Alternatives Access: Capturing the Private Infrastructure Supercycle
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Jasmine
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. My name is Jasmine Green. I'm an alternative investment specialist here in New York, and I'm thrilled to be joined this morning with two partners where we're going to dive into the private infrastructure supercycle. It continues to dominate headlines, I think for good reasons. And I have partners joined with me from Aries and Macquarie to a fabulous partners to the JP Morgan private bank, and really going to leave us with some great insights here and take you through five ideas in the next 25 minutes.
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Jasmine
So with that, I'd love to introduce my colleagues and friends. Steve Porto, co-CEO of the Aries Core Infrastructure Fund, and Harland Tierney, CEO of the Macquarie Infrastructure Income Fund. There's no better partners to spend time on this topic today. So thank you so much for your time.
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Harlan
Thank you for your partnership. Thanks. Great to be here.
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Jasmine
We're going to dive right in because we've got 24 minutes left. So with that being said, Steve, one of the things that I would love to start with is sometimes infrastructure isn't as intuitive as an investing asset class for clients. So I'd love for you to talk about what is privately held infrastructure and what are some of those initial benefits clients can think about when investing in the asset class?
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Steve
Yeah, sure. We think that there's a handful of those benefits. First being it provides access to essential assets. So these are power plants, data centers, you know, midstream natural gas pipelines that produce the goods and services that really enable our everyday lives. So private infrastructure is a way for investors to access those assets. And, you know, either one to them in a heroin standpoint or invest and own them in the equity standpoint.
00:02:29:03 - 00:02:56:04
Steve
So they also provide portfolio diversification. So these assets really have very low or no correlation to public stocks or public debt, for example. They're generally producing what we refer to as defensive cash flows. So these assets because they're so large, they're so CapEx heavy, they need to secure long term contracts with creditworthy counterparties in order to enable an investment like us into them.
00:02:56:04 - 00:03:39:12
Steve
So that provides long term, you know, relative predictability of those cash flows, at least in our investing, experience in history. They also provide, in part because of that defensive cash flow nature. We think some, protection against, market cycles, trade. So, recession resiliency, what's happening right now, today in the world and the volatility around public markets, geopolitical risk, regulatory changes, they're generally not having an impact on whether that essential service asset is producing whatever infrastructure good at serving, whether that be electrons in a power plant or, again, compute capacity for a data center.
00:03:39:14 - 00:04:10:21
Steve
It's producing that and it's selling that under a long term contract with a creditworthy counterparty. So really has low to no correlation to some of the volatility we're seeing in the market. And then in some cases that underlying contract can have an escalator actually explicitly tied to CPI and providing that direct inflation protection. So those handful of attractive attributes in our mind are what make infrastructure, particularly private infrastructure, an attractive investment for individuals.
00:04:10:24 - 00:04:29:12
Jasmine
And I think really to to sort of sum up what you've laid out for us, and we try to get cute here within the private bank, we have an acronym for it of DIY diversification, inflation protection and ultimately potential for yield. Yeah, I think what's nice about that is really what you've laid out is the case that institutions have always thought about private infrastructure.
00:04:29:20 - 00:04:38:03
Jasmine
And I think because of sort of the changes in structure and the accessibility of the asset class, you now seeing sort of private clients and families think about adding this to the portfolio?
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Steve
Yeah. I think if there's two major things happening in infrastructure right now, the first is very simple. It's growth, right? US private infrastructure deal volume was $160 billion in 2018. Last year it was close to $600 billion. So there's incredible growth happening, creating lots of unique investment opportunities. That's one. The other thing happening is the investor base. Where is that capital coming from?
00:05:02:16 - 00:05:17:23
Steve
This sector has been dominated by institutions for decades. We're starting to see investment structures, different types of funds that are opening up the sector to individual investors, whereas it's been dominated by institutions, you know, really for the last few decades.
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Jasmine
That's right. And for a lot of our clients who have sort of institutional like balance sheets, while their goals and their objectives may be different of that than an institution, there are some of these benefits you laid out that make sense for a family's, balance sheet. And so you can sort of explore that, with your JP Morgan team.
00:05:34:10 - 00:05:51:27
Jasmine
Harlan, I'd love for you to take a minute to sort of bring it to life. You and I have had a number of conversations about private infrastructure over the past few months, and you made a really great example of just my morning and sort of bringing infrastructure to life. So idea two, we're going to press forward one slide to sort of bring it to life.
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Jasmine
But walk us through this example. I think oftentimes, right. Clients have thought about infrastructure being bridges and toll roads and sort of your grandfather's infrastructure, if you will. And it's so embedded in our daily lives.
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Harlan
I think that's a great point. We've talked about it a number of times. I like to say the perimeter for infrastructure has and will continue to evolve to your point, roads, bridges, tunnels, water, gas, electric utilities. And today those utilities are invisible. So your morning routine, the three hours from the time that you wake up, from the time that you log in to your zoom at your desk, that's infrastructure at work, brushing your teeth, getting to work, getting on the subway, listening to Spotify on the train, logging into your Dunkin Donuts app to purchase coffee, arriving to work.
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Harlan
Swiping into the turnstiles. Logging into your Wall Street journal.com, talking to Siri or Claude. And now logging into zoom for the morning hoot that is the infrastructure ecosystem at work. Those are the essential assets, the essential services that are driving the backbone of our economy.
00:07:01:09 - 00:07:26:03
Jasmine
And I think to what you've laid out is one sort of the embeddedness of all of these assets, but I think two and I'll have both of you spend time on bringing infrastructure to life here shortly. But I think this idea that infrastructure has changed, we'll spend some time on digital infrastructure in particular, but I think that's something that when our clients are thinking about, maybe I'm not adding the next incremental dollar to the hyperscalers in public markets, but I still want to invest in some of these tailwinds.
