Investment Strategy

Q2 2025 Investment review; Steady Hands Prevail

Market Comment

Where to begin; it was a quarter that even our AI fuelled LLM suite struggled to summarise! Indeed, if we tried to cover all the events and headlines, this would be a long read. But you would never know it from risk asset returns, which ‘round tripped’ over the quarter and ended with positive returns. A good illustration is the Volatility Index (VIX); a measure of S&P500 volatility, which spiked sharply higher on ‘Liberation day’ before subsiding as the quarter unfolded.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP. Data as of 6/30/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.

The cause? Well, the world experienced ‘the Art of the Deal’ first hand; President Trump announced tariffs on a much larger scale than expected, only for them to be steadily walked back as the quarter progressed. Few conclusions to make at this stage other than to say that the range of outcomes narrowed and in a positive direction i.e a more reasonable overall tariff rate. The VIX declined from a peak of 50 (a magnitude close to the ‘global financial crisis’) back down to the teens. Equities recovered to previous highs and credit spreads returned to their previous lows. Put another way, markets moved from pricing recession to a world in which the cycle keeps going.

Perhaps, the best reflection of the ‘real world’ came from Q1 corporate earnings results and outlook statements; the S&P500 recorded average earnings growth of 13% - far ahead of expectations. Corporates commented on the uncertainty of tariffs but the overriding message was one of ‘BAU’ (business as usual) and investing in AI to improve efficiency and protect margins, adding further support to AI capex being a secular theme.

Macro fundamentals have remained robust; in the US the June purchasing manager (PMI) index came in at 52.8 (anything above 50 represents growth), while Europe remained relatively flat at 50.2. Inflation continues a steady decline, with US annualised CPI at 2.4% and Europe at 1.9%. The European figure is notable given it is the first time that inflation has fallen below the ECB target of 2% since Covid. As such, the ECB can continue cutting rates (given low growth) and base rates are expected to reach 1.5% this year. That would suggest negative real returns for holding Euro cash and so, once again, European investors are faced with having to invest to avoid long term wealth erosion.

The US on the other hand still has inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and with growth holding up, rate cuts are on pause.

This widening of the rate differential is relevant to FX (foreign exchange) markets. The USD has continued to weaken over the quarter, particularly vs the Euro. We feel that is because fiscal expansion in Europe (e.g. defence spending across Europe and infrastructure spending from Germany) is narrowing the future growth gap between the US and Europe. The bias is for USD to weaken further but the extent will be limited by that wider interest rate differential and it remains the case that the US is set to continue as a faster growing economy than Europe – aside from the secular growth in tech, there are tax cuts coming and potentially further de-regulation under the Trump regime.

In terms of geo-politics, rising conflict has added to global uncertainty. As tragic as it is, markets seems to be substantially looking through the troubles. While the escalation between Israel and Iran caused a spike in oil prices, that has rapidly subsided and oil prices are down c. 10% from the start of the year – a helpful disinflationary force, particularly for Europe and further reason to think that the path of central bank interest rates will be down rather than up.

So with tariff talk and geo-politics to the fore, how can markets be so strong? We expect more tit for tat tariff negotiations but for the topic to be substantially played out this year. We expect a slowing of the US economy this year but a re-acceleration next year due to greater tariff clarity, tax cuts, secular AI spend and looser fiscal policy. Markets are focused on 2026 and the prospect of continued earnings growth. It’s notable that earnings have outpaced stock markets this year, so despite markets being higher, valuations have come down a touch. Not cheap but justified. And tight credit spreads (the premium that corporate debt trades at vs government bonds) suggests that the cycle continues, supported by a bias to falling interest rates.

2025 Index Returns Across Different Currencies

Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 31/12/2024,. 

Key portfolio activity over the quarter

Given the extent of volatility and headlines, one might have expected increased re-positioning. But this would most likely have led to under-performance given the re-bound in markets since ‘liberation day’ with US equities and particularly the technology sector driving the rebound – steady hands prevail. Nevertheless, we did marginally reduce equity risk early in April because of the tariff uncertainty and added to Core bonds.

In May we repositioned some sector exposures, taking profits in US consumer staples and industrials, while adding to European financials and communication services. Following the further rebound in markets, we decided to rebalance portfolios in early June back to our preferred tactical levels, which meant trimming some equity exposure – a risk management exercise that is central to how we run portfolios.

There was a final re-balancing exercise at the end of June, which saw us diversify our sector exposures, reducing tech in the US on valuation grounds and adding to industrials in Europe.

High-level positioning

Although we are neutral in our stock/bond mix, we retain a pro-cyclical bias through a 4% overweight to high yield – split equally between Europe and the US. Geographically, we retain a small overweight to the US equity market vs Europe. At the sector level, our overweights are technology, financials and healthcare, having taken profits in staples. In absolute terms, tech related companies (c.40%) and financials (c.20%) are the main drivers of equity exposure and we feel both sectors have good earnings outlooks.

Within fixed income, we are underweight Core bonds in favour of high yield and neutral duration at around 6.5 years at the portfolio level. Because high yield is shorter duration, our Core bonds (investment grade and government bonds) have slighter higher duration of around 6.9 years. That means that we are balancing a pro-cyclical overall position with some defence in fixed income should growth disappoint. We retain conviction that in that event, holding duration will protect i.e. negatively correlate with equities. At the sub-sector level, we remain overweight securitised MBS.

