Eye on the Market 14th Annual Energy Paper: Electravision

The predominant vision for the future involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and…

• Michael Cembalest

Mar 5, 2024

Five Easy Pieces

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

Five Easy Pieces

Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and…

• Michael Cembalest

Feb 8, 2024

Medical Complications

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

Medical Complications

This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in…

• Michael Cembalest

Jan 23, 2024

Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk

Michael Cembalest takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises…

• Michael Cembalest

Jan 16, 2024

It's Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

It's Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review

A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and privat…

• Michael Cembalest

Dec 5, 2023

Not That 70's Show

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

Not That 70's Show

Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets

• Michael Cembalest

Nov 14, 2023

New York, Just Like I Pictured It

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

New York, Just Like I Pictured It

A comparison of NYC to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime,…

• Michael Cembalest

Oct 16, 2023

What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World

I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two year…

• Michael Cembalest

Sep 26, 2023

The Rasputin Effect: Global resilience to higher rates

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

The Rasputin Effect: Global resilience to higher rates

Explaining global economic and equity market resilience.

• Michael Cembalest

Aug 2, 2023

Mr. Toad's Wild Ride: The impact of underperforming 2020…

Contains video.

Economy & Markets

Mr. Toad's Wild Ride: The impact of underperforming 2020…

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs.

• Michael Cembalest

Jul 18, 2023

Letters to the Editor

Economy & Markets

Letters to the Editor

Letters to the Editor. To start, some comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence during the narrowest market…

• Michael Cembalest

Jun 14, 2023

Too Long at the Fair

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Too Long at the Fair

Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while.

• Michael Cembalest

May 23, 2023

Oh, The Places We Could Go

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Oh, The Places We Could Go

A recent article in the South China Morning Post was entitled “End of dollar dominance will also spell demise of US hegemony”. …

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 26, 2023

Frankenstein's Monster

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Frankenstein's Monster

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real…

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 10, 2023

13th Annual Energy Paper (2023)

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

13th Annual Energy Paper (2023)

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to.

• Michael Cembalest

Mar 28, 2023

Silicon Valley Bank failure

Economy & Markets

Silicon Valley Bank failure

One of these things is not like the other, and that thing is Silicon Valley Bank.

• Michael Cembalest

Mar 10, 2023

Winter Heating

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Winter Heating

US economy stays warm, large language model battles get hot.

• Michael Cembalest

Feb 21, 2023

American Gothic

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

American Gothic

The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it.

• Michael Cembalest

Jan 24, 2023

Eye on the Market Outlook 2023: The End of the Affair

Contains audio.

Investment Strategy

Eye on the Market Outlook 2023: The End of the Affair

The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins.

• Michael Cembalest

Jan 1, 2023

Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck

First, a gift for our clients: a 2022-themed non-fungible token for your digital collection embedded in the Eye on the Market. …

• Michael Cembalest

Dec 1, 2022

The Agony & The Ecstasy

Economy & Markets

The Agony & The Ecstasy

The risks and rewards of a concentrated stock position.

• Michael Cembalest

Nov 29, 2022

Little Red Wagon

Economy & Markets

Little Red Wagon

A preliminary read on midterm election results given the context of prevailing market and economic conditions.

• Michael Cembalest

Nov 10, 2022

A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving

A Thanksgiving list of things I am thankful for. My list this year: CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273.

• Michael Cembalest

Nov 2, 2022

Reruns

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Reruns

Three reruns for investors: equity declines, Thucydides Trap update, and the Pitcairn Problem.

• Michael Cembalest

Oct 19, 2022

Arrested Development

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Arrested Development

Three topics this week: the repricing of risky credit, labor markets and a COVID recap. While equities are pricing in a much…

• Michael Cembalest

Sep 26, 2022

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe…

• Michael Cembalest

Sep 6, 2022

The second gear of the Manchin-Schumer bill

Policy & Law

The second gear of the Manchin-Schumer bill

While the Manchin-Schumer bill (if passed) would almost certainly accelerate the US energy transition, nothing like a CBO…