00:07:26:10 - 00:07:43:27
Jasmine
I think infrastructure can be sort of a natural place to think about pursuing that part of the market. I'd love to press forward to the next idea. And, Steve, I want to spend a moment with you. Historically, what we've seen in infrastructure as the asset class and on the equity side, investing has been really bringing consistent returns to a portfolio.
00:07:43:27 - 00:07:54:19
Jasmine
And it's for all the reasons you actually started the conversation with and some of the potential benefits to portfolios. But I'd love for you to bring to life the last 20 years of investing in this asset class.
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Steve
Yeah, sure. So when we look back historically and as we've we've laid out in this slide here, you see that, across different cycles, you've seen relative consistency and uncorrelated growth in the returns for equity investors. And so that includes navigating just like other investment classes, major cycles like the GFC and Covid. And generally, as you can see here, historically back to 2004, the returns have been 9%, annualized for, for infrastructure equity.
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Steve
So we think that that's quite attractive. It can reduce volatile, potentially reduce volatility, in an investor's portfolio. And as we were talking about before, you know, diversify across, different asset classes.
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Jasmine
And I think to one of the things that's interesting about being an equity investor in infrastructure assets is you typically are a control owner of the asset and how it's operated. And you alluded to some of the, you know, potential benefits of high quality underwriting, really, strong counterparties and operators across the asset classes. Will you just spend a moment on sort of the why for diversification, the why for potential inflation, sort of buffers in the portfolio and what that looks like from a long term contract.
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Jasmine
Perspective.
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Steve
Yeah. So again, these are very large essential service assets like a power plan, a data center, a midstream pipeline. We were talking about transportation and toll roads earlier, generally that have those long term contracts in place. And so that can create, relative, lack of volatility around the cash flows that come from that creditworthy counterparty. And as owners of those assets, we can move to, to optimize their operations, right.
00:09:46:28 - 00:10:10:15
Steve
Find ways to potentially reduce expenses that all drops to the bottom line and has the potential to increase, cash flow and distributions from these assets. So, being an equity owner, you know, versus a, of course, a debt entry point, we have some levers that we can try to pull to take what we think should be a base, you know, relatively low volatility, at least historically.
00:10:10:15 - 00:10:32:18
Steve
And what we've seen in the cash flows of these assets, again, driven by that long term contract and try to enhance them further, you know, that can be again through operations. It also has the potential to take that initial contract, let's say is 20 years. And work with that counterparty and extend it and hopefully, you know, even more attractive environments for selling infrastructure, goods and services.
00:10:32:23 - 00:10:45:26
Jasmine
And maybe just spend maybe another 20 or 30s on bringing to life the difference between being a value add or an opportunistic investor in infrastructure versus what a core investor would be looking for in a particular asset.
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Steve
Yeah, so generally those are kind of terms of art within the industry. When I hear core think of an investment strategy that's focused on core investing in infrastructure, it means investing in assets versus companies and platforms. It's investing in assets that are stabilized and cash flowing today. So, the nice thing about core investing is when you're thinking about underwriting that project or that opportunity, you don't have to take a leap of faith on things that haven't happened already.
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Steve
It's already operating. It's already built. It's already, cash flowing. Contrast that with value add or opportunistic where you are taking development risk. You're taking construction risk. And generally you're doing that because you think there's a lot of value in that, right? It's it's taking your expertise or your team's expertise adding value to an asset, getting it stabilized and then trying to sell down to to core investors.
00:11:40:23 - 00:12:02:18
Jasmine
And I think a little bit of of what you're describing or alluding to also is really making the case for having both ends of the spectrum. Both equity and debt potentially in a portfolio can be interesting one, because you want it actively managed. These are not projects that I'm going to go out and invest in myself. You need strong operators to do so, but also investors who are focused on the fundamentals.
00:12:02:18 - 00:12:29:07
Jasmine
So I think that's super helpful, sort of bringing the historical context to life for us. Harlan, I want to transition to you to sort of bring the debt piece of this to life. Historically, we actually have had to bifurcate in between sort of private credit and infrastructure equity investing. If we wanted to have a flavor of both in a portfolio today, you sort of see new structures, new opportunities in the space to really bring both into a single investment opportunity.
00:12:29:07 - 00:12:40:11
Jasmine
So I'd love for you to bring to life what are the actual benefits, and maybe also highlight some of the risk across the spectrum that clients should be thinking about before jumping into an opportunity like this?
00:12:40:14 - 00:13:07:05
Harlan
Sure, I think some of the points that Steve was making are really clear, and I think there's a lot of parallels between the equity and the credit opportunity and infrastructure, largely because of the inefficiency, the magnitude and the supply and the demand imbalance between the capital formation and the opportunity set. Sure, we like to say infrastructure credit today is where middle market direct lending was 17 years ago.
00:13:07:05 - 00:13:39:16
Harlan
Coming out of the GFC. So whether you're looking at infrastructure credit in parallel to other pockets of asset based finance or pockets of corporate credit or middle market direct lending, the infrastructure space does provide those idiosyncratic opportunities, and it's an opportunity to really lean into some of the things that we, as infrastructure credit providers, can, can control from your perspective, you're controlling the board management, capital allocation and management compensation.
00:13:39:18 - 00:14:06:12
Harlan
What we can control through these bilateral originated transactions are covenants and credit agreements. And so through that structure and through that complexity premium and going directly to the borrowers, we're able to put in a embedded early warning, monitoring and surveillance system that, in addition to the asset level protections, gives us the ability to both step in when there is a problem.
