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Investment Strategy

Retest your investments to reflect the new return outlook

Research indicates that asset allocation is the primary driver of portfolio risk and long-term returns.1 We feel allocation is the single most important decision a long-term investor will make, and it can be the difference between reaching objectives and falling short. In a world that is changing in significant ways, this is an especially important moment to step back, consider your options, and establish an appropriate long-term asset allocation policy. 

Start by looking forward

Too often, we see institutional investors take a backward-looking view by expecting the future performance of investments to mirror what they’ve seen in the recent past. That can lead to missed opportunities, allocations that don’t reflect prevailing macroeconomic, political and fiscal forces, and over concentrations in certain asset classes and themes.

Our approach is different: We focus on establishing a forward-looking view to provide us with insights on the opportunities and risks ahead. Each year, more than 60 investment professionals from across J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management pool their quantitative and qualitative insights in a deep, proprietary analytical process. The results are 10- to 15-year expected return and volatility assumptions for more than 200 assets and strategies.

The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions (LTCMAs), now in their 29th year, fuel our decision making, power our approach for multi-asset portfolios and underpin our proprietary strategic asset allocation toolkit. For 2025, the central theme is “Higher starting point, healthier foundations.”

Higher starting points

World equities rallied 17% in the first three quarters of 2024.2 This has lead to elevated valuations for public market equities, and some alternative assets, compared to 2023—what we’re calling “higher starting points.” Tech stocks such as the Magnificent Seven continued to broadly outperform, leading to higher concentrations. Meanwhile, credit spreads have tightened, leaving investors with less cushion for weakness. And we see more macroeconomic volatility, creating greater dispersion in geographic outcomes.

It’s important to consider this when making investing decisions, but we do not believe that asset prices are dangerously elevated overall.

Healthier Foundations

We see the global economy entering a period of stronger growth compared to the 2010s. In fact, in 2025, our long-term assumptions for nominal growth for the G7 nations rises for the fifth consecutive year. We call this state “healthier foundations,” as it is broadly supportive of equity valuations over the long term in spite of their increased valuations. The 2025 LTCMAs also incorporate greater capex spending—we project that capital expenditures as a percentage of GDP will their highest level since the “dot-com bubble” burst in 2000.

Other components that inform this view: Our U.S. inflation projection decreases for the second year in a row, creating a better “growth mix.” We also expect accelerating adoption of AI to promote greater productivity, and we again raise our forecasts for earnings growth to reflect rising profit our assumptions. However, the healthier foundations are international in scope. Lower valuations outside the US and a weaker USD support stronger international returns, especially in Japan.

One eye on the long term, another on your goals

We’ve worked with sophisticated long-term investors, endowments and family offices around the world for decades, and we know that accounting for changes in the world economy, markets and industries is a critical part of asset allocation. An unpredictable future may make it difficult to achieve investment objectives, leading to erosion of financial health and asset base.

As we look forward over the next 10-15 years, we expect the 60/40 allocation3 to remain the foundation of long-term portfolios. However, our assumptions call for an expected long-term return of 6.4% per year, which would likely fall short of the typical return objectives of endowments and family offices4. This raises the question: Are your portfolios on track to meet your goals? 

Our LTCMAs facilitate portfolio testing by providing specific estimates for potential long-term returns, volatilities and correlations across a broad spectrum of asset classes. We feed these data points into our proprietary asset allocation tools as we work to define optimal portfolios based on long-term objectives and key constraints, such as liquidity needs, structural diversification and specific liabilities.

Over many years, we have invested significant resources in developing these tools to help our clients make informed long-term investment decisions. Running our tools often uncovers gaps and can highlight different potential opportunities. Analysis can be the basis for education, consultation and discussion, and often leads to adjustments in asset allocation, including the addition of new asset classes and strategies (and an updated investment policy statement IPS).

One key tool—the Morgan Asset Projection System (MAPS)—lets us generate forward-looking portfolio values that account for starting value, expected inflows or outflows and taxes (if applicable). MAPS helps us understand whether a portfolio is likely to maintain its purchasing power after distributions and lets clients set expectations for their assets’ long-term growth. The chart below shows the additional ways we test portfolios.

Our portfolio diagnostic tools

Chart showing the factors to consider for an investment portfolio.

Investing for the environment ahead

Our work in creating the LTCMAs helps us identify key long-term investment themes. This in turn helps us consider how best to implement these ideas in portfolios. The table below shows a high-level summary of some of the most important themes of the 2025 LTCMAs that we intend to focus on with clients, and how they can be applied across asset classes:

Chart showing the themes to consider for 2025 and how they correlate with asset classes.

We can help

Markets now offer a promising and diverse opportunity set. Despite strong performance in 2024, our expected return assumptions remain elevated. We think that real assets and alternative investments have important roles to play because of their potential to deliver diversified, inflation-protected returns. Whatever your return targets or risk tolerance, we believe now is the time to review your asset allocation (or establish one) to align your portfolios with your long-term objectives. We have the tools, technology, research and know-how to help set you up for success. Reach out your J.P. Morgan team.

