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2026 Mid-Year Outlook

Promise and Pressure

In our 2026 Annual Outlook, we laid out the three forces that defined a new frontier, each full of promise, each exerting pressure. Understanding what could go wrong from here—and what could go right—will define the decisions investors make next.
Our leaders check in on the forces shaping 2026 and explore how investors can position for what's next.
FRAGMENTATION
Possibilities in a fractured world
The global order is fracturing, raising the cost of critical resources, rerouting strategically important supply chains and shifting where opportunity may be found.
INFLATION
Rolling shocks are the new reality
Inflation may be undergoing a long-term shift—more volatile, more shock prone—which makes protecting your purchasing power central to portfolio design.
INTELLIGANCE
Disruption arrives before consensus
The AI boom is both a supercycle and a stress test for labor markets and business models. If AI lifts economic productivity, it could prove to be disinflationary. 
STRATEGY
Read the Mid-Year Outlook summary
Get an overview of the key themes impacting the next 6 months and the investment implications.
Source: see footnote1

KEY RISKS

Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage. The value of commodity-linked derivative instruments may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments.

Investing in emerging markets involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility compared to developed markets. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the investor’s jurisdiction can raise or lower returns. Some markets may not be as politically and economically stable, in addition to differences in taxation policies, and legal systems outside the investor’s jurisdiction may create additional risks. Investors should carefully consider these risks and consult with financial and legal advisors before investing in emerging markets.

Private investment funds (including, without limitation, hedge funds, funds of hedge funds, private equity funds, real estate funds, etc.) are subject to special risks, including risk of loss of the entire investment and is suitable only for investors with sufficient knowledge and sophistication to evaluate the merits and risks of such investments. As a reminder, private investment funds often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. These investments can be highly illiquid, and may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, and may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. Distributions are not guaranteed and may be modified at the Fund Board’s discretion. These investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees (performance fees in addition to management fees). Further, any number of conflicts of interest may exist in the context of the management and/or operation of any such fund. For comprehensive details around unique set of risks for specific alternative investments, please refer to the applicable offering memorandum.

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GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS

Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

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Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/ reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

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