00:14:06:14 - 00:14:37:22
Harlan
And to the extent that we see opportunity to extract additional economics, we have those controls that information and that corporate governance. And you can see it in the historical credit quality infrastructure credit, if you look back over a long period of time, has a low probability of default and a high recovery. And so as a result of that, the p times q economics imply infrastructure debt has a low loss rate relative to other pockets of credit.
00:14:37:24 - 00:15:07:12
Harlan
And in today's environment where you're seeing large pockets of various industries going through significant amounts of volatility, whether it's software or insurance brokerage, and the potential risks within those sectors that represent significant amounts of the overall asset class. Infrastructure is immune from a lot of those risks, and it provides a shelter from the storm for many of those investors and a very stable, idiosyncratic opportunity set.
00:15:07:15 - 00:15:35:06
Jasmine
And you started here. But for clients who may be joining us for the first time and sort of diving into the asset class for the first time, I'd love for you to sort of define covenants first and foremost, and then also sort of what does it look like for someone to be on the debt side, looking for financing for an infrastructure project, bring to life what that may be, because Steve alluded to sort of the space that he has spent most recent time in on the core side, right.
00:15:35:08 - 00:15:46:04
Jasmine
Assets that are already up running and and sort of producing earnings right on the debt side, what's the financing potentially look like and who's looking for that?
00:15:46:06 - 00:16:06:28
Harlan
So these are often projects or assets or operating companies that are either owned by sponsors or operators or strategic. Think of it as the mortgage layer to the development of a house. And the bank is coming to you to best understand who's going to be building that house. What does that house look like when it's completed? What is the paydown schedule of that mortgage look like?
00:16:06:28 - 00:16:42:01
Harlan
Or that infrastructure credit loan look like over time? And what are the potential risks around changes in the neighborhood, your neighbors, the environment, and all of the potential first, second and third order risks around that core nucleus of the development of the project. In the infrastructure ecosystem, the covenants are the rules of engagement. These are financial reporting information that you have to provide and certain tests that you have to meet along the way to make sure that the financial health of who you're lending the money to is similar to what it was when you originally underwrote the loan.
00:16:42:08 - 00:17:05:22
Harlan
Think of it as the equivalent of Fico score. If you're borrowing money from the bank to lease a car from your credit card company. So those are the types of protections and the controls and infrastructure debt. They're highly bespoke and that's why we're able to extract the type of credit spread plus illiquidity premium that we're earning in these infrastructure credit loans.
00:17:05:22 - 00:17:08:24
Harlan
And that is an attractive risk adjusted return.
00:17:08:26 - 00:17:33:05
Jasmine
Both of you have done a really great job of sort of bringing to life what is the asset class. I think what I'd love to do is spend time on the sectors across the entire, asset class at large if we press forward. And really this is a two for one on idea five, because I want both of you to spend time in maybe a favorite sector or a favorite asset class, but again, sort of today it's not just utilities in power.
00:17:33:11 - 00:17:57:22
Jasmine
It's social infrastructure. It's digital infrastructure, it's renewables, transportation and the likes. It sort of spans. Again, to your to your earliest point, the backbone of our society and our economy. And so one Steve, I'd love to start with you. You earlier you and I were chatting and I think you one gave a couple of great examples, but maybe bring to life a favorite of yours.
00:17:57:25 - 00:18:00:09
Jasmine
Maybe even something you've invested in recently.
00:18:00:11 - 00:18:25:01
Steve
Yeah. So I think we're all aware of and hearing about the digital boom and the build out of data centers. There's around 30GW of data centers today. By 2030, projections are we could go to around 100GW. That itself creates a massive investment opportunity in the digital ecosystem, data centers, fiber, and so on. What we find also attractive is, you know, what are the knock on effects of that?
00:18:25:01 - 00:18:46:11
Steve
We're of course, seeing that in power demand. And we think that that needs to be an all of the above strategy. You know, wind, solar battery storage, natural gas fired power generation, other technologies because the demand is so strong. And then, of course, as more natural gas fired power plants get built, you need to build out more natural gas infrastructure.
00:18:46:11 - 00:19:11:00
Steve
So one of the interesting investments we've made recently is in an interstate natural gas pipeline. We own 40% of the equity interest in that, or we invest in 40% of the equity interest in it. And that's structured as a triple net lease. So we get monthly lease payments from our counterparty, who in this situation is investment grade rated, one of the biggest operators of natural gas infrastructure in the US.
00:19:11:03 - 00:19:38:26
Steve
That's a great profile for us, right? All the benefits of infrastructure we've been talking about. And as on the equity side, what we think is quite unique is as the equity owner of an asset like that, again, very large assets that are depreciating, you can create a structure where the dividends that are paid out to the individual ultimate investors and whatever fund or investment vehicle we're talking about have the potential to be classified as return of capital.
00:19:38:29 - 00:20:01:22
Steve
And so I live in New York. I'm paying New York State income tax and federal income tax. If I was earning, you know, let's just say a net ten yield on an investment and an infrastructure equity investment strategy. There's the potential that I don't have to pay federal or state income taxes on those dividends, which creates a pretax equivalent yield of over 20% for somebody like me.
00:20:01:22 - 00:20:15:10
Steve
So that I think you have all the benefits we've been talking about. There's actual steel in the ground, concrete in the ground to invest in, and it's tangible. It's got long term contracts. And they also have this potential benefit around tax advantages.
00:20:15:10 - 00:20:35:26
Jasmine
Sure. And I think to you sort of sharing that example one, I think everyone sort of perks up when they hear about an asset class where there are potential tax advantages. People get a little nervous when you think about sort of a depreciating asset over time. But I think what's helpful here is we all sort of understand the dynamics of depreciation over sort of a natural life of an infrastructure asset.
