Eye on the Market | J.P. Morgan Private Bank

Eye on the Market: coronavirus (COVID-19) research

Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, has compiled his extensive research on coronavirus. The compilation includes infection, mortality, economic and market research to date, and will be continuously updated.

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Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

The global supply chain mess will require increased vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the…

Michael Cembalest

Sep 27, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Your Fall 2021 syllabus

Greetings students. We look forward to seeing you back on campus. Your Fall 2021 syllabus is attached. Syllabus update: Biology…

Michael Cembalest

Sep 07, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Spaccine hesitancy

Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity…

Michael Cembalest

Aug 18, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Red Med Redemption

Red Med Redemption: A visual depiction of politics, ideology, vaccine resistance and the Delta variant. Other topics: US…

Michael Cembalest

Jul 26, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Thy Brother's Keeper

Topics: Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and a unified theory of…

Michael Cembalest

Jul 13, 2021

Economy & Markets

Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional…

Michael Cembalest

Jun 28, 2021

Economy & Markets

An investor's look at the China recovery

Topics: An investor’s look at China’s recovery, the Sinopharm vaccine and the importance of scientific methods

Michael Cembalest

Jun 08, 2021

Economy & Markets

Inflation. Duh!

This Eye on the Market addresses questions we’re receiving on markets, inflation, rates and capital gains taxes, and concludes…

Michael Cembalest

May 24, 2021

Economy & Markets

Eleventh Annual Energy Paper

We examine when and how renewable energy transitions might result in permanent reductions in CO₂ emissions.

Michael Cembalest

May 04, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Absolute Value

Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it…

Michael Cembalest

Apr 15, 2021

Economy & Markets

The Smalligarchy

How the narrowest political margins in decades could deliver one of the biggest taxation and spending increases in the post-war…

Michael Cembalest

Apr 02, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t…it’s amazing to see…

Michael Cembalest

Mar 15, 2021

Economy & Markets

The Agony & The Ecstasy

We look at 40 years of stock performance and explore the risks and rewards of a concentrated stock position.

Michael Cembalest

Mar 12, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Very short stories

Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable…

Michael Cembalest

Feb 18, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Hydraulic Spacking

In this month’s note, we look at the SPAC capital raising boom and Biden’s early stage energy policies.

Michael Cembalest

Feb 08, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Fear of Flying

Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

Michael Cembalest

Jan 19, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Eye on the Market Outlook 2021

Our views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’…

Michael Cembalest

Jan 01, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B…

Michael Cembalest

Dec 15, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Armageddonists, Revisited

The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with…

Michael Cembalest

Nov 19, 2020

Economy & Markets

Quiet Flows the Don

For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds.

Michael Cembalest

Nov 09, 2020

Economy & Markets

Special EOTM Election update: Pennsylvania, absentee…

During the President’s speech on Thursday, he made it clear that the next step in the process will be a wave of GOP litigation…

Michael Cembalest

Nov 06, 2020

Economy & Markets

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

As the election outcome increasingly looks like a split decision (President Biden with a GOP Senate), we’re preparing for…

Michael Cembalest

Nov 04, 2020

Economy & Markets

The United States vs Google, and Europe vs COVID

We’ve all been focused on the election recently, but there are other topics worth covering since they will affect markets…

Michael Cembalest

Oct 23, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Buckle Up!

Pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions; Equity market impacts.

Michael Cembalest

Oct 13, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

Michael Cembalest

Oct 01, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Needle and the Damage Done

The long-term fiscal and monetary cost of the US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tec…

Michael Cembalest

Sep 08, 2020

Economy & Markets

The Bounce

On the recovery in the economy and markets; latest updates on second waves, vaccine timetables and the Sweden experiment.

Michael Cembalest

Jun 08, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

This week, we look at the US as it prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world.

Michael Cembalest

May 11, 2020

Economy & Markets

State’s Rights

The latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

Michael Cembalest

May 04, 2020

Economy & Markets

Are we there yet?

Lockdown relaxation and economic reawakening…are we there yet? Also, a review of the latest regional antibody test results and…

Michael Cembalest

Apr 27, 2020

Economy & Markets

COVID and culture

Collectivism vs Individualism and its impact on COVID infection rates; when US states might reopen; a history of US equity bottoms

Michael Cembalest

Apr 20, 2020

Economy & Markets

The equity rally and the prospects for herd immunity

The recent equity rally and antibody tests that could signal the onset of higher levels of immunity.

Michael Cembalest

Apr 13, 2020

Economy & Markets

Man vs. nature, part II

Virus trends and head-fakes, convalescent plasma and U.S. vs. China lockdowns.

Michael Cembalest

Apr 06, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Man vs nature: What the government can and cannot fix

There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can’t.

