Atualizamos nosso Panorama de Mercado. Esperamos uma recuperação e estamos progressivamente acrescentando ativos de risco aos portfólios. A primeira onda da pandemia está passando. O céu parece estar um pouco mais limpo, apenas o suficiente para avaliar os prejuízos e ter uma noção do que virá mais à frente.
Pânico no mercado
Disrupção e incerteza econômica atingiram em cheio o mundo todo
O índice S&P 500 atingiu sua alta histórica em fevereiro. Ao fim de março, a crise da COVID-19 levou às mais severas retrações econômicas e de mercado dos últimos 100 anos. Veja como a transformação ocorreu:
Escalada de alívio
O mercado começou a aceitar o novo normal
O pânico do mercado se dissipou—apesar de o número de casos do vírus ter chegado a mais de 2 milhões nos EUA e quase 8 milhões no mundo todo.
A pergunta é: por quê?
Nossa resposta: A primeira escalada parece ter sido mais uma expressão de alívio do que uma recuperação econômica.
Os investidores venderam ativos de risco quando ficaram apavorados com os custos econômicos do lockdown geral e quando a COVID-19 representava uma ameaça existencial.
Então, a extensão do impacto do coronavírus sobre a economia ficou mais clara, houve um platô de novos casos (com a exceção de alguns mercados emergentes), a economia mundial começou a se abrir e os legisladores ofereceram um apoio robusto. Os mercados de risco se reanimaram.
O mercado de ações está ignorando o prejuízo à economia real?
Jake Manoukian, Estrategista Global de Mercado
Jake Manoukian:
Uma das perguntas mais difíceis, com a qual estamos lutando e tentando responder nos dois últimos meses é: como o mercado de ações pode estar indo tão bem, quando a situação na economia real ainda parece tão desastrosa? 40 milhões de americanos solicitaram o seguro-desemprego, mas o mercado de ações está a apenas 10% de suas altas recentes. Quase parece que o mercado de ações está ignorando os danos à economia real. Mas quando olhamos abaixo da superfície, começamos a perceber que não é esse o caso. A primeira coisa que nos ajuda a entender essa questão é relembrar um quadro que apresentamos no meio da crise da COVID.
Em 23 de março, dissemos que precisávamos ver três parâmetros para que os ativos de risco chegassem ao fundo. O primeiro era um pico e depois declínio de novos casos de COVID. O segundo era uma pronta reação do Federal Reserve dos EUA para ajudar a resolver problemas e melhorar os mercados de renda, e o terceiro é um pacote robusto de apoio fiscal do Congresso dos EUA. Durante aquela semana, começamos a ver sinais de que essas três coisas estavam acontecendo. Os mercados chegaram ao fundo e têm se recuperado um pouco desde então. Agora, essas três coisas não catalisaram toda a recuperação, mas o que aconteceu foi que, em geral, o mundo está melhorando e não piorando. E isso às vezes significa muito para os mercados de ações.
A outra coisa importante é lembrar que o S&P 500 não representa toda a economia. De forma direta, são as 500 maiores ações de empresas nos EUA. Essas têm fluxos de receitas bem estabelecidos e acesso a capital que nem todas as empresas menores têm. Então, quando consideramos as divergências por baixo da superfície do S&P 500, torna-se claro que o mercado não está realmente esperando uma forte retomada do crescimento econômico. Essas áreas seculares de crescimento, como tecnologia e saúde, realmente têm segurado o desempenho para o restante do índice, e quando se tem setores como tecnologia, que provavelmente está levando vantagem e crescendo com o mundo socialmente distante, quando essas ações representam 40% da capitalização de mercado e rendimentos, é uma grande coisa.
Pelo lado negativo, as empresas que estão mais alavancadas a esse crescimento econômico cíclico e tangível, como bancos e energia, ainda estão precificando suportes significativos. Então, não parece que os mercados estejam realmente esperando um retorno robusto do crescimento econômico neste momento, eles estão apenas escolhendo os vencedores e perdedores e refletindo a realidade da situação. A coisa mais interessante que tem acontecido recentemente é que algumas dessas empresas ciclicamente alavancadas, como energia e bancos, começaram a alcançar aquelas empresas de crescimento secular, como na área de tecnologia. Se continuarem, isso pode representar algo positivo no panorama. Então estamos acompanhando isso.
BRG – JPMPB – Mid-Year Outlook: Jake – Text Alternative Script
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Investment Insights: Is the stock market ignoring the damage in the real economy?
