Three forces are driving it: each one has implications. Some will support the plan you already have, while others may surface new opportunities.
We can help transform these broad macro insights into thoughtful portfolio refinements that keep your plan prepared for what may lie ahead. Explore the insights below and reach out to your J.P. Morgan Team to learn what it means for your plan.
What 2027 LTCMAs mean for your plan
What to ask your advisor now
The people behind the perspective
Grace Peters
Co-Head of Global Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Stephen Parker
Co-Head of Global Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Chris Fletcher
Global Head of Institutional Investment, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Jeffrey Eshleman
Managing Director, Head of Multi-Asset Portfolio Management, International Private Bank
Suzanne Wuebben
Managing Director, Head of Portfolio Analytics, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Dr. David Kelly
Chief Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
John Bilton
Global Head of Strategic Research, Multi-Asset Solutions, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
JPMAM LONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations.
“Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only – they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control.
The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
KEY RISKS
Diversification and asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.
Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments, including, without limitation, limited liquidity and valuation risk, and is suitable only for investors with sufficient knowledge and sophistication to evaluate the merits and risks of such investments. Alternative investments should not be deemed a complete investment program and distributions are not guaranteed. They may not be tax efficient, and an investor should consult with their tax professional prior to investing. Alternative investments often have higher fees than traditional investments and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the investment loss or gain--including risk of loss of the entire investment. For comprehensive details around unique set of risks for specific alternative investments, please consult the offering memorandum.
The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Share values can rise with strong earnings or positive market expectations, but they can also fall due to weak earnings or negative sentiment, and dividends are not guaranteed.
Investing in fixed income products (such as bonds) is subject to certain risks, including, but not limited to, interest rate, credit, inflation, call, default, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.