00:20:36:01 - 00:20:52:12
Jasmine
And so to your point, when you can build a structure where those two things combined can be advantageous for an investor, it makes a lot of sense. Yeah. Harlan, you have a favorite of mine. You and I have talked about this. You gave me some stats just on sort of the backlog or the weights around some of these infrastructure assets today.
00:20:52:15 - 00:21:02:24
Jasmine
And I'm surprised sort of power generation and I wasn't more of a topic amongst us today over the last 20 minutes. But take us through, the most recent example that you and I chatted about just on the turbine front.
00:21:02:27 - 00:21:25:09
Harlan
Sure. So similar to Steve, I think I have almost 25 years of investing across the power and utilities landscape. I think we probably even worked on a few transactions back when you were at GE. Nobody thinks about the picks and the shovels or the significant logistics and supply chain challenges of building a power plant or building a data center.
00:21:25:11 - 00:21:49:01
Harlan
And similar to my wife and I, who built a home during Covid, it took us about 61 weeks to get a subzero refrigerator. It's about five times the average length of ordering a basic good for your kitchen, and the number one source of scarcity today, when building a power plant or data center is the combined cycle gas turbine engine itself.
00:21:49:04 - 00:22:19:09
Harlan
Generally speaking, there's only three manufacturers Siemens, GE and Mitsubishi, and it's the three of us where to walk into any one of those headquarters in Japan, in North America or in Germany today, we'd probably be told to come back in sometime in the early 2030s. And so we've been really excited about taking a more agnostic view to both power demand and the development of GPU or GPU as a service for these artificial intelligence or large language learning model opportunities.
00:22:19:12 - 00:22:45:19
Harlan
We helped a power developer in Texas finance the equipment, and we're doing so at very attractive double digit type rates, where the assets themselves are irreplaceable. They have an incredibly attractive loan to value. And if we needed to step in or foreclose on the collateral, we can easily move those turbines from Texas to California or into Pennsylvania markets.
00:22:45:21 - 00:23:09:29
Harlan
And we love investing behind and lending into that type of a supply demand dynamic, where there's a significant amount of demand and price and elasticity. And we've talked about it before. Most people don't get excited about electricity, but during Winter Storm Hernando or thinking about all the power challenges that you've had over this winter here, particularly in New York, which is a real challenge.
00:23:10:01 - 00:23:39:02
Harlan
Historically, electricity only grew at about 40 basis points. It was a certain percentage of GDP, and as a result of all the coal fired power plant retirements, nuclear power plant retirements, cloud based computing fiber and 5G electricity growth is now about 4.5%. That's a ten fold increase in electricity. And when we think about what we like to invest in, we're always trying to find the inefficiency and thus the opportunity in the market.
00:23:39:04 - 00:23:58:02
Harlan
And when we can earn these low double digit type yields with very significant amounts of hard assets or collateral behind it, it generally presents a really unique opportunity. So that gas turbine and the analogy to that subzero refrigerator are very similar, very tangible and relatable to anyone who's ever built the project.
00:23:58:05 - 00:24:20:15
Jasmine
I'm thrilled that you and your wife finally got that subzero refrigerator, and I hope you're getting a lot of great use out of it. You both managed to make infrastructure very exciting. Which was my only goal for today. So thank you both for the examples. But more importantly, thank you both for your time. For those of you who joined us, for the episode this morning, I'm thrilled that we got to spend some time with you all.
00:24:20:15 - 00:24:28:16
Jasmine
Hopefully, we said something that resonates. We will be back next month with another episode of Alternatives Access. But Steve Harlan, thank you guys. So much.
00:24:28:21 - 00:24:31:08
Steve
Thank you. Thank you, JP Morgan.
00:24:31:10 - 00:24:42:25
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Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. My name is Jasmine Green. I'm an alternative investment specialist here in New York, and I'm thrilled to be joined this morning with two partners, where we're going to dive into the Prime Infrastructure super cycle. It continues to dominate headlines, I think, for good reasons. And I have partners joined with me from Ares and Macquarie two of fabulous partners to the JPMorgan Private Bank. And really going to leave us with some great insights. We're going to take you through five ideas in the next 25 minutes.
So with that, I'd love to introduce my colleagues and friends. Steve Porto, co-CEO of the Ares Core infrastructure fund, and Harlan Cherniak, CEO of the Macquarie infrastructure income fund. There's no better partners to spend time on this topic today, so thank you so much for your time.
Thank you for your partnership.
Thanks. Great to be here.
We're going to dive right in because we've got 24 minutes left. So with that being said, Steve, one of the things that I would love to start with is sometimes infrastructure isn't as intuitive as an investing asset class for clients. So I'd love for you to talk about what is privately held infrastructure and what are some of those initial benefits clients can think about when investing in the asset class.
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Text: Steve Porto
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Yeah, sure. We think that there's a handful of those benefits. First being it provides access to central assets. So these are power plants, data centers, midstream natural gas pipelines that produce the goods and services that really enable our everyday life. So
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Text: What is private infrastructure and why is it important? Illustrative Private Infrastructure Sectors and Assets. Energy & Energy Transition, Digital Infrastructure, Transportation and Mobility. A graphic on the left shows a venn diagram with three circles.
(SPEECH)
private infrastructure is a way for investors to access those assets and either lend to them, in Harlan's standpoint, or invest and own them in the equity standpoint. So they also provide portfolio diversification.
So these assets really have very low or no correlation to public stocks or public debt, for example. They're generally producing what we refer to as defensive cash flows. So these assets because they're so large, they're so CapEx heavy, they need to secure long-term contracts with creditworthy counterparties in order to enable an investment like us into them. So that provides long-term relative predictability of those cash flows, at least in our investing experience and history.