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Jake Manoukian, Global Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Jake:
One of the most difficult questions that we've been struggling with and trying to answer for the last two months is: How can the stock market be doing so well when the situation on the ground and the real economy still seems so dire? Forty million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance, but the stock market is only 10% from its recent highs. It almost seems like the stock market is ignoring the damage in the real economy.
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Forty million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance, but the stock market is only 10% from its recent highs.
But when you look underneath the surface, you start to realize that that isn't really the case.
The first thing that that helps you reconcile is remembering a framework that we put out in the midst of the COVID crisis. On March 23rd we said that we needed to see three parameters for risk assets to find a bottom. The first was a peak and then a decline in new COVID cases. The second was a swift response from the Federal Reserve to help fix issues and fix income markets, and the third is a robust fiscal support package from Congress.
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Three parameters for risk assets to find a bottom.
1. Peak and then decline in new COVID cases.
2. Swift response from the Federal Reserve.
3. Robust fiscal support package from Congress.
Jake:
During that week we started to see signs that we were getting all three of those things. Markets found a bottom and have been rallying more or less ever since. Now, those three things didn't catalyze the entire rally, but what did is that, in general, the world has been getting better and not worse. And that means a lot to stock markets sometimes.
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S&P 500 is not representative of the entire economy. It's 500 of the largest stock companies in the country.
Jake:
The other thing that's critical to remember is that the S&P 500 is not representative of the entire economy. Just, right off the bat, it's 500 of the largest stock companies in the country. It has well-established revenue streams and it has access to capital that not all businesses maybe on Main Street do. Then, when you consider the divergences underneath the surface of the S&P 500, it becomes clear that the market isn't really expecting a strong return to economic growth.
These kind of secular growth areas like technology and healthcare have really been buoying performance for the rest of the index, and when you have sectors like technology, which arguably is taking advantage of, and growing from, this socially distanced world, when they make up 40% of market cap and earnings that's a big deal.
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A line chart appears labeled: "Many sectors have bounced back quickly." The chart reads: "Price Index - December 31st, 2019 = 100." The chart shows:
· FANG+ at about 125 in mid-February, at about 85 in mid-March, and at about 115 in mid-May.
· E-Commerce at about 110 in mid-February, at about 78 in mid-March, and at about 108 in mid-May.
· Biotech at about 102 in mid-February, at about 72 in mid-March, and at about 105 in mid-May.
· Home Improvement at about 110 in mid-February, at about 68 in mid-March, and at about 102 in mid-May.
· Technology at about 110 in mid-February, at about 80 in mid-March, and at about 102 in mid-May.
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Source: FactSet, Standard & Poors. May 25th, 2020.
Jake:
On the flip side, the companies that are most levered to that cyclical, tangible economic growth, like banks and energy, are still pricing in significant struts. So, at once it doesn't seem like markets are really expecting a robust return to economic growth; they're just picking winners and losers and reflecting the reality of the situation.
The most interesting thing that's been happening recently is that some of those cyclically levered companies -so think energy and banks- have been starting to catch up to those secular growth companies like technology.
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Trend to watch:
Cyclically levered companies may start to catch up to secular growth companies.
Jake:
And if that were to play out further that would represent a material positive to the outlook. So, that's something that we're watching.
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Realidades econômicas
Ações cíclicas, renda fixa e moedas e commodities ainda sugerem uma recuperação morna
Os mercados ainda parecem ter um panorama de curto prazo não muito inspirador, mesmo depois da recente recuperação. Ações cíclicas, renda fixa e moedas e commodities, todos ainda se beneficiariam se a atual trajetória fosse mantida.
Durante toda a crise, houve alguns "vencedores" perceptíveis, muitos ligados a duas das "mega-tendências" globais que foram destacadas no panorama de mercado de 2020, que publicamos no início do ano. Essas "mega-tendências" — transformação digital e inovação na área da saúde — oferecem oportunidades seculares convincentes que esperamos que continuem. Na verdade, a crise da COVID-19 provavelmente acelerou a mudança em direção a uma economia digital, e a inovação na área de saúde pode oferecer a resolução da pandemia.
Mega-tendências: quais setores estão melhor posicionados para ter um desempenho superior na próxima década?
