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Investment Strategy

How to assess the potential impact of AI on your portfolio

Artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked immense excitement. Its most optimistic forecasters suggest it could help crack some of the toughest global problems. Although companies are just beginning to tap AI’s potential, here's a sign of what may lie ahead: AI has helped spark a new corporate research and development cycle that could spin out remarkable innovations, depending on how well its managed.

AI could widen the gap between market advancers and decliners, in Big Tech and across industries. As investors, we're actively assessing which are likely to be the most promising players. How are companies responding to the opportunities (in ways that may allow us to reap rewards)? How are they weighing the risks and mitigating them? The answers could translate to the bottom line—separating those companies and funds well-positioned to win in the market from those more likely to court controversies that affect returns.

Sorting through the mix, separating hype from real potential, sustainability is one of many lenses we’re using—to analyze AI’s possible impacts on the environment, the workforce and human rights and how those may affect bottom lines.

Here are some key areas we’re watching closely, examples where we think AI has the greatest potential and what to look for to help you make thoughtful, prudent investments.

AI could be a catalyst for the energy transition, but it is also resource intensive

An International Energy Agency publication deemed AI and energy “the new power couple” because AI can enable more efficient, flexible and safe energy systems.1 It may also play a crucial role helping companies limit their use of scarce resources. (AI-enabled agricultural technology has already begun to conserve resources like water—and to boost yields, as well.)2

  • What’s happening?

AI-enabled innovations can help energy systems by producing data insights that spur action. “Smart” grids and meters that generate, digest and consume data can predict maintenance needs, forecast supply and demand and detect potential outages before they happen, lifting efficiency.3

Yet AI taxes resources. AI models are energy intensive—moreso as they grow in complexity. A query using generative AI (which produces novel, human-like output in text, image and video) consumes three to thirty times more energy than a Google search.4 And that usage might triple this decade.

Then there’s water: The supercomputers (and other infrastructure) powering AI need millions of gallons for cooling.5 That costs companies, and challenges their sustainability efforts. Risk is growing in this area. Yet we see leading companies taking concrete steps toward improvement.

  • Cases we like

AI is proving a boon in renewable energy. So far, one electricity provider is using AI to predict wind and solar power output up to 36 hours ahead, increasing that power’s market value.6 But not every company is investing equally in these innovations. We like the actions of one leading U.S. utility company that is spending more than half its capital expenditure on renewable energy sources. It’s positioning for rising demand for clean energy, and may benefit from AI’s ability to boost renewable energy assets’ value.7

It's not just utilities. Some big tech companies are committing to fuel their power-hungry data centers with renewable energy. One AI-involved software company we like has secured far more renewable energy over a decade than its peers.8

Our due diligence is also uncovering resource-conscious leaders among the semiconductor manufacturers whose microchips run AI applications. The industry’s latest generation of chips use 1/ 25th as much  energy.9 Another leading chipmaker in a U.S. state with water scarcity is building a water recycling plant to supply more than half of its factory’s water.10

  • Watch this when investing

We’re bullish on funds that invest in companies across sectors leaning into AI-enabled innovations that make their operations  more energy efficient, and that rely on wind, solar and other cleaner energy sources.

We can help you keep an eye on water and energy consumption issues—homing in on the investments with active commitments to meet AI power demands with efficient, cleaner energy sources, and with track records of following through on this.

If AI hits workers, will companies be ready?

How might AI change the labor market? Shifts may include surging demand for highly skilled talent, which must be attracted, retained and developed. And if the technology lifts productivity dramatically, companies may need to invest in retraining and upskilling their workforces.11 No one knows exactly how it will play out, but here’s our thinking right now.

  • What’s happening?

So far, there is little evidence AI has reduced the number of jobs but the risk remains substantial: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that 27% of jobs are at these highest risk of being replaced by automation.12 Setting aside the many non-investment issues this raises, companies will surely be challenged. Then there’s the matter of integrating AI at work—which may well demand more IT and tech talent than companies now employ. Finding them could be tough: Only 13% of employers polled in a 2021 survey said they could “hire and keep the tech talent they need most.”13

  • Cases we like

We like companies and funds that understand good workforce management. That might mean they’re retraining, or more broadly creating cultures of continuous learning and development. In one particular example, a number of companies are joining together to create an AI Workforce Consortium focused on “upskilling and reskilling roles most likely to be impacted by AI … enabling workers to find and access relevant training programs and connecting business to skilled and job-ready workers.”14 This group has established goals aligned to skill development and training programs to educate 95 million workers over the next 10 years. Actions like this make sense—they’re designed to fortify the local talent pipeline.

  • Watch this when investing

How companies are handling changes within their workforces is a long-term endeavor. We favor investors with deep understanding of human capital and labor dynamics, practiced at assessing which companies are balancing recruiting, retaining and retooling. Those that do should be well positioned, if and when AI shifts their business models.

Are companies governing AI responsibly?

The quality of corporate governance can be a powerful determinant of investor returns. AI could have significant implications—in two ways: It may strengthen the governance process, and yet AI itself needs strong governance.

  • What’s happening?

