投資策略

我們應該擔憂滯脹重演嗎?

Oct 21, 2021

滯脹擔憂可能被過分誇大了,我們不建議全面降低多元資產投資組合的風險配置

投資者繼續面臨通脹擔憂。大宗商品價格上漲、海運堵塞以及各類板塊價格普遍承壓,都讓很多投資者擔心1970年代的滯脹情景正在重演。在本周的《市場聚焦》中,我們將會討論有關通脹的一些關鍵問題,並就價格走勢以及通脹風險的應對策略分享我們的觀點。

儘管供應鏈問題仍然佔據新聞頭條並繼續成為市場對於通脹的主要擔憂,但近期的數據表明,隨着房價、工資和通脹預期開始升溫,通脹的確可能會持續一段更長時間。「通脹只是暫時現象還是持續一段時間」已不再是爭論焦點,現在的問題更多在於,通脹升溫這一觀點是否會變得根深蒂固,從而迫使政策制定者和市場參與者作出改變。

首先,也是最為明顯的一點,在過去5個月通脹持續意外地上升,認為目前通脹問題只是「暫時現象」的觀點已經不合時宜。市場也開始反映這一看法,從基於市場的通脹預期中便可看出:在今年的大部分時間內,未來兩年的預期通脹率高於之後兩年。然而,最近市場預期發生了逆轉,兩年之後的預期通脹率高於未來兩年。發生這種轉變的同時,還出現了更持久的通脹跡象(即租金和工資上漲),與此同時經濟也快速改善。最近幾個月,驅動通脹升溫的因素已經開始擴大。汽車價格(環比上漲1.3%)仍受到半導體短缺擠壓,而交通服務(環比下跌0.5%)和酒店(環比下跌0.6%)等行業的重啟壓力實際上有所緩解。但其他更有粘性的領域,如業主等價租金(環比上漲0.4%),9月份的漲幅超過了上個周期任何時點的水平。

我們可以將此解讀為一種訊號——「暫時」通脹壓力與更持久通脹壓力之間的權衡快於預期,而部分市場已作出相應反應。以兩年期美國國債收益率為例,上周五收盤報0.36%,較一周前上漲6個基點,較一個月前上漲14個基點。自上周五以來,10年期國債收益率已下跌10個基點至1.51%。截至2022年底,按照市場價格計算的聯邦基金利率已經緩慢上升,暗示明年至少會加息一次。

非也。滯脹是指經濟停滯且伴隨着高通脹的環境,通常表現為經濟增長乏力、失業率高、物價迅速上漲。這種情景着實令人擔憂,因為央行將不得不應對通脹上升,而不是經濟增長放緩問題。然而,就目前來看,儘管價格遠高於其長期趨勢,但當前的增長形勢卻絕非停滯不前——消費者支出仍遠高於疫情前水平,勞動力市場繼續收緊。另一個顯著區別是,除了眾所周知的供應鏈和大宗商品問題,目前通脹飆升也是由於需求高於預期而造成,企業的盈利能力迅猛增長和生產力加速已可見一斑。這與上世紀70年代的情況正好相反。

儘管如此,仍有很多投資者擔心美國經濟可能會重蹈覆轍,重演「滯漲」周期。根據彭博報導,有關滯脹的新聞文章數量激增,比2019年增長了300%以上。此外,許多行業都出現了供應短缺問題,推動價格大幅上漲。例如,在橫盤趨勢持續了約25年之後,自2020年初疫情爆發以來,汽車平均價格上漲超過20%。

但是,自20世紀70年代以來,情況已經發生了很大變化。在20世紀70年代,市場遭受負面供應衝擊:石油輸出國家組織(OPEC)壟斷了石油市場,並實行禁運,導致1973年底實際石油價格大幅上漲了150%。1979年,伊朗人質危機引發了第二次石油危機,實際油價又上漲了約130%。此外,這一切都發生在美國經濟的 「石油密集度」(每單位實際GDP所消耗的石油桶數)處於高位之時。相比當時的水平,目前石油的密集度已經下降了70%以上。

美國消費者在汽油上的支出僅佔其可支配收入的3%(歐元區這一數字接近4%)。從總體來看,這個水平並不算高,但我們認為,對於最低收入人群造成的衝擊更大。

到目前為止,市場上最樂觀的油價展望為每桶130美元左右。如果我們根據美國、英國和歐元區各國央行的宏觀經濟模型計算油價上漲對實際GDP造成的衝擊,得到的衝擊值並不顯著。在美國,我們預計最糟糕的情況是,目前的高油價將驅使GDP在石油衝擊後一季度下降約35個基點。在英國和歐元區,市場似乎比美國更容易受到能源成本上升影響,我們預計GDP將在石油衝擊之後一季度下降54個基點。鑑於我們預計2022年歐元區的經濟增長或達到4.4%,這一衝擊並不會造成過度擔憂。

原則上,如果需求衝擊過大,以至於將長期通脹預期推高至遠高於聯儲局設定的2%目標水平(我們稱之為「無錨定的通脹預期」),通脹仍可能構成問題。到目前為止,更長期的通脹預期有所上升,但幅度不大。根據《專業預測者調查》(Survey of Professional Forecasters)的一項指標顯示,自2019年以來,未來10年的年度CPI通脹預期中值僅上升了約25個基點[3]。根據市場價格,5年後的5年通脹預期與聯儲局2%的目標幾乎相同。事實上,央行和業界普遍認為由於大宗商品價格暫時上漲而收緊貨幣政策的舉措是政策錯誤,因此我們有充分理由認為聯儲局和其他央行將盡力避免這種情況出現。