Anastasia Amoroso, Head de Estratégia Temática de Ativos
Anastasia Amoroso:
Meu nome é Anastasia Amoroso, Head de Estratégia Temática de Ativos do J.P. Morgan Private Bank. O mundo que conhecemos foi transformado pela recente pandemia da COVID e fez com que muitos de nós nos perguntássemos: como é o novo normal? Como será o mundo pós-COVID? O maior aprendizado é que a COVID reforçou e acelerou, significativamente, muitas das tendências duráveis que já existiam antes da pandemia. Nós as chamamos de mega-tendências.
O que é uma mega-tendência? É uma tendência que vai mudar, moldar e causar disrupção em nossas vidas, não só nos próximos trimestres, mas nos próximos três a cinco anos. Estamos focados em três mega-tendências, em particular. Transformação digital, inovação na saúde e sustentabilidade. Elas não são novas tendências, por si só, e os setores que estão se beneficiando delas, tecnologia e saúde, já estavam indo muito bem. Então, por que acreditamos que esses setores e ações vão continuar apresentando um desempenho superior?
Essas mega-tendências estão ajudando a fomentar um crescimento de dois dígitos nos lucros de parte dos setores de tecnologia, biotecnologia e energias limpas. E o que descobrimos foi que, com outros fatores se mantendo iguais, esses índices de crescimento muito acima do parâmetro são o que tenderam a levar a um desempenho superior de longo prazo. E damos um passo mais além. Pode ser que, no curto prazo, muito do otimismo tenha sido já precificado, mas no longo prazo, não acreditamos que tenha se considerado otimismo suficiente nos preços.
Isso porque, apesar de as previsões da indústria serem ambiciosas, as estimativas de empresas e de analistas tendem a ser bastante conservadoras. Deixe-me dar alguns exemplos do que acreditamos que ainda não foi precificado, mas pode levar ao desempenho superior duradouro dos setores de tecnologia, biotecnologia e energias limpas. Sabemos que, em tecnologia, o crescimento e os dados são as tendências mais proeminentes nas tecnologias. Assim como a computação em nuvem, o 5G ultrarrápido e a inteligência artificial estão nos ajudando a capturar essa tendência. Mas ainda estamos nos estágios muito iniciais dessas tecnologias.
Por exemplo, a adoção dos smartphones 5G pode alcançar apenas 15% até o final de 2020. A adoção da nuvem pelas empresas está em apenas 20%, apesar de ter se acelerado de maneira rápida e significativa por conta da COVID. E, para a inteligência artificial, somente 20% das empresas adotaram a IA em escala. Então, a oportunidade de escalar essas tecnologias é imensa. E isso sem falar das novas tecnologias, como realidade aumentada, cirurgias remotas ou direção autônoma que as tecnologias anteriores ajudarão a tornar possível.
Na verdade, a adoção de 5G pelas empresas é uma oportunidade com potencial de US$ 700 bilhões para provedores de serviços, ainda a ser capturada. E a inteligência artificial é uma oportunidade de US$ 60 trilhões para agregar valor econômico até 2030, também ainda a ser capturada. Na área de saúde, a inovação não é nenhuma novidade. Mas a velocidade dela é. Em 2003, levou 13 anos para completar a primeira sequência de referência do genoma humano completo. Atualmente, podemos sequenciar um genoma em menos de 24 horas.
A outra coisa que é realmente interessante no setor de saúde é que existe confluência entre as descobertas na genética e na inteligência artificial, que são incrivelmente poderosas, e está acelerando ainda mais a inovação básica. Então, tudo isso está sendo capturado nas valorizações? Acreditamos que não.
Dado o nível atual de P&D, podemos ver US$ 255 bilhões em receitas adicionais do setor até 2024. Se isso acontecer e metade disso for para a biotecnologia, as receitas do índice do NASDAQ Biotech vão praticamente dobrar dos níveis atuais. Isso ainda não foi calculado, mas será no futuro, conforme as aprovações de drogas passarem de conceitos e probabilidades para certezas e realidades. Este pipeline robusto de novas moléculas está alimentando uma taxa média de crescimento de 27% para 2022, e é por isso que acreditamos que a biotecnologia tem a chance de sair dessa faixa de negociação de cinco anos e partir para além dela.
A sustentabilidade será um dos movimentos definidores desta década. Como fazer uso mais eficaz dos nossos recursos naturais, ao mesmo tempo em que minimizamos o dano ao meio ambiente e garantimos que todos tenham acesso a itens básicos como comida, água e ar limpo? A sustentabilidade tem a ver com isso, e muito mais. Consideramos que apenas 26% do nosso mix global de energia é de renováveis. Somente 9% das nossas empresas e governos foram criados para uma economia circular.