Innovations driven by AI could make corporate governance more transparent and executive decision-making more accountable. AI introduces potential risks—to privacy, to security, or spreading dangerous misinformation and bias. Yet well governed AI can offer the chance to better engage customers, employees, shareholders, suppliers, local communities, regulators—all stakeholders—and to strengthen compliance and risk management. Keeping a human presence in the loop is something we find important to balanced success.

  • Cases we like

We like the practice of one leading company involved in AI: Early on, it published AI development principles to guide its rollout of innovations to its products and services. Another  leading company in AI development established an AI-focused ethics office to monitor and ensure its products were being used responsibly. These corporate actions signaled to investors a commitment to operate with appropriate checks and balances, and to maintain trust with its customers, employees and other stakeholders.

These good governance practices mitigate the risk of litigation and help establish (or reinforce) that the companies are brands you can trust. And trust can pay dividends for investors.

  • Watch this when investing

It is still early days. We’re watching a number of AI risks, from undermining privacy and data security to contributing to misinformation and bias. Intentionally or not, consumers armed with AI can quickly disseminate disinformation.15 In this context, shareholders are asking companies to discuss their guardrails. The focus is on disclosure, and measuring AI systems’ transparency and fairness.

Investors with experience identifying market opportunities and sizing the associated risks should be well positioned to navigate companies changing because of AI. Your J.P. Morgan team can help.

1Vida Rozite, Jack Miller and Sunjin Oh, “Why AI and energy are the new power couple,” International Energy Agency, November 2, 2023.

2“Precision Agriculture: Benefits and Challenges for Technology Adoption and Use,” U.S. Government Accountability Office, January 31, 2024.

3Sebastian Moss, “Engie to use Google Cloud AI to predict wind power,” Data Center Dynamics, June 1, 2022. Using AI for predicative maintenance can reduce the number of grid outages by up to 30%. “Artificial Intelligence (AI): Driving the energy transition”, E.ON, 2024.

4Vivian Lee, Ross LaFleur, Khushboo Goel, et al., “The Impact of GenAI on Electricity: How GenAI is Fueling the Data Center Boom in the U.S.,” Boston Consulting Group, September 13, 2023.

5Pengfei Li, Jianyi Yang, Mohammad A. Islam, et al., “Making AI Less “Thirsty: Uncovering and Addressing the Secret Water Footprint of AI Models,”arXiv.org, April 6, 2023.

6The value of the power generated for consumers is worth 20% more.  Sebastian Moss, “Engie to use Google Cloud AI to predict wind power,” Data Center Dynamics, June1, 2022.

7Electric utilities are expecting double-digit growth in clean energy demand over the next five years. Jeremy Tonet, Richard Sunderland, Robin Shillock, et al., “Renewables Development Day Takeaways Bring to Life Scale, Experience & Technology Advantages That Capitalize on Surging Electrification Trends”, JP Morgan Markets, March 18, 2024 and Carly Davenport, John Miller, and Jaskaran Jaiyaa, “Future of Utilities Capex: Why Capex Matters and How Utilities Allocate Spend,” Goldman Sachs Research, January 8, 2024.

8This leader secured 20 gigawatts of solar and wind power since 2010. “Top corporate off-takers of renewable energy power purchase agreements, 2010–2022,” International Energy Agency, July 4, 2023.

9“NVIDIA Blackwell Platform Arrives to Power a New Era of Computing”, NVIDIA Newsroom, March 18, 2024.

10Justin Winter, “More Chips, More Water,” Impax Asset Management, January 23, 2024.

11For an extended consideration of AI’s labor force implications: Michael Albrecht and Stephanie Aliaga, “The transformative power of generative AI: Supercharged productivity or mass joblessness?” J.P. Morgan Asset Management, August 25, 2023.

12“Using AI in the workplace: Opportunities, risks and policy responses,” OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers No. 11, March 15, 2024.

13Will Poindexter and Jessica Craig, “Survey: What Attracts Top Tech Talent?” Harvard Business Review, October 19, 2022. “Computer occupations as a group are projected to grow about three times as fast as the average between 2019 and 2029, at 11.5%,” according to Alan Zilberman and Lindsey Ice, “Why computer occupations are behind strong STEM employment growth in the 2019–29 decade,” Beyond the Numbers, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2021.

14IBM, “Leading Companies Launch Consortium to Address AI's Impact on the Technology Workforce”, April 4, 2024.

15According to a survey “1,490 experts across academia, business, government, the international community and civil society” (source: direct quote from report) by the World Economic Forum; “Misinformation and disinformation is the number one most severe global risk anticipated over the next two years and the number five global risk over the next 10 years.” “The Global Risks Report 2024,” World Economic Forum, January 10, 2024.
Companies and fund managers are moving quickly to tap into AI’s potential, but are they also properly weighing the risks? Here’s how we’re making our assessments.

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JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively "JPMCB") offer investment products, which may include bank-managed accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC ("JPMS"), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states. Please read the Legal Disclaimer in conjunction with these pages.

 

INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

Equal Housing Lender Bank deposit products, such as checking, savings and bank lending and related services are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Not a commitment to lend. All extensions of credit are subject to credit approval.