For portfolios with hedge funds, we are positioned in line with the strategic allocation and have a slight bias to relative value and global macro.

Returns

Despite the headline worries, Q2 witnessed positive returns across asset classes and a particularly significant rebound in the S&P500 vs the rest of the world, triggered by expectation-beating corporate earnings growth. Fixed income returns across investment grade and high yield were also positive and out-performed cash. So this was a quarter where it paid to look long term and stay invested globallyFor USD-based investors, while majority of the portfolio is invested in  USD, it is diversified into-non-USD assets through international equities allocation. We do not hedge equity allocations because over the long run, equity returns outweigh FX volatility.

Outlook

We see a disconnect between the negative headlines and what corporates are telling us – tariff uncertainty has reduced activity at the margin but capital investment continues strongly though AI – investing to improve productivity and protect margins. Cost bases are being kept tight and that’s why employment data is softening a touch but there’s nothing that indicates preparing for a major slow down. Indeed, we see economic growth improving in 2026; in the US through tax cuts and de-regulation, in Europe through increased fiscal spending on defence and infrastructure. Valuations in the US are high by historic standards but we think fair given secular growth in AI combined with more stable earnings from subscription based businesses.

Regarding fixed income, the long term path remains falling inflation (looking through short term tariff impacts) and therefore the path of rates is down from what are currently restrictive levels; that suggest total returns in line or above current yields.

A big question remains the path of the USD. While further downside is possible, we feel the majority of the move is behind us and that interest rates differentials will ultimately support a stabilisation in USD.

Finally on a technical point, there remains significant cash on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. The ‘dip’ that everyone wants to buy isn’t clear to us and so without a major change in the global macro picture, the ‘pain trade’ is a gradual grinding higher of risk assets. If we’re wrong and growth worsens, we have duration in the portfolio to help protect. We are not taking undue risk in the portfolios being only mildly pro-cyclical (overweight high yield) but remain constructive on markets over the next year.

Important Information

Benchmark definitions

All index performance information has been obtained from third parties and should not be relied upon as being complete or accurate. They are not investment products available for purchase. Indices are unmanaged and generally do not take into account fees or expenses. Furthermore, while some alternative investment indices ay provide useful indications of the general performance of the alternative investment industry or particular alternative investment strategies, all alternative investment indices are subject to selection, valuation survivorship and entry biases, and lack transparency with respect to their proprietary computations.

MSCI WORLD INDEX: The MSCI World Index is a free-float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global developed markets. (Source: MSCI Barra)

MSCI EUROPE INDEX: The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid cap representation across 15 Developed Markets (DM) countries in Europe*. With 448 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the European Developed Markets equity universe. (Source: MSCI Barra)

MSCI JAPAN INDEX: The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Japanese market. With 318 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan. (Source: MSCI Barra)

S&P 500 INDEX: The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equities market, includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with 75% coverage (based on total stock market capitalization) of U.S. equities, it is also an ideal proxy for the total market. (Source: Standard & Poor’s)

STOXX Europe 600: The STOXX Europe 600 index represents large, mid and small capitalization companies across 17 countries of the European region.

NIKKEI 225: The Nikkei 225 is a price-weighted equity index, which consists of 225 stocks in the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

NASDAQ: The Nasdaq Composite Index is a stock index that conveys the overall performance of all Nasdaq-listed stocks according to market capitalization.

CAC 40: A broad-based index of common stocks composed of 40 of the 100 largest companies listed on the forward segment of the official list of the Paris Bourse.

DAX: The DAX is a German blue chip stock market index that tracks the performance of the 40 largest companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

MSCI EM: The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of 23 countries representing 10% of world market capitalization. The Index is available for a number of regions, market segments/sizes and covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each of the 23 countries. (Source: MSCI)

BARCLAYS GLOBAL AGGREGATE BOND INDEX: The Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index that is comprised of several other Barclays indexes that measure fixed income performance of regions around the world. (Source: Barclays)

BARCLAYS GLOBAL CORPORATE HIGH YIELD INDEX: The Barclays Global Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition, are excluded. (Source: Barclays)

BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVESTMENT GRADE INDEX: The Barclays Global Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD denominated securities publicly issued by industrial, utility and financial issuers. (Source: Barclays)

HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index: The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. It is comprised of all eligible hedge fund strategies; including but not limited to convertible arbitrage, distressed securities, equity hedge, equity market neutral, event driven, macro, merger arbitrage, and relative value arbitrage. The strategies are asset weighted based on the distribution of assets in the hedge fund industry. Index returns are net of fees. Performance is reported on a 180 day lag, so recent performance numbers are flash estimates. (Source: HFR)

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that provides information about the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers in various industries and is used to gauge business conditions, including factors such as output, new orders, inventory levels, employment, and prices. (Source: ISM)

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The US Q1 earnings season exceeded expectations, with US assets and technology showing strong performance since 'Liberation Day.' Inflation remains stable despite tariff concerns, leading to the notable trend of rising equities. Explore these developments further.

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Jun 27, 2025

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