A oportunidade de melhorar essa porcentagem é imensa. Isso foi já foi bem divulgado, mas olhando para as previsões anteriores, descobrimos que, repetidamente, a adoção real, o aumento real na geração de renováveis superou essas previsões. E isso quando o custo da energia eólica e solar era mais alto do que é hoje. Nós vimos isso cair significativamente. E agora se tornou não só uma decisão responsável para as empresas adotarem uma mudança para conceitos circulares e de energia limpa, mas também se torna cada vez mais uma decisão econômica.
Então, acreditamos que a velocidade de adoção das práticas de sustentabilidade como energia limpa irão nos surpreender e, levar essas ações a terem um desempenho superior. Agradeço muito pelo interesse neste tópico. Isso é apenas o início. Vamos continuar as atualizações sobre os próximos desenvolvimentos e novas tecnologias, como a realidade aumentada, cirurgias remotas, saúde de precisão, economia circular, tecnologia alimentar e muito, muito mais. Estamos à disposição para trabalhar junto com vocês para identificar oportunidades de investimento em cada uma dessas mega-tendências.
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Megatrends. Which sectors are poised to outperform in the next decade?
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An executive with long blonde hair and green eyes, Anastasia Amoroso, speaks to us remotely.
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Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Ms. Amoroso:
My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. The world as we know it has been upended by the recent COVID pandemic and left many of us wondering, what does the new normal look like? What is this world post-COVID going to be? The biggest takeaway is that COVID has significantly strengthened and accelerated many of the durable trends that were in place even before that. We like to call them megatrends.
So what is a megatrend? It is a trend that is going to change and shape, and disrupt our lives not only in the next couple of quarters, but over the next three to five years. So we are focused on three such megatrends in particular: digital transformation, healthcare innovation and sustainability. Now these are not new trends per se, and the sectors that are benefiting from them, tech and healthcare, have done quite well. So why do we think these sectors and stocks are going to continue to deliver outperformance?
These megatrends are helping fuel double-digit earnings growth for parts of tech, biotech and clean energy sectors. And what we found is that, all else equal, these well-above benchmark growth rates is what tended to drive long-term outperformance.
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A bar chart appears, labeled "Tech and Biotech have cumulatively (though not always consistently) outperformed over the past two decades." The chart shows:
SPX at about 0.5% between 2001 and 2005;
SPX at about 3% between 2006 and 2010;
SPX at about 2% between 2001 and 2010;
SPX at about 12% between 2011 and 2015;
SPX at about 13% between 2016 and 2019;
SPX at about 6%, overall, between 2001 and 2019.
Tech at about negative 3% between 2001 and 2005;
Tech at about 10% between 2006 and 2010;
Tech at about 3% between 2001 and 2010;
Tech at about 13% between 2011 and 2015;
Tech at about 24% between 2016 and 2019;
Tech at about 10%, overall, between 2001 and 2019.
Biotech at about 7% between 2001 and 2005;
Biotech at about 0% between 2006 and 2010;
Biotech at about 2.5% between 2001 and 2010;
Biotech at about 35% between 2011 and 2015;
Biotech at about 2% between 2016 and 2019;
Biotech at about 11%, overall, between 2001 and 2019.
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Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet. As of May 1st. 2020.
Ms. Amoroso:
And we take it a step further. It may be that, very near term, a lot of optimism has been priced in, but the longer term, we think not enough optimism has been priced in. This is because while industry forecasts are ambitious, company and analyst estimates tend to be quite conservative. Let me give you a few examples of what we think is yet to be priced in but could lead to lasting outperformance of tech, biotech and clean energy.
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Digital Transformation.
Ms. Amoroso:
We know that in technology, growth and data is the most prominent trend in technologies. Like cloud computing, ultra-fast 5G and artificial intelligence are helping us capture this trend. But we’re still so early in the very early stages of these technologies. For example, 5G smartphone adoption may reach only 15% by the end of 2020. The enterprise adoption of the cloud is running at only 20%, although this is being significantly and rapidly accelerated due to COVID. And for artificial intelligence, only 20% of enterprises have adopted AI at scale.
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A bar graph labeled "We are still in early stages of adoption of new technologies" shows the adoption rates for 5G, cloud, and AI.