They also provide in part because of that defensive cash flow nature. We think some protection against market cycles, some recession resiliency. What's happening right now, today in the world and the volatility around public markets, geopolitical risk, regulatory changes, they're generally not having an impact on whether that essential service asset is producing whatever infrastructure it's serving, whether that be electrons in a power plant or again, compute capacity for a data center. It's producing that and it's selling that under a long-term contract with a creditworthy counterparty.
So really has low to no correlation to some of the volatility we're seeing on the market. And then in some cases that underlying contract can have an escalator actually explicitly tied to CPI and providing that direct inflation protection. So those handful of attractive attributes in our mind are what make infrastructure, particularly private infrastructure and attractive investment for individuals.
And I think really to sum up what you've laid out for us. And we try to get cute here within the private bank, we have an acronym for it of DIY, diversification, inflation protection and ultimately potential for yield. I think what's nice about that is really what you've laid out is the case that institutions have always thought about private infrastructure. And I think because of the changes in structure and the accessibility of the asset class, you're now seeing private clients and families think about adding this to the portfolio.
Yeah, I think if there's two major things happening in infrastructure right now. The first is very simple. It's growth. US private infrastructure deal volume was $160 billion in 2018. Last year it was close to $600 billion. So there's incredible growth happening, creating lots of unique investment opportunities. That's one.
The other thing happening is the investor base, where is that capital coming from. This sector has been dominated by institutions for decades. We're starting to see investment structures, different types of funds that are opening up the sector to individual investors, whereas it's been dominated by institutions, really for the last few decades.
That's right. And for a lot of our clients who have institutional like balance sheets, while their goals and their objectives may be different of that than an institution, there are some of these benefits you laid out that make sense for a family's balance sheet. And so you can explore that with your JPMorgan team.
Harlan, I'd love for you to take a minute to bring it to life. You and I have had a number of conversations about private infrastructure over the past few months, and you made a really great example of just my morning and bringing infrastructure to life. So idea 2, we're going to press forward one slide to bring it to life. But walk us through this example.
I think oftentimes, clients have thought about infrastructure being bridges and toll roads and your grandfather's infrastructure, if you will, and it's so embedded in our daily lives.
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Text: Harlan Cherniak. Head of Infrastructure and Investment Grade Credit, Macquarie Infrastructure Income Opportunities
(SPEECH)
I think that's a great point. We've talked about it a number of times. I like to say the perimeter for infrastructure has and will continue to evolve.
Sure.
Your
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A graphic notes morning activities. Text: Providing liquidity in an illiquid market. 6:30, Brushing your teeth, powered by water and energy systems. 7:15, Getting to work, powered by transportation networks. 7:45, coffee shop, powered by energy and logistics. 8:00, arrive at work, powered by critical facilities. 8:30, Morning video call, powered by digital infrastructure. The infrastructure powering your morning: Energy & Utilities, Transportation, Digital Infrastructure
(SPEECH)
point. Roads, bridges, tunnels, water, gas, electric utilities. And today, those utilities are invisible. So your morning routine, the three hours from the time that you wake up, from the time that you log into your Zoom at your desk, that's infrastructure at work, brushing your teeth, getting to work, getting on the subway, listening to Spotify on the train, logging into your Dunkin' Donuts app to purchase coffee, arriving to work, swiping into the turnstiles, logging into your wallstreetjournal.com, talking to Siri or Claude, and now logging into Zoom for the morning hoot. That is the infrastructure ecosystem at work. Those are the essential assets, the essential services that are driving the backbone of our economy.
And I think too, what you've laid out is, one, the embeddedness of all of these assets. But I think too-- and I'll have both of you spend time on bringing infrastructure to life here shortly. But I think this idea that infrastructure has changed. We'll spend some time on digital infrastructure in particular, but I think that's something that when our clients are thinking about, maybe I'm not adding the next incremental dollar to the hyperscalers in public markets, but I still want to invest in some of these tailwinds. I think infrastructure can be a natural place to think about pursuing that part of the market.
I'd
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A line graph appears that shows growth increasing steadily for Private Infrastructure, Public Equity and Public Infrastructure from 2004 to 2025. Text: Historically consistent, uncorrelated growth in private infrastructure equity.
(SPEECH)
love to press forward to the next idea. And Steve, I want to spend a moment with you. Historically, what we've seen in infrastructure as the asset class and on the equity side investing has been really bringing consistent returns to a portfolio. And it's for all the reasons you actually started the conversation with and some of the potential benefits to portfolios. But I'd love for you to bring to life the last 20 years of investing in this asset class.
Yeah, sure. So when we look back historically and as we've laid out in this slide here, you see that across different cycles, you've seen relative consistency and uncorrelated growth in the returns for equity investors. And so that includes navigating just like other investment classes major cycles like the GFC and COVID. And generally, as you can see here, historically back to 2004, the returns have been 9% annualized for infrastructure equities.
So we think that that's quite attractive. It can potentially reduce volatility in investor's portfolio. And as we were talking about before, diversify across different asset classes.
And I think too, one of the things that's interesting about being an equity investor in infrastructure assets is you typically are a control owner of the asset and how it's operated. And you alluded to some of the potential benefits of high-quality underwriting, really strong counterparties and operators across the asset classes. Will you just spend a moment on the why for diversification, the why for potential inflation buffers in the portfolio, and what that looks like from a long-term contract perspective.
Yeah. So again, these are very large essential service assets like a power plant, a data center, a midstream pipeline. We were talking about transportation and toll roads earlier generally that have those long-term contracts in place. And so that can create a relative lack of volatility around the cash flows that come from that creditworthy counterparty. And as owners of those assets, we can move to optimize their operations, find ways to potentially reduce expenses that all drops to the bottom line, and has the potential to increase cash flow and distributions from these assets.