Michael Cembalest

Mar 30, 2020

Economy & Markets

The virus, John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to…

How quickly countries rebound from crisis and economic hardship.

Michael Cembalest

Mar 20, 2020

Economy & Markets

The Pandemic Gap

The critical distinction between the “infected” and the “sick”, mortality rates, and important context around the Spanish Flu.

Michael Cembalest

Mar 09, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Berning Man

An update on the Democratic Primary, and more on COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

Michael Cembalest

Mar 04, 2020

Economy & Markets

COVID-19 Update

Severity, consequences and implications for investors.

Michael Cembalest

Feb 26, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Millions and Trillions

US megacap stocks and high market concentration, Democratic Healthcare plan costs, and a deep dive on the student loan crisis.

Michael Cembalest

Feb 06, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Rotten Tomatoes

Consensus reactions to the China-US deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

Michael Cembalest

Jan 17, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Eye on the Market Outlook 2020

Our market and investment views on the year ahead as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.

Michael Cembalest

Jan 01, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Warren Peace

A close look at the Progressive Agenda, China’s deteriorating welcome mat in DC and US Tech IPOs.

Oct 07, 2019

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Needle and the Damage Done

The long-term fiscal and monetary cost of the US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tec…

Michael Cembalest

Sep 08, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Rotten Tomatoes

Consensus reactions to the China-US deal are very skeptical, but may be missing the broader point.

Michael Cembalest

Jan 17, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Thy Brother's Keeper

Topics: Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and a unified theory of…

Michael Cembalest

Jul 13, 2021

Economy & Markets

Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional…

Michael Cembalest

Jun 28, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Absolute Value

Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it…

Michael Cembalest

Apr 15, 2021

Economy & Markets

The Smalligarchy

How the narrowest political margins in decades could deliver one of the biggest taxation and spending increases in the post-war…

Michael Cembalest

Apr 02, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t…it’s amazing to see…

Michael Cembalest

Mar 15, 2021

Economy & Markets

The Agony & The Ecstasy

We look at 40 years of stock performance and explore the risks and rewards of a concentrated stock position.

Michael Cembalest

Mar 12, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Very short stories

Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable…

Michael Cembalest

Feb 18, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Hydraulic Spacking

In this month’s note, we look at the SPAC capital raising boom and Biden’s early stage energy policies.

Michael Cembalest

Feb 08, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Fear of Flying

Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

Michael Cembalest

Jan 19, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Eye on the Market Outlook 2021

Our views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’…

Michael Cembalest

Jan 01, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Armageddonists, Revisited

The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with…

Michael Cembalest

Nov 19, 2020

Economy & Markets

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

As the election outcome increasingly looks like a split decision (President Biden with a GOP Senate), we’re preparing for…

Michael Cembalest

Nov 04, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Buckle Up!

Pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions; Equity market impacts.

Michael Cembalest

Oct 13, 2020

Economy & Markets

The United States vs Google, and Europe vs COVID

We’ve all been focused on the election recently, but there are other topics worth covering since they will affect markets…

Michael Cembalest

Oct 23, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Needle and the Damage Done

The long-term fiscal and monetary cost of the US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tec…

Michael Cembalest

Sep 08, 2020

Economy & Markets

COVID: stimulus and valuations

Stimulus impact on credit and equity valuations; history of market bottoms.

Michael Cembalest

Sep 19, 2020

Economy & Markets

The Bounce

On the recovery in the economy and markets; latest updates on second waves, vaccine timetables and the Sweden experiment.

Michael Cembalest

Jun 08, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

This week, we look at the US as it prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world.

Michael Cembalest

May 11, 2020

Economy & Markets

State’s Rights

The latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

Michael Cembalest

May 04, 2020

Economy & Markets

The equity rally and the prospects for herd immunity

The recent equity rally and antibody tests that could signal the onset of higher levels of immunity.

Michael Cembalest

Apr 13, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Man vs nature: What the government can and cannot fix

There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can’t.

Michael Cembalest

Mar 30, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Eye on the Market Outlook 2020

Our market and investment views on the year ahead as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear.

Michael Cembalest

Jan 01, 2020

Economy & Markets

Private Equity Forecast: Plenty of Dry Powder

The large amount of committed and unspent private equity capital, i.e. “dry power”, and its implications for investors.

Michael Cembalest

Nov 19, 2018

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Very short stories

Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable…

Michael Cembalest

Feb 18, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Fear of Flying

Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

Michael Cembalest

Jan 19, 2021

Economy & Markets

Joint Session of Congress on Jan 6: rules of engagement

The Jan 6 Joint Session is shaping up to be a very contentious meeting as Congress sorts out competing slates of electors and…

Michael Cembalest

Dec 30, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B…

Michael Cembalest

Dec 15, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Armageddonists, Revisited

The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with…

Michael Cembalest

Nov 19, 2020

Economy & Markets

Quiet Flows the Don

For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds.