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Small print text: Source: "Global Handset Model," J.P. Morgan North America Research. March 2020. "Cloud Adoption to accelerate IT modernization." McKinsey 2018. "Talent and workforce effects in the age of AI." Deloitte. March 2020.
Ms. Amoroso:
So the opportunity to scale up these technologies is immense. And by the way, not to mention new technologies like augmented reality, remote surgery or autonomous driving that the former technologies will help enable. In fact, enterprise adoption of 5G is a potential $700 billion opportunity for service providers, yet to be captured. And artificial intelligence is a $60 trillion opportunity to add economic value by 2030, also yet to be captured.
In healthcare, innovation is certainly not new. But the speed of it is. In 2003, it took 13 years to complete the first reference sequence of the full human genome. Today, we can sequence a genome in less than 24 hours. The other thing that’s really interesting in healthcare is that there’s this confluence of breakthroughs in genetics and artificial intelligence that is incredibly powerful, and it is further accelerating basic innovation.
So is all of that captured evaluations? We don’t think so. Given the current level of R&D, we can see $255 billion in additional industry revenues by 2024. If that pans out and half of that accrues to biotech, the revenues of the NASDAQ Biotech Index will almost double from today’s levels.
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A bar chart appears, labeled "Sales should rebound, orphan drug market to almost double." It shows values, in 2018, with Prescription, excluding generics and orphan, at about 600 billion US Dollars; Orphan, at about 700 billion US Dollars; and Generics, at about 800 billion US Dollars. (The chart shows that this represents a slight increase in a steady market, since 2010.)
The chart also forecasts sharp growth. It projects, by 2024: Prescription, excluding generics and orphan, to be nearly 800 billion US Dollars; Orphan, to be about 1000 billion US Dollars; and Generics, to be about 1100 billion US Dollars.
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Small print text appears.
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Compound Annual Growth Rate, 2019 to 2024: 6.9%.
Source: "World preview 2019, Outlook to 2024," EvaluatePharma Vision. May 2019.
Ms. Amoroso:
This is not yet enterprised today, but will be in the future as drug approvals go from concepts and probabilities to certainties and realities. This robust pipeline of new molecules is fueling 27% average growth rate through 2022, and this is why we think biotech has a chance to break out of this five-year trading range and break out to the outside.
Sustainability will be one of the defining movements of this decade. How can we make the most efficient use of our natural resources while minimizing the damage to the environment and ensuring everybody has access to basics, like food, water, and clean air? That’s what sustainability is about, and more. We’ll consider that only 26% of our global energy mix today is from renewables. Only 9% of our companies and governments are designed for a circular economy.
The opportunity to increase this percentage is immense. Now this has been well telegraphed, but looking back at prior forecasts, we find that time and time again, the actual adoption, the actual increase in renewables generation outpaced those forecasts. And that was when the cost of wind and solar was higher than it is today. We’ve seen that fall significantly. And now it is becoming not only a responsible decision for companies to adopt to move to circular concepts and clean energy concepts, but it is also increasingly becoming an economic decision.
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A line chart appears, labeled "Cost of wind, solar, natural gas, and coal." It shows:
Wind's levelized cost of energy at 135 in 2009 and at about 42 in 2018;
Wind's dollar per megawatt hour at about 375 in 2009 and at about 5 in 2018;
Solar's levelized cost of energy at 130 in 2009 and at about 42 in 2018;
Solar's dollar per megawatt hour at about 375 in 2009 and at about 40 in 2018;
Natural gas's levelized cost of energy at about 84 in 2009 and at about 60 in 2018;
Natural gas's dollar per megawatt hour at about 150 in 2009 and at about 75 in 2018;
Coal's levelized cost of energy at 110 in 2009 and at about 105 in 2018;
Coal's dollar per megawatt hour at about 260 in 2009 and at about 250 in 2018.
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Small print text appears.
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Source: Lazard, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. LCOE is "levelized" cost of energy, the net present value of the unit cost of electricity over the lifetime of a generating asset.
It is often taken as a proxy for the average price that the generating asset must receive in a market to break even over its lifetime. Data is based on availability as of November 30th, 2019.
Ms. Amoroso:
So we think it is likely that the speed of adoption of sustainability practices like clean energy will surprise to the outside, ultimately helping drive those stocks’ outperformance. Thank you so much for your interest in this topic. This is just a start. We will continue to update on upcoming developments and new technologies like augmented reality, remote surgery, precision health, circular economy, food tech, and much, much more. So we look forward to working with you in finding investment opportunities within each one of these megatrends.