So being an equity owner, versus, of course, a debt entry point, we have some levers that we can try to pull to take what we think should be a base relative low volatility, at least historically. And what we've seen in the cash flows of these assets, again, driven by that long-term contract and try to enhance them further. That can be again through operations. It also has the potential to take that initial contract. Let's say it's 20 years and work with that counterparty and extend it and hopefully, even more attractive environments for selling infrastructure, goods and services.
And maybe just spend maybe another 20 or 30 seconds on bringing to life the difference between being a value add or an opportunistic investor in infrastructure versus what a core investor would be looking for in a particular asset.
Yes. So generally those are terms of art within the industry. When I hear core, think of an investment strategy that's focused on core investing in infrastructure, it means investing in assets versus companies and platforms. It's investing in assets that are stabilized and cash flowing today. So the nice thing about core investing is when you're thinking about underwriting that project or that opportunity, you don't have to take a leap of faith on things that haven't happened already.
It's already operating. It's already built. It's already cash flowing. Contrast that with value add or opportunistic, where you are taking development risk, you're taking construction risk. And generally, you're doing that because you think there's a lot of value in that. It's taking your expertise or your team's expertise, adding value to an asset, getting it stabilized and then trying to sell down to core investors.
And I think a little bit of what you're describing or alluding to also is really making the case for having both ends of the spectrum, both equity and debt potentially in a portfolio can be interesting one, because you want it actively managed. These are not projects that I'm going to go out and invest in myself. You need strong operators to do so, but also investors who are focused on the fundamentals. So I think that's super helpful, bringing the historical context to life for us.
Harlan, I want to transition to you to bring the debt piece of this to life. Historically, we actually have had to bifurcate in between private credit and infrastructure equity investing. If we wanted to have a flavor of both in a portfolio. Today, you see new structures, new opportunities in the space to really bring both into a single investment opportunity. So I'd love for you to bring to life what are the actual benefits, and maybe also highlight some of the risk across the spectrum that clients should be thinking about before jumping into an opportunity like this.
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Text: Infrastructure debt can provide lenders with additional risk mitigation. Essential Asset Financing, Tangible Collateral, Contracted Revenue Profiles, Robust Lender Agreements. A bar graph at bottom left shows Credit Quality, Default and Recovery Rate for Infrastructure Debt, Direct Lending, Leveraged Loans, High Yield Bonds. A graph at bottom right shows the Historical expected loss rate.
(SPEECH)
Sure. I think some of the points that Steve was making were really clear, and I think there's a lot of parallels between the equity and the credit opportunity and infrastructure, largely because of the inefficiency, the magnitude and the supply and the demand imbalance between the capital formation and the opportunity set.
Sure.
We like to say infrastructure credit today is where middle market direct lending was 17 years ago coming out of the GFC. So whether you're looking at infrastructure credit and parallel to other pockets of asset-based finance or pockets of corporate credit or middle market direct lending, the infrastructure space does provide those idiosyncratic opportunities, and it's an opportunity to really lean into some of the things that we as infrastructure credit providers, can control.
Sure.
From your perspective, you're controlling the board management, capital allocation and management compensation. What we can control through these bilateral originated transactions are covenants and credit agreements. And so through that structure and through that complexity premium and going directly to the borrowers, we're able to put in an embedded early warning, monitoring and surveillance system that, in addition to the asset level protections, gives us the ability to both step in when there is a problem. And to the extent that we see opportunity to extract additional economics, we have those controls, that information and that corporate governance.
And you can see it in the historical credit quality. Infrastructure credit, if you look back over a long period of time, has a low probability of default and a high recovery. And so as a result of that, the p times q economics imply infrastructure debt has a low loss rate relative to other pockets of credit. And in today's environment, where you're seeing large pockets of various industries going through significant amounts of volatility, whether it's software or insurance brokerage, and the potential risks within those sectors that represent significant amounts of the overall asset class, infrastructure is immune from a lot of those risks, and it provides a shelter from the storm for many of those investors and a very stable, idiosyncratic opportunity set.
And you started here. But for clients who may be joining us for the first time and diving into the asset class for the first time, I'd love for you to define covenants first and foremost, and then also what does it look like for someone to be on the debt side, looking for financing for an infrastructure project. Bring to life what that may be. Because Steve alluded to the space that he has spent most recent time in on the core side, assets that are already up and running and producing earnings. On the debt side, what's the financing potentially look like and who's looking for that?
So these are often projects or assets or operating companies that are either owned by sponsors or operators or strategics. Think of it as the mortgage layer to the development of a house.
Sure.
And the bank is coming to you to best understand who's going to be building that house. What does that house look like when it's completed? What is the paydown schedule of that mortgage look like or that infrastructure credit loan look like over time? And what are the potential risks around changes in the neighborhood, your neighbors, the environment, and all of the potential first, second, and third order risks around that core nucleus of the development of a project in the infrastructure ecosystem.
The covenants are the rules of engagement. These are financial reporting information that you have to provide and certain tests that you have to meet along the way to make sure that the financial health of who you're lending the money to is similar to what it was when you originally underwrote the loan. Think of it as the equivalent of FICO score if you're borrowing money from the bank to lease a car from your credit card company.
So those are the types of protections and the controls. In infrastructure debt, they're highly bespoke. And that's why we're able to extract the type of credit spread plus illiquidity premium that we're earning in these infrastructure credit loans. And that is an attractive risk adjusted return.