Michael Cembalest

Nov 09, 2020

Economy & Markets

Special EOTM Election update: Pennsylvania, absentee…

During the President’s speech on Thursday, he made it clear that the next step in the process will be a wave of GOP litigation…

Michael Cembalest

Nov 06, 2020

Economy & Markets

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

As the election outcome increasingly looks like a split decision (President Biden with a GOP Senate), we’re preparing for…

Michael Cembalest

Nov 04, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Buckle Up!

Pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions; Equity market impacts.

Michael Cembalest

Oct 13, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

Michael Cembalest

Oct 01, 2020

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

The Needle and the Damage Done

The long-term fiscal and monetary cost of the US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tec…

Michael Cembalest

Sep 08, 2020

Economy & Markets

Eleventh Annual Energy Paper

We examine when and how renewable energy transitions might result in permanent reductions in CO₂ emissions.

Michael Cembalest

May 04, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Very short stories

Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable…

Michael Cembalest

Feb 18, 2021

Contains audio.

Economy & Markets

Hydraulic Spacking

In this month’s note, we look at the SPAC capital raising boom and Biden’s early stage energy policies.

Michael Cembalest

Feb 08, 2021

Economy & Markets

Pascal's Wager

Our annual energy paper, focusing on the energy transitions needed to meet climate goals.

Michael Cembalest

Apr 22, 2018

Economy & Markets

Many Rivers to Cross

Our annual energy paper, focusing on the many rivers to cross on the road to decarbonization.

Michael Cembalest

Apr 16, 2017

Economy & Markets

The ARC and the Covenants 4.0

Our latest analysis of the fiscal stress facing US states.

Michael Cembalest

Oct 09, 2018

Economy & Markets

The ARC and the Covenants 3.0

The total indebtedness of US cities and counties, and the difficult choices that will be required to meet all future obligations.

Michael Cembalest

Sep 21, 2017

Economy & Markets

State’s Rights

The latest news on US infection trends and reopening plans, Remdesivir trial results and whether US fiscal stimulus is “enough”.

Michael Cembalest

May 04, 2020

About the Eye on the Market

Michael Cembalest is the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at JP Morgan Asset Management. Since 2005, Michael has been the author of the Eye on the Market in 2005, which covers a wide range of topics across markets, investments, economics, politics, energy, municipal finance and more.

Featured Research

Eye on the Market: coronavirus (COVID-19) research

Dude, Where’s My Stuff?

Your Fall 2021 syllabus

Spaccine hesitancy

Red Med Redemption

Thy Brother's Keeper

Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

An investor's look at the China recovery

Inflation. Duh!

Eleventh Annual Energy Paper

Absolute Value

The Smalligarchy

Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

The Agony & The Ecstasy

Very short stories

Hydraulic Spacking

Fear of Flying

Eye on the Market Outlook 2021

Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

The Armageddonists, Revisited

Quiet Flows the Don

Special EOTM Election update: Pennsylvania, absentee…

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

The United States vs Google, and Europe vs COVID

Buckle Up!

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The Needle and the Damage Done

The Bounce

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

State’s Rights

Are we there yet?

COVID and culture

The equity rally and the prospects for herd immunity

Man vs. nature, part II

Man vs nature: What the government can and cannot fix

The virus, John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to…

The Pandemic Gap

Berning Man

COVID-19 Update

Millions and Trillions

Rotten Tomatoes

Eye on the Market Outlook 2020

Warren Peace

The Needle and the Damage Done

Rotten Tomatoes

Thy Brother's Keeper

Food Fight: 2021 private equity update

Absolute Value

The Smalligarchy

Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

The Agony & The Ecstasy

Very short stories

Hydraulic Spacking

Fear of Flying

Eye on the Market Outlook 2021

The Armageddonists, Revisited

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

Buckle Up!

The United States vs Google, and Europe vs COVID

The Needle and the Damage Done

COVID: stimulus and valuations

The Bounce

Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen

State’s Rights

The equity rally and the prospects for herd immunity

Man vs nature: What the government can and cannot fix

Eye on the Market Outlook 2020

Private Equity Forecast: Plenty of Dry Powder

Very short stories

Fear of Flying

Joint Session of Congress on Jan 6: rules of engagement

Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

The Armageddonists, Revisited

Quiet Flows the Don

Special EOTM Election update: Pennsylvania, absentee…

Court Marshall: Election aftermath and implications

Buckle Up!

Election 2020 - Praying for Time

The Needle and the Damage Done