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Altas expectativas
Duas mega-tendências globais — transformação digital e inovação na área da saúde — ajudaram a criar alguns dos vencedores recentes:
- O setor de tecnologia subiu mais de 6% este ano
- Ações de biotecnologia subiram cerca de 10%
- Empresas ligadas ao e-commerce subiram mais de 14%
Baixas expectativas
Muitos setores e classes de ativos ainda estão sugerindo uma expectativa de crescimento econômico fraco no futuro, mesmo após a alta mais recente:
- Ações "small cap" tiveram desempenho mais baixo que as "large caps" em 10% até agora, este ano
- Mais de 163 ações do S&P 500 caíram mais de 20% no acumulado do ano
- Ações de bancos nos Estados Unidos estão em baixa de quase 30% de suas altas de 52 semanas
- Ações de mercados emergentes ainda estão mais de 25% abaixo de suas altas de janeiro de 2018
- Rendimentos do Tesouro dos EUA (10 anos) ainda estão abaixo de 1%, o que sinaliza que investidores de títulos têm expectativa de baixo crescimento e inflação futuros
- Spreads de títulos de alto rendimento ainda estão indicando um ciclo de inadimplência semelhante à crise financeira mundial de 2007–2008
- O ouro, um paraíso seguro tradicional, teve uma recuperação, juntamente com o dólar americano e o iene japonês
- Metais industriais e petróleo bruto caíram a níveis consistentes com o colapso do superciclo das commodities de 2015 e 2016
Visões mundiais
Veja o que nossas equipes estão visualizando…
Investindo com intenção
O que os investidores devem fazer?
Nosso Outlook Semestral é de que uma recuperação virá, e pode até já ter começado. A retração foi severa e dolorosa; levará a consequências duradouras.
Mas há motivos para acreditar que essa recuperação econômica pode acontecer mais rápido que aquela que veio após a crise financeira global. Provavelmente também será bastante semelhante em vários aspectos: inflação baixa e estável, baixas taxas de juros e lucros crescentes. Também esperamos que algumas tendências se acelerem: tensões geopolíticas, digitalização, inovação em saúde e aumento das lacunas de riqueza e renda. Ainda assim, o caminho da recuperação é obscuro. Modelos de negócios foram compulsoriamente interrompidos. Há questões relativas à viabilidade de longo prazo do setor imobiliário corporativo. Em meio a esse pano de fundo, as valorizações parecem completas. É por isso que mantemos um underweight modesto para ações referente a nosso benchmark estratégico. Além disso, ainda acreditamos que a renda fixa principal pode oferecer um importante equilíbrio contra outros ativos de risco.
Reconstruindo o posicionamento pró-cíclico
O impacto do coronavírus na economia tem sido um lembrete importante para todos os investidores, para que esperem o inesperado. Nós nos baseamos na diversificação para nos ajudar a enfrentar tempestades inesperadas. As ações podem ter caído 14% até agora este ano, mas os títulos subiram 5%.
Estamos focados em navegar pela volatilidade e na proteção contra o risco. Ao mesmo tempo, começamos uma abordagem deliberada e cuidadosa para reconstruir uma inclinação "pró-cíclica" nos portfólios (ex.: overweight de ações e ativos de risco.) O primeiro passo foi alocar aos títulos de alto rendimento, que acreditamos que apresentam um perfil de recompensa de risco atraente em relação às ações, já que spreads ainda estão sugerindo um ciclo de inadimplência significativo. Além disso, neste momento, acrescentamos aos ativos que têm exposição à economia física se a recuperação surpreender e for boa.
Esperar o inesperado: Definindo um plano para o seu patrimônio em tempos de volatilidade
Jamie Lavin, Head de Assessoria
Jamie Lavin:
Meu nome é Jamie Lavin Buzzard, e sou Head de Assessoria no J.P. Morgan, para o Private Bank dos EUA.
O primeiro semestre de 2020 foi, em uma palavra, inesperado. Os mercados financeiros do mundo todo tiveram sell-offs acentuados. Entretanto, o S&P 500, desde que atingiu essas baixas, nos 50 dias seguintes de negociação, teve mais de 40% de recuperação.
