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Navigating a new economic era: 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

A new economic era is emerging.

The post-global financial crisis world of low growth, low interest rates and low capital investment is gone. A healthier economy is taking shape, with the potential to deliver higher growth, higher rates and strong capital investment. “Fiscal activism” (increased government investment) has overtaken the “monetary activism” (aggressive monetary policy) of the 2010s.

That’s the backdrop for the publication of our 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs). These are our annual return and risk expectations for more than 200 assets and strategies over the next 10 to 15 years. The research reflects the work of more than 100 investment professionals from across J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management.

The LTCMAs form a critical foundation of our asset allocation decisions, which in turn powers the asset allocation tools we use to advise our clients’ wealth plans.

Asset allocation is the single most important decision a long-term investor will make, and it can be the difference between reaching goals and falling short.1 Even experienced investors may expect future market performance to mirror past returns. The result, all too often: missed opportunities and misaligned portfolio allocations.

Simply put: It is critical to take a thoughtful forward-looking view—as our LTCMAs do—to see the opportunities and risks ahead.

As a new economic era unfolds, it is a good moment for you to step back and consider your options. If you have a wealth plan, check to see if the past year’s strong performance has shifted your strategic asset allocation. Rebalancing may be in order. If you don’t have a wealth plan, now is a good time to connect with your advisor and develop one.

Here we examine the economic and market forces driving our long-term view, our expectations of how they might impact portfolios, and how to think about stress testing your goals-based wealth plan to help support resiliency in the years ahead.

Higher growth, higher rates—and potential for solid returns

The LTCMA macroeconomic outlook sees a healthier foundation for long-term returns across public and private markets.

We anticipate stronger growth ­— in our forecast, G7 nominal growth rises for fifth year in a row, to 3.9%. Our global inflation forecast falls from 2.9% to 2.6%, although long-term structural forces still leave inflation slightly higher than before the pandemic. 

Healthier Foundations: Developed markets growth forecasts revised higher once again

G7 growth and inflation LTCMA forecasts

Bar chart showing G7 growth and inflation LTCMA forecasts
Source: 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. Data as of September 30, 2024.

We also project higher inflation volatility as governments spend more money pursuing expansive fiscal policy. With it will likely come greater volatility in short-term stock-bond correlations – a symptom of the expected tug-of-war between inflation risk and growth risk.

Higher growth typically means higher cycle-neutral cash rates,2 as monetary policy reflects the economic growth environment. Our U.S. cash return assumption rises from 2.9% to 3.1%.

Rising capital investment (by businesses and governments) and improved productivity contribute to our growth forecast. We boost our developed market forecast 20 basis points (bps) to account for increased adoption of AI, which will especially help drive U.S economic growth. Our U.S. real GDP forecast rises from 1.8% to 2.0%. We downgrade our China real growth forecast to 3.6% and upgrade India, the fastest-growing country in our LTCMAs, to 5.9%.

Our growth outlook broadly supports equity and fixed income returns. Yet markets have already priced in some of those growth expectations. In other words, along with a healthier macroeconomic foundation, this edition of our forecast begins from higher starting points. After world equities rose 17% in the first three quarters of 2024,3 valuations moved higher. Credit spreads tightened as well.

Key considerations for asset allocation and portfolio diversification

What does our long-term forecast mean for portfolios?

Not for the first time, cash has the lowest return assumption.

Despite elevated valuations and higher starting points, global equities’ expected return of 7.1% for a USD investor falls only slightly from 7.8% in last year’s LTCMAs. The cyclical starting point is less of a concern in ex-U.S. developed markets, such as the UK and the euro area, where prevailing P/E ratios remain low.

In our forecast, U.S. large cap returns decline just 30 bps, to 6.7%. That modest drop reflects our increased confidence on two important fronts:

  • High quality U.S. corporations protecting profit margins
  • Wider adoption of AI across sectors beyond technology

In our LTCMAs, we believe bonds may once again provide the portfolio benefits of income and diversification.

The LTCMAs suggest the potential for healthy returns from government bonds. Our LTCMAs project a 4.2% return from both the 10-year U.S. Treasury, and the 10-year U.K. Gilt and a 3.3% return from the benchmark sovereign bond in the euro area. However, fiscal activism suggests higher government bond volatility along with steeper yield curves. Although the duration premium (the reward for taking on interest rate risk) declines vs. 2024, we believe it remains an attractive opportunity. 

While bonds cannot protect a portfolio from inflation shocks (as investors were painfully reminded in 2022, when both stocks and bonds fell steeply), bonds can help mitigate the impact of an economic growth shock. That’s why fixed income remains a useful source of portfolio diversification.