Both of you have done a really great job of bringing to life what is the asset class. I think what I'd love to do is spend time on the sectors across the entire asset class at large. If we press forward and really this is a two for one on idea 5, because I want both of you to spend time in maybe a favorite sector, a favorite asset class. But again, today, it's not just utilities and power. It's social infrastructure. It's digital infrastructure, it's renewables, transportation and the likes. It spans, again, to your earliest points, the backbone of our society and our economy.
And
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Text: Private infrastructure represents a compelling opportunity set with material tailwinds today. Digitalization, Modernizing assets in the move to the digital economy. Decarbonization, Facilitating the transition & evolving energy mix. Demographics, Meeting the needs of communities & driving growth. Deglobalization, Resharing supply chains & domestic infra resilience. Transportation, Digital Infrastructure, Renewables, Utilities and Power, Social Infrastructure, Economic Infrastructure
(SPEECH)
so one, Steve, I'd love to start with you. Earlier you and I were chatting and I think you one gave a couple of great examples, but maybe bring to life a favorite of yours, maybe even something you've invested in recently.
Yeah. So I think we're all aware of and hearing about the digital boom and the build out of data centers, there's around 30 gigawatts of data centers today. By 2030, projections are we could go to around 100 gigawatts. That itself creates a massive investment opportunity in the digital ecosystem data centers, fiber and so on. What we find also attractive is what are the knock-on effects of that. We're of course, seeing that in power demand. And we think that needs to be in all of the above strategy. Wind, solar battery storage, natural gas fired power generation, other technologies because the demand is so strong.
And then, of course, as more natural gas fired power plants get built, you need to build out more natural gas infrastructure. So one of the interesting investments we've made recently is in an interstate natural gas pipeline. We own 40% of the equity interest in that, or we invest in 40% of the equity interest in it. And that's structured as a triple net lease. So we get monthly lease payments from our counterparty, who in this situation is investment grade rated, one of the biggest operators of natural gas infrastructure in the US.
That's a great profile for us. All the benefits of infrastructure we've been talking about. And as on the equity side, what we think is quite unique is as the equity owner of an asset like that, again, very large assets that are depreciating, you can create a structure where the dividends that are paid out to the individual ultimate investors in whatever fund or investment vehicle we're talking about have the potential to be classified as return of capital.
And so I live in New York. I'm paying New York State income tax and federal income tax. If I was earning, let's just, say a net 10 yield on an investment, on an infrastructure equity investment strategy, there's the potential that I don't have to pay federal or state income taxes on those dividends, which creates a pre-tax equivalent yield of over 20% for somebody like me. So that I think you have all the benefits we've been talking about. There's actual steel in the ground, concrete in the ground to invest in, and it's tangible. It's got long-term contracts. And then you also have this potential benefit around tax advantages.
Sure. And I think too you sharing that example one, I think everyone perks up when they hear about an asset class where there are potential tax advantages. People get a little nervous when you think about a depreciating asset over time. But I think what's helpful here is we all understand the dynamics of depreciation over a natural life of an infrastructure asset. And so to your point, when you can build a structure where those two things combined can be advantageous for an investor, it makes a lot of sense.
Yeah.
Harlan have a favorite of mine. You and I have talked about this. You gave me some stats just on the backlog or the weights around some of these infrastructure assets today, and I'm surprised power generation and AI wasn't more of a topic amongst us today over the last 20 minutes. But take us through the most recent example that you and I chatted about just on the turbine front.
Sure. So similar to Steve, I think I have almost 25 years of investing across the power and utilities landscape. I think we probably even worked on a few transactions back when you were at GE. Nobody thinks about the picks and the shovels or the significant logistics and supply chain challenges of building a power plant or building a data center. And similar to my wife and who built a home during COVID, it took us about 61 weeks to get a subzero refrigerator. It's about five times the average length of ordering a basic good for your Kitchen. And the number one source of scarcity today when building a power plant or data center, is the combined cycle gas turbine engine itself.
Generally speaking, there's only three manufacturers Siemens, GE, and Mitsubishi. And if the three of us were to walk into any one of those headquarters in Japan and North America or in Germany today, we'd probably be told to come back in sometime in the early 2030s. And so we've been really excited about taking a more agnostic view to both power demand and the development of GPU or GPU as a service for these artificial intelligence or large language learning model opportunities.
We helped a power developer in Texas finance the equipment, and we're doing so at very attractive double-digit type rates, where the assets themselves are irreplaceable. They have an incredibly attractive loan to value. And if we needed to step in or foreclose on the collateral, we can easily move those turbines from Texas to California or into Pennsylvania markets. And we love investing behind and lending into that type of a supply demand dynamic, where there's a significant amount of demand and price inelasticity.
And we've talked about it before, most people don't get excited about electricity, but during winter storm Hernando or thinking about all the power challenges that you've had over this winter here, particularly in New York, which was a real challenge. Historically, electricity only grew at about 40 basis points. It was a certain percentage of GDP. And as a result of all the coal-fired power plant retirements, nuclear power plant retirements, cloud-based computing, fiber and 5G, electricity growth is now about 4.5%. That's a 10-fold increase in electricity.
And when we think about what we like to invest in, we're always trying to find the inefficiency and thus the opportunity on the market. And when we can earn these low double-digit type yields with very significant amounts of hard assets or collateral behind it, it generally presents a really unique opportunity. So that gas turbine and the analogy to that subzero refrigerator are very similar and very tangible and relatable to anyone who's ever built a project.
And I'm thrilled that you and your wife finally got that subzero refrigerator. And I hope you're getting a lot of great use out of it. You both manage to make infrastructure very exciting, which was my only goal for today. So thank you both for the examples. But more importantly, thank you both for your time.