Se você é um investidor diversificado, o que significa que tem tanto ações quanto títulos, em uma base de um ano, provavelmente está com o portfólio em linha plana. Mas sabemos que o caminho até aqui não parece ter sido tão tranquilo. Como investidores, também sabemos que devemos esperar o inesperado, e este ano comprovou isso como nunca antes.
Como os mercados de risco tiveram sell-off, reduzimos nossa exposição a ações, e estamos felizes em como a renda fixa está protegida das quedas. Agora, estamos cuidadosamente e deliberadamente adicionando aos ativos de risco.
Talvez, mais importante que mudanças táticas, principalmente durante tempos turbulentos, é focar no que é possível controlar. Os objetivos que você determina para sua família e a intenção para o seu patrimônio ajudam a definir como seus ativos são investidos, de forma que ofereça uma maior probabilidade de se atingir esses objetivos. Compreender o caminho e o risco que precisa enfrentar para chegar lá é uma das maneiras mais eficazes em tempos de volatilidade. Também recomendamos revisitar seu planejamento de sucessão para garantir que suas intenções são as esperadas.
Finalmente, se o seu objetivo é uma doação aos familiares ou oferecer um empréstimo dentro da família, as taxas de juros estão de volta a baixas históricas, e agora poderia ser um momento ideal para implementar essas estratégias. Ter um plano, revisitar e revisar quando necessário, e depois seguir esse plano é o conselho mais importante que podemos dar no J.P. Morgan.
BRG – JPMPB – Mid-Year Outlook: Jamie –
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Investment Insights - Expect the unexpected: Setting a plan for your wealth in times of volatility.
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Jamie Lavin Buzzard, Head of Advice, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Jamie:
My name is Jamie Lavin Buzzard, and I'm Head of Advice at J.P. Morgan for the U.S. Private Bank. The first half of 2020 was, in a word, unexpected. Financial markets around the world sold off sharply. However, the S&P 500 since reaching those lows in the next 50 trading days, rallied over 40%. If you're a diversified investor, meaning you own both stocks and bonds on a one-year trailing basis, you're likely close to flat in your portfolio.
But we know the ride has not felt as uneventful. As investors, we also know to expect the unexpected, and this year has proven that now more than ever.
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As investors, we know to expect the unexpected.
Jamie:
As risk markets sold off, we've reduced our equity exposure, and we're happy with how fixed income protected to the downside.
Now, we are thoughtfully and deliberately adding back to risk assets. Perhaps more important than tactical shifts, especially during turbulent times, is to focus on what you can control.
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Focus on what you can control.
Jamie:
The goals you set forth for your family and the intention for your wealth help to inform how your assets are invested in a way that offer a higher probability of success in reaching those goals. Understanding the path and the risk that you need to take to get there is one of the most effective ways in times of volatility. We also recommend revisiting your estate plan to ensure your intentions are those of what you expect.
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Tip: Revisiting your estate plan.
Jamie:
Finally, if your goal is to gift to family members or provide an inter-family loan, interest rates are back to all-time lows, and now could be an optimal time to implement those strategies. Having a plan, revisiting and revising when necessary, and then sticking to that plan is the single most important piece of advice we can give at J.P. Morgan.
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Seu portfólio e planejamento
O que os investidores precisam realmente fazer é concentrar naquilo que podem controlar: articular uma intenção específica para seus investimentos — seja economizar para a aposentadoria ou uma casa nova, ou construir o patrimônio para as próximas gerações.
Uma das melhores formas de atingir seus objetivos financeiros individuais é por meio de um planejamento adequado e uma construção precisa do portfólio. Queremos construir portfólios juntos, que oferecem uma maior probabilidade de sucesso, mesmo em face de um novo evento devastador que pode levar à próxima liquidação de 30% em mercados de ações.
Olhe além de seus investimentos
Taxas baixas e volatilidade de mercado também oferecem oportunidades de fazer mudanças táticas e estratégicas no seu quadro geral de patrimônio, para progredir com suas metas. Agora é um ótimo momento para rever seus empréstimos e liquidez para ver se estão otimizados para o atual ambiente de taxas e rever seu planejamento de sucessão, não apenas para garantir que tenha os documentos essenciais, mas para ver se há doações ou mudanças que possa fazer para acelerar seus planos de doação (seja para filhos ou entes queridos, ou para instituições de caridade, se o seu portfólio tiver se recuperado).
Para mais informações sobre nossa visão sobre o que está por vir, incluindo os riscos e recompensas em potencial:
Baixe o relatório completo aqui