• Michael Cembalest

Aug 1, 2022

Independence Days

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Independence Days

Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe…

• Michael Cembalest

Jun 27, 2022

Dearly beloved

Economy & Markets

Dearly beloved

Dearly Beloved: some comments on Jamie’s hurricane reference last week regarding the US economy, and a eulogy for unprofitable…

• Michael Cembalest

Jun 7, 2022

Bear Market Barometers

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Bear Market Barometers

The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. You can be patient when adding risk to portfolios; earnings…

• Michael Cembalest

May 17, 2022

12th Annual Energy Paper (2022)

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

12th Annual Energy Paper (2022)

We examine the energy landscape in 2022, including the energy crisis in Europe, deep decarbonization plans through…

• Michael Cembalest

May 4, 2022

The Tide Goes Out: Growth Trade Aftermath

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Tide Goes Out: Growth Trade Aftermath

Growth Trade Aftermath: asset allocation, equity mutual funds and hedge funds after the selloff

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 11, 2022

Surveying the Damage

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Surveying the Damage

Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investor…

• Michael Cembalest

Mar 22, 2022

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine; full steam ahead for the Fed; the paths not taken.

• Michael Cembalest

Mar 7, 2022

Russia/Ukraine update: energy implications

Economy & Markets

Russia/Ukraine update: energy implications

The brief note covers the price Europe is now paying for allowing its energy reliance on Russia to reach extreme levels, and th…

• Michael Cembalest

Feb 24, 2022

Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine

Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers.

• Michael Cembalest

Feb 15, 2022

The Maltese Falcoin

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Maltese Falcoin

On cryptocurrencies and the blockchain

• Michael Cembalest

Feb 3, 2022

Eye on the Market Outlook 2022 – Reflation: Endgame

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Eye on the Market Outlook 2022 – Reflation: Endgame

A look at the consequences of reflation for equity markets that are already pricing in plenty of good news.

• Michael Cembalest

Jan 1, 2022

Manchin and the reconciliation bill

Economy & Markets

Manchin and the reconciliation bill

You have all seen the news articles by now. The short version: Pelosi encouraged House Democrats to pass a bill that Manchin…

• Michael Cembalest

Dec 20, 2021

2021 Holiday Eye on the Market: The Middle Ages

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

2021 Holiday Eye on the Market: The Middle Ages

On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron

• Michael Cembalest

Dec 5, 2021

Thanksgiving Eye on the Market: “The Thing”

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Thanksgiving Eye on the Market: “The Thing”

Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.

• Michael Cembalest

Nov 15, 2021

Help Wanted

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Help Wanted

Topics: Labor shortages, the issue of Taiwan and an update on the most over-indebted US states

• Michael Cembalest

Oct 20, 2021

Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the…

• Michael Cembalest

Sep 27, 2021

Your Fall 2021 syllabus

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Your Fall 2021 syllabus

Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology…

• Michael Cembalest

Sep 7, 2021

Spaccine hesitancy

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Spaccine hesitancy

Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity…

• Michael Cembalest

Aug 18, 2021

Red Med Redemption

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Red Med Redemption

Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US…

• Michael Cembalest

Jul 26, 2021

Thy Brother's Keeper

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Thy Brother's Keeper

Topics: Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and a unified theory of…

• Michael Cembalest

Jul 13, 2021

Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

Economy & Markets

Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional…

• Michael Cembalest

Jun 28, 2021

An investor's look at the China recovery

Economy & Markets

An investor's look at the China recovery

Topics: An investor’s look at China’s recovery, the Sinopharm vaccine and the importance of scientific methods

• Michael Cembalest

Jun 8, 2021

Inflation. Duh!

Economy & Markets

Inflation. Duh!

This Eye on the Market addresses questions we’re receiving on markets, inflation, rates and capital gains taxes, and concludes…

• Michael Cembalest

May 24, 2021

11th Annual Energy Paper (2021)

Economy & Markets

11th Annual Energy Paper (2021)

We examine when and how renewable energy transitions might result in permanent reductions in CO₂ emissions.

• Michael Cembalest

May 4, 2021

Absolute Value

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Absolute Value

Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it…

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 15, 2021

The Smalligarchy

Economy & Markets

The Smalligarchy

How the narrowest political margins in decades could deliver one of the biggest taxation and spending increases in the post-war…

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 2, 2021

Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t…it’s amazing to see…

• Michael Cembalest

Mar 15, 2021

Very short stories

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Very short stories

Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable…

• Michael Cembalest

Feb 18, 2021

Hydraulic Spacking

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Hydraulic Spacking

In this month’s note, we look at the SPAC capital raising boom and Biden’s early stage energy policies.