Bonds act as diversifiers during growth shocks

Bar chart showing bonds as diversifiers during growth shocks.
Source: Bloomberg, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset; data as of October 8, 2024. Global equities: MSCI World Index; Global bonds: Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index. Returns are shown over the period when MSCI World was falling in local currency terms. Tech bubble: March 24, 2000 to September 21, 2001; global financial crisis: July 13, 2007 to March 9, 2009; eurozone sovereign debt crisis: February 18, 2011 to October 3, 2011; Covid-19: February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. 

Alternatives can diversify during inflation shocks

Bar chart showing how alternatives can diversity during inflations shocks as they did in 2022.
Source: Bloomberg, HFRI, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, NCREIF, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; data as of October 8, 2024. Global equities: MSCI World Index; global bonds: Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index. *Select alternatives is an equal-weighted aggregate comprising timber, infrastructure, transport and hedge funds. Hedge funds: HFRI Fund Weighted Composite; global infrastructure: MSCI Global Quarterly Infrastructure Asset Index (equal-weighted blend); timber: NCREIF Timberland Total Return Index. Transport returns are derived from a J.P. Morgan Asset Management Index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. 

Exploring opportunities in private markets

Although high-risk and for a more sophisticated investor, additional—and potentially compelling—sources of income as well as inflation hedging can be found in private markets and alternative assets ( e.g., private equity, real estate and infrastructure). The good news for investors: Real estate is now emerging from a period of meaningful repricing. It looks to be a potentially attractive entry point.

Our LTCMAs indicate potential opportunities in global real estate due to recent valuation adjustments. This is a direct result of valuations re-rating. For example, our U.S. core real estate return forecast rises from 7.5% to 8.1% while our European core real estate return assumption increases from 7.3% to 7.6% (in U.S. dollar terms).

Real assets broadly, beyond real estate, can also help hedge against inflation. Among the real assets we include in our LTCMAs: Infrastructure (including seaports and utilities as well as data centers), which may offer investors steady income streams. Infrastructure funds may also benefit from increased government spending and corporate capital investment, especially with higher inflation volatility.

Private equity (PE) faces a number of headwinds, including the higher cost of capital and a difficult exit environment. But we expect a better exit backdrop is starting to emerge and will continue in coming years, helping to boost our long-term return estimate, from 9.7% to 9.9%, for the cap-weighted PE. Importantly, too, both private equity and private credit markets look poised to benefit from growing investment in technology. Tech accounts for around 40% of the private credit and private equity markets.4

Finally, here’s a simple statistic to remember when you consider your allocation to public vs. private markets. About 85% of U.S. companies are privately held. In other words, if you only invest in public equity you are accessing just 15% of the total investment opportunity set. As always, careful consideration and due diligence are essential when exploring these investment options.

We can help

As year-end approaches, it is a good time to stress test your goals-based plan. We stand ready to help you create a resilient portfolio to help meet your family’s goals for years to come. 

1The research is widely accepted and well-established. Canonical works include Roger G. Ibbotson, “The Importance of Asset Allocation,” Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 66, No. 2, 2010, and Gary P. Brinson, L. Randolph Hood and Gilbert L. Beebower, “Determinants of Portfolio Performance,” Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 51, Issue 1, January 1995. 

2The cycle-neutral rate refers to the average level of a short-term interest rate that we assume prevails after an initial period of normalization.

3This reflects the MSCI ACWI index return from December 31, 2023 to September 30, 2024.

4Cambridge Associates, Jay Ritter, University of Florida, Russell, World Federation of Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

 

Now is a good time to revisit your wealth plan and focus on your portfolio’s resilience over the next 10-15 years.

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Important Information

JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only—they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Outlooks of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. “Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only—they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control. The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any assumptions, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production.

This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

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Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. Alternative investments involve greater risks than traditional investments and should not be deemed a complete investment program. They are not tax efficient and an investor should consult with his/her tax advisor prior to investing. Alternative investments have higher fees than traditional investments and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. The value of the investment may fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than they invested. Diversification and asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.

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DEPOSIT PROTECTION SCHEME 存款保障計劃   JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.是存款保障計劃的成員。本銀行接受的合資格存款受存保計劃保障,最高保障額為每名存款人HK$500,000。   JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. is a member of the Deposit Protection Scheme. Eligible deposits taken by this Bank are protected by the Scheme up to a limit of HK$500,000 per depositor.
INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED
Bank deposit products, such as checking, savings and bank lending and related services are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Not a commitment to lend. All extensions of credit are subject to credit approval.