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Past, present, future: Here’s where we stand

Ninety-five percent of S&P 500 companies have reported their third-quarter earnings, including the largest, Nvidia, which reported last week. The earnings figures themselves were again impressive, with earnings per share more than doubling over the last year. The market reaction was more mixed though as the company offered only in-line guidance for next quarter. The technology sector at large continues to perform, accounting for 30% of the index’s earnings growth.

In fixed income, movement was fairly muted. However, the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary has been well-received by bond markets to start this week. The dollar is also slightly weaker on the news.

In commodities, gold posted its best week since the regional banking crisis and oil rose as geopolitical tensions increased. Reports last week confirmed that Ukraine fired U.S. and British supplied missiles into Russia for the first time as the conflict passed the 1,000 day mark. That, likely in combination with deficit concerns and the hopes of less regulation, pushed Bitcoin to new all-time highs. The digital asset is teetering below $100,000/coin.

This coming Thursday marks Thanksgiving in the United States. And while we’d be reticent to say volatility is behind us at the dinner table, this year has given us much to be thankful for. We released our 2025 Outlook: Building on Strength last week, and we expect another year of strong returns in the year ahead.

As we approach the end of 2024 and plan for 2025, it might make sense to revisit your wealth plan. Focusing on portfolio resilience and exploring a new world of investing opportunities can help to put your best foot forward ahead of the holiday season.

To get in the spirit, we wanted to reflect on what’s happened, what’s here and what might be coming.

What’s happened, what’s here, and what’s to come?

What’s happened? Markets have climbed the wall of worry in 2024. Investors were worried all year about recession, inflation, the U.S. elections and geopolitics. Where do we stand today? S&P 500 earnings grew +13%, multiples expanded by +11%, U.S. large-cap equities gained +25% and a global 60/40 allocation1 delivered nearly 13% returns. High yield bonds (+9%), private credit (+11%), preferreds (+8%), Bitcoin (+137%) and gold (+32%) also delivered. Cash and bonds lagged risk assets.

Portfolios are closing out 2024 in a position of strength.

What’s here? A nascent recovery in dealmaking and a massive buildout of AI infrastructure to support it.

On dealmaking, the new administration is likely to bring significant changes that could further support the recovery in dealmaking and capital market liquidity. This could include replacing U.S. government agency leadership with personnel less inclined toward heavy regulation. Under President Biden, increased regulation hindered M&A. Currently, ~40% of the S&P 500 market cap is under Department of Justice anti-trust investigations. Trump’s administration may roll back or halt the expansion of regulations, including on AI, encouraging acquisitions.

Reduced scrutiny could benefit tech companies, and a backlog of deals with increased private lending could boost transactions, benefiting Wall Street banks, private equity, credit firms and private business owners.

On AI and the infrastructure buildout, the market has already taken notice. Nvidia, the maker of chips crucial for training AI models, officially became the world’s most valuable company.

AI models are improving at a rapid rate. In 2021, large language models (LLMs, a type of AI) could answer less than 10% of competition-level math questions accurately. That share increased to 90% in 2024. The models are also becoming less expensive: The price per token for both OpenAI’s higher-performing GPT-4o mini model and Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Haiku model are 90%–98% less expensive than their predecessors.

While the hyperscalers (Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft) are set to spend $200 billion in capex this year (more than 2x what the U.S. government spends on education annually) for developing new technologies, there is still room to increase AI spending.

It’s not just the AI modelers who will likely benefit, but also the suppliers of power. Today, about 70% of the transmission lines in the grid are at least 25 years old. Despite this aging infrastructure, the grid has been able to keep up, since U.S. electricity demand has been relatively stable. However, electricity demand is set to increase from here, given the data center buildout and the power demand they necessitate.

Large data centers can require about 100 megawatt hours of electricity (that’s roughly the same power it takes to power a city of ~100,000 households). Currently, data centers account for roughly 4.5% of total U.S. energy consumption. However, some estimates suggest that data centers should drive ~250TWh of new electricity demand through 2030, leading data center power demand to increase to 8% of total U.S. power demand over the same period.

We believe the buildout for AI, including the energy needed to power the technology, is a long-term theme.

What’s to come? 2024 was the year of elections. Globally, incumbents lost power, and anti-establishment candidates and parties gained vote share. This implies a demand for change.

In the United States, President-elect Trump’s and the Republican Party’s victory sets the stage for “Trump 2.0,” which could have important implications for markets and the economy. In 2025, we think the debate over taxes and government efficiency will be top of mind.

On taxes, negotiations to extend the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will take place in the second half of 2025, with the economic impacts likely to be felt in 2026. If Congress does nothing, individual tax rates will revert to 2017 levels, the alternative minimum tax will impact many more high-income individuals, the 20% deduction for pass-through business income will end (affecting many partnerships, S corporations and sole proprietorships), and the lifetime estate, gift and generation-skipping transfer tax exemption will be cut in half (from around USD 28 million to USD 14 million for a married couple). Importantly, the 21% corporate tax rate included in the TCJA was a permanent change. 

We expect most, if not all, of the temporary provisions affecting individuals to be extended for some time. That said, given the tight margins in the House and the Senate, it may require some compromise around areas such as the state and local tax deduction cap.

On government efficiency, President-elect Trump is expected to pursue an agenda that advocates for less red tape. Part of this includes a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). We think the Elon Musk–led department, which aims to cut wasteful government spending, will have a difficult time doing so.

Why? The bottom line is that Congress controls government spending, and DOGE sits outside of Congress. The department can make all the suggestions it wants, but ultimately it’s the typical 60-vote majority in Congress that makes legislative changes. A key concern for investors in 2025 is what parts of the Trump 2.0 agenda will be emphasized and which ones will fade.

As we look toward the new year and what’s to come, your J.P. Morgan team is here to help. 

1A 60/40 allocation signifies 60% in the MSCI World Index and 40% in the Global Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index.

 

All market and economic data as of November 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

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  • Past performance is not indicative of future results. You may not invest directly in an index.
  • The prices and rates of return are indicative, as they may vary over time based on market conditions.
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We review where the markets have been and share key questions for 2025, following the launch of our 2025 Outlook.

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  • The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The index consists of 23 developed market country indexes and 24 emerging market country indices.
  • The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index or “the Agg” is a broad-based, fixed income index used by bond traders and the managers of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a benchmark to measure their relative performance.
  • Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. 

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