• Michael Cembalest

Feb 8, 2021

Fear of Flying

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Fear of Flying

Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

• Michael Cembalest

Jan 19, 2021

Eye on the Market Outlook 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Eye on the Market Outlook 2021

Our views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’…

• Michael Cembalest

Jan 1, 2021

Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B…

• Michael Cembalest

Dec 15, 2020

The Armageddonists, Revisited

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Armageddonists, Revisited

The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with…

• Michael Cembalest

Nov 19, 2020

Quiet Flows the Don

Economy & Markets

Quiet Flows the Don

For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds.

• Michael Cembalest

Nov 9, 2020

Special EOTM Election update: Pennsylvania, absentee…

Economy & Markets

Special EOTM Election update: Pennsylvania, absentee…

During the President’s speech on Thursday, he made it clear that the next step in the process will be a wave of GOP litigation…

• Michael Cembalest

Nov 6, 2020

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

Economy & Markets

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

As the election outcome increasingly looks like a split decision (President Biden with a GOP Senate), we’re preparing for…

• Michael Cembalest

Nov 4, 2020

The United States vs Google, and Europe vs COVID

Economy & Markets

The United States vs Google, and Europe vs COVID

We’ve all been focused on the election recently, but there are other topics worth covering since they will affect markets…

• Michael Cembalest

Oct 23, 2020

Buckle Up!

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Buckle Up!

Pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions; Equity market impacts.

• Michael Cembalest

Oct 13, 2020

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

• Michael Cembalest

Oct 1, 2020

The Needle and the Damage Done

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Needle and the Damage Done

The long-term fiscal and monetary cost of the US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tec…

• Michael Cembalest

Sep 8, 2020

10th Annual Energy Paper (2020)

Economy & Markets

10th Annual Energy Paper (2020)

We examine when and how renewable energy transitions might result in permanent reductions in CO₂ emissions.

• Michael Cembalest

Jun 29, 2020

The Bounce

Economy & Markets

The Bounce

On the recovery in the economy and markets; latest updates on second waves, vaccine timetables and the Sweden experiment.

• Michael Cembalest

Jun 8, 2020

The day after: Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer…

Economy & Markets

The day after: Tracking the rebirth of the US consumer…

In this week’s note, we introduce real-time debit and credit card spending data to track the rebirth of the US consumer.

• Michael Cembalest

May 19, 2020

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

This week, we look at the US as it prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world.

• Michael Cembalest

May 11, 2020

State’s Rights

Economy & Markets

State’s Rights

The latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

• Michael Cembalest

May 4, 2020

Are we there yet?

Economy & Markets

Are we there yet?

Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet? Also, a review of the latest regional antibody test results and…

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 27, 2020

COVID and culture

Economy & Markets

COVID and culture

Collectivism vs Individualism and its impact on COVID infection rates; when US states might reopen; a history of US equity bottoms

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 20, 2020

The equity rally and the prospects for herd immunity

Economy & Markets

The equity rally and the prospects for herd immunity

The recent equity rally and antibody tests that could signal the onset of higher levels of immunity.

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 13, 2020

Man vs. nature, part II

Economy & Markets

Man vs. nature, part II

Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.

• Michael Cembalest

Apr 6, 2020

Man vs nature: What the government can and cannot fix

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Man vs nature: What the government can and cannot fix

There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can’t.

• Michael Cembalest

Mar 30, 2020

The virus, John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to…

Economy & Markets

The virus, John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to…

How quickly countries rebound from crisis and economic hardship.

• Michael Cembalest

Mar 20, 2020

The Pandemic Gap

Economy & Markets

The Pandemic Gap

The critical distinction between the “infected” and the “sick”, mortality rates, and important context around the Spanish Flu.

• Michael Cembalest

Mar 9, 2020

Berning Man

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Berning Man

An update on the Democratic Primary, and more on COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

• Michael Cembalest

Mar 4, 2020