1The research is widely accepted and well-established. Canonical works include Roger G. Ibbotson, “The Importance of Asset Allocation,” Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 66, No. 2, 2010, and Gary P. Brinson, L. Randolph Hood and Gilbert L. Beebower, “Determinants of Portfolio Performance,” Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 51, Issue 1, January 1995.

2This reflects the MSCI ACWI index return from December 31, 2023 to September 30, 2024.

3Representing a 60% equity / 40% fixed income allocation

42023 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments. 2024 J.P. Morgan Global Family Office Report

The backdrop for investing has changed notably in the last few years, creating new opportunities across asset classes.

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Important Information

INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ONLY

For illustrative purposes only. Estimates, assumptions and comparisons are as of the dates stated in the material. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.

JPMAM Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only—they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Outlooks of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. “Expected” or “alpha” return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example, changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class are conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only—they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager’s ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control. The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any assumptions, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production.

This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

RISKS OF INVESTING IN CURRENCY HEDGING STRATEGIES

Liquidity: Unwinds may be provided at JPMorgan discretion. However, the proceeds of an unwind may fall short of the expected payout at maturity given the same underlying value.

Returns: The proceeds may depend on many variables including, but not limited to, the level and implied volatility of the underlying asset. The return may be positive, negative, or zero.

Holding period: The derivative position may be held to maturity or closed out prior to maturity. Held to maturity or closed out prior to maturity, the net return to investors may be positive, negative or zero.

Legal & tax: This material is distributed with the understanding that it is not rendering accounting, legal or tax advice. Consult your legal or tax advisor concerning such matters.

Performance: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Options related disclosures: If the information contained herein regards options related strategies, such information is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporation’s Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, please contact your J.P. Morgan Representative or visit the OCC’s website at https://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp

Counterparty credit: All payments are subject to JPM counterparty credit

Foreign Exchange: Holders of foreign securities can be subject to foreign exchange risk, exchange-rate risk and currency risk, as exchange rates fluctuate between an investment’s foreign currency and the investment holder’s domestic currency. Conversely, it is possible to benefit from favorable foreign exchange fluctuations. ​

Key Risks

Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. Alternative investments involve greater risks than traditional investments and should not be deemed a complete investment program. They are not tax efficient and an investor should consult with his/her tax advisor prior to investing. Alternative investments have higher fees than traditional investments and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. The value of the investment may fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than they invested. Diversification and asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.

Private investments are subject to special risks. Individuals must meet specific suitability standards before investing. This information does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. As a reminder, hedge funds (or funds of hedge funds), private equity funds, real estate funds often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. These investments can be highly illiquid, and are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, and may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information. These investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds; and often charge high fees. Further, any number of conflicts of interest may exist in the context of the management and/or operation of any such fund. For complete information, please refer to the applicable offering memorandum.  

This material is for informational purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by private banking businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). Products and services described, as well as associated fees, charges and interest rates, are subject to change in accordance with the applicable account agreements and may differ among geographic locations. Not all products and services are offered at all locations. If you are a person with a disability and need additional support accessing this material, please contact your J.P. Morgan team or email us at accessibility.support@jpmorgan.com for assistance. Please read all Important Information.

General Risks & Considerations

Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g., equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

Non-Reliance

Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/ reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

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Conflicts of interest will arise whenever JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates (together, “J.P. Morgan”) have an actual or perceived economic or other incentive in its management of our clients’ portfolios to act in a way that benefits J.P. Morgan. Conflicts will result, for example (to the extent the following activities are permitted in your account): (1) when J.P. Morgan invests in an investment product, such as a mutual fund, structured product, separately managed account or hedge fund issued or managed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or an affiliate, such as J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.; (2) when a J.P. Morgan entity obtains services, including trade execution and trade clearing, from an affiliate; (3) when J.P. Morgan receives payment as a result of purchasing an investment product for a client’s account; or (4) when J.P. Morgan receives payment for providing services (including shareholder servicing, recordkeeping or custody) with respect to investment products purchased for a client’s portfolio. Other conflicts will result because of relationships that J.P. Morgan has with other clients or when J.P. Morgan acts for its own account.

Investment strategies are selected from both J.P. Morgan and third-party asset managers and are subject to a review process by our manager research teams. From this pool of strategies, our portfolio construction teams select those strategies we believe fit our asset allocation goals and forward-looking views in order to meet the portfolio’s investment objective.

As a general matter, we prefer J.P. Morgan managed strategies. We expect the proportion of J.P. Morgan managed strategies will be high (in fact, up to 100 percent) in strategies such as, for example, cash and high-quality fixed income, subject to applicable law and any account-specific considerations.

While our internally managed strategies generally align well with our forward-looking views, and we are familiar with the investment processes as well as the risk and compliance philosophy of the firm, it is important to note that J.P. Morgan receives more overall fees when internally managed strategies are included. We offer the option of choosing to exclude J.P. Morgan managed strategies (other than cash and liquidity products) in certain portfolios.

The Six Circles Funds are U.S.-registered mutual funds managed by J.P. Morgan and sub-advised by third parties. Although considered internally managed strategies, JPMC does not retain a fee for fund management or other fund services.

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