For those of you who joined us for the episode this morning, I'm thrilled that we got to spend some time with you all. Hopefully, we said something that resonates. We will be back next month with another episode of alternatives access. But Steve, Harlan, thank you guys so much.
Thank you.
And thank you, JPMorgan.
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As a reminder, hedge funds (or funds of hedge funds), private equity funds, real estate funds often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. These investments can be highly illiquid, and are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, and may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. These investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees. Further, any number of conflicts of interest may exist in the context of the management and/or operation of any such fund. For complete information, please refer to the applicable offering memorandum. Securities are made available through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Member FINRA, and SIPC, and its broker-dealer affiliates. Hedge funds (or funds of hedge funds) often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. These investments can be highly illiquid, and are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, and may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. These investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees. Further, any number of conflicts of interest may exist in the context of the management and/or operation of any such fund. For complete information, please refer to the applicable offering memorandum. Liquid alternative funds are registered funds that seek to accomplish the fund's objectives through non-traditional investments and trading strategies. They differ significantly from both hedge funds and traditional mutual funds because they can be redeemed on any business day, they are said to be "liquid." Such funds do not follow the typical buy and hold strategy of a traditional mutual fund and generally hold more nontraditional investments and use more complex trading strategies than a traditional mutual fund, which may make an investment in a liquid alternative fund riskier. Non-traditional investments may include, but not limited to private equity, derivatives, commodities, real estate, distressed debt and hedge funds. While investments in private equity funds provide potential for attractive returns, access to opportunities not available in the public markets and diversification, they also present significant risks including illiquidity, long-term time horizons, loss of capital and significant execution and operating risks that are not typically present in public equity markets. Private equity funds typically have a 10-15 year term and will begin to monetize investments after holding them for 4-5 years.
Hedge funds (or funds of hedge funds) often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss; can be highly illiquid; are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors; may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information; are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees. Further, any number of conflicts of interest may exist in the context of the management and/or operation of any hedge fund. Economy, currency, tax and market conditions, including market liquidity, may increase the risks of these investments and may impact performance of the funds. The views and strategies described herein may not be suitable for all investors, and more complete information is available which discusses risks, liquidity, and other matters of interest. Hedge funds (or funds of hedge funds) often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss; can be highly illiquid; are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors; may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information; are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees. Further, any number of conflicts of interest may exist in the context of the management and/or operation of any hedge fund Any investment associated with leverage will include additional risks such as implied volatility, exposure to rising interest rates (borrowing costs) and margin calls, which may occur if the underlying investment declines below its minimum lending values. Leverage will have the effect of magnifying losses or gains. Please note that lines of credit are extended at the discretion of J.P. Morgan, and J.P. Morgan has no commitment to extend a line of credit or make loans available under the line of credit. Margin calls may include sale of the asset serving as collateral if the collateral value declines below the amount required to secure the line of credit. In exercising its remedies, J.P. Morgan will not be required to marshal assets or act in accordance with any fiduciary duty it otherwise might have.
KEY RISKS. This material is for information purposes only and may inform you of certain products and services offered by private banking businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (*JPM"). Products and services described, as well as associated fees, charges and interest rates, are subject to change in accordance with the applicable account agreements and may differ among geographic locations. Not all products and services are offered at all locations. If you are a person with a disability and need additional support accessing this material, please contact your J.P. Morgan team or email us at accessibility.support@jpmorgan.com for assistance. Please read all Important Information. GENERAL RISKS & CONSIDERATIONS. Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.
NON-RELIANCE. Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/ reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events. Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.
YOUR INVESTMENTS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST. Conflicts of interest will arise whenever JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates (together, "J.P. Morgan") have an actual or perceived economic or other incentive in its management of our clients' portfolios to act in a way that benefits J.P. Morgan. Conflicts will result, for example (to the extent the following activities are permitted in your account): (1) when J.P. Morgan invests in an investment product, such as a mutual fund, structured product, separately managed account or hedge fund issued or managed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or an affiliate, such as J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.; (2) when a J.P. Morgan entity obtains services, including trade execution and trade clearing, from an affiliate; (3) when J.P. Morgan receives payment as a result of purchasing an investment product for a client's account; or (4) when J.P. Morgan receives payment for providing services (including shareholder servicing, recordkeeping or custody) with respect to investment products purchased for a client's portfolio. Other conflicts will result because of relationships that J.P. Morgan has with other clients or when J.P. Morgan acts for its own account. Investment strategies are selected from both J.P. Morgan and third-party asset managers and are subject to a review process by our manager research teams. From this pool of strategies, our portfolio construction teams select those strategies we believe fit our asset allocation goals and forward-looking views in order to meet the portfolio's investment objective. As a general matter, we prefer J.P. Morgan managed strategies. We expect the proportion of J.P. Morgan managed strategies will be high (in fact, up to 100 percent) in strategies such as, for example, cash and high-quality fixed income, subject to applicable law and any account-specific considerations.
YOUR INVESTMENTS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST. While our internally managed strategies generally align well with our forward-looking views, and we are familiar with the investment processes as well as the risk and compliance philosophy of the firm, it is important to note that J.P. Morgan receives more overall fees when internally managed strategies are included. We offer the option of choosing to exclude J.P. Morgan managed strategies (other than cash and liquidity products) in certain portfolios. The Six Circles Funds are U.S.-registered mutual funds managed by J.P. Morgan and sub-advised by third parties. Although considered internally managed strategies, JPMC does not retain a fee for fund management or other fund services. LEGAL ENTITY, BRAND & REGULATORY INFORMATION. In the United States, bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively "JPMCB") offer investment products, which may include bank managed investment accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made a25:00/25918 Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated com ies under th common control of JPM. Products not available in all states.
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