值得注意的是,英國央行的處境比聯儲局、歐洲央行、日本央行更為艱難,因為英國的長期通脹預期正處於過去10年的最高水平,這可能會促使英國央行轉而採取更為鷹派的做法。
回到聯儲局的觀點:通脹預期良好錨定,但這並不代表聯儲局不會退出寬鬆的貨幣政策。因通脹趨勢主要由供應鏈中斷推動,並不在貨幣政策範疇之內,因此目前對聯儲局來說,更重要的問題似乎並非近期的通脹趨勢,而是美國勞動力市場的緊張程度。聯儲局需要解決的關鍵問題是:隨着經濟持續擴張,有多少勞動力供應會回到市場?如果我們的基本預期實現,聯儲局不會因壓力過大而從明年開始加息,但勞動力供應緊缺的時間越長,聯儲局明年加息的可能性就越大。

全球能源和大宗商品價格的走勢,成為了目前市場最大的不確定性因素。雖然大宗商品價格短暫飆升的影響仍可控,但由於替代品的存在,更持久的能源價格通脹可能對其他商品和服務的需求產生較為負面的影響。儘管替代程度各有不同,但能源價格不受監管以及進口依賴程度較高的經濟體可能受到的影響最大。大宗商品價格上漲雖然往往不是唯一或最大的投入成本,但其最終可能對許多工業和消費品造成影響。哪些因素導致能源和大宗商品價格持續上漲?投資力度持續不足,原因在於更嚴格的環境和氣候相關政策,或者企業的悲觀情緒,這是因為企業對於目前價格飆升或最終需求減少而有所擔憂。如圖中所示,目前全球能源產量已經連續幾個季度低於需求。儘管許多預測人士仍樂觀地認為生產可以恢復,但如果供應沒有迎頭趕上,能源價格通脹可能持續一段更長時間。

對投資者而言,最重要的是理解目前對滯脹的擔憂可能被過分誇大了,我們不建議因擔心重蹈上世紀70年代的覆轍而全面降低多元資產投資組合的風險敞口。此外,通脹對沖工具如黃金和通脹保值債券(TIPS)對我們來說並不具有足夠吸引力,特別是從估值角度來看。

考慮到企業目前面臨的幾個不利因素,本季度審慎選股成為關鍵。我們認為,擁有強大定價能力且能夠維持/提高全年業績指引的企業將會有望取得回報。目前市場環境對於審慎選股的投資者有利,尤其是那些積極管理股票投資組合的投資者,而市場的趨勢也決定着本輪經濟周期的未來走向。

今年早些時候,我們曾經撰寫一篇文章,探討了不同通脹情況下的潛在投資解決方案。對於擔心通脹的客戶,我們建議通過增加大宗商品、黃金以及房地產等實物資產和基礎設施投資來對沖通脹風險。雖然健康的通脹率對大多數風險資產都有利,但通脹水平過高往往導致贏家數量有限——這意味着,從目前來看,對某些風險資產敞口進行對沖可能不失為一種合理的策略。

除另有註明外,所有市場和經濟數據均截至2021年10月21日,來自彭博財經和FactSet。

不保證任何或所有這些專業人士將會繼續任職於本公司,或任何該等專業服務的過往表現或成功可以作為投資組合成功的指標。

不保證本基金將會取得的業績表現相若,或本基金將可實現其投資策略或達致其投資目標。

過往表現並非未來業績的保證。

我們相信本文件載列的資訊是可靠的,但不保證其準確性或完整性。本文件表述的意見、估計、投資策略及觀點構成我們根據當前市況做出的判斷,如有更改,恕不另行通知。  

儘管我們相信第三方的資訊來源可靠,但摩根大通及其關聯公司不保證其準確性或完整性,並且不會承擔任何因為使用這些資訊而引起的直接或間接損失的責任。

通過訪問第三方網站,您可能會進入非安全的網站。摩根大通不會對任何第三方網站的一切負責丶控制丶保證或擔保。摩根大通不會負責由此而產生的任何直接或間接損失。

結構性產品涉及衍生工具。除非充分了解並願意承擔與之相關的風險,否則不要投資於結構性產品。最常見的風險包括但不限於:不利或未預料到的市場變化的風險、發行人信用質量風險、缺乏統一標準定價的風險、發生涉及任何標的參考債務的負面事件的風險、高波動性風險、流動性不足/幾乎甚至完全沒有二級市場的風險、以及利益衝突。在投資於結構性產品之前,投資者應審閱相關發行文件、發售說明書或其補充文件,以便瞭解與每只結構性產品相關的實際條款和主要風險。結構性產品的任何支付均存在發行人和/或擔保人的信用風險。投資者可能會損失其全部投資本金,也就是說,可能會產生無限的損失。上文所列風險並不完整。如需有關這種特殊產品的更全面的 風險列表,請與您的摩根大通團隊聯繫。如果您對產品所涉及的風險有任何疑問,您可以找中介澄清或者尋求獨立的專業建議。 

在討論期權及其他策略時,結果和風險完全依據所引用的假設例子;實際結果和風險會因具體情況而異。請投資者慎重考慮整體而言的期權或期權相關產品、以及本文討論的產品或策略是否適合其需要。在實際交易中,客戶的場外衍生品交易對手方是摩根大通銀行及其附屬機構。如欲索取《標準化期權的特徵和風險》小册子,請與您的摩根大通團隊聯繫。

應收件人要求及為收件人之便,本文件收件人可能已同時獲提供其他語言版本。儘管我們提供其他語言文件,但收件人已再確認有足夠能力閱讀及理解英文,且其他語言文件的使用乃出於收件人的要求以作參考之用。 若英文版本及翻譯版本有任何歧義,包括但不限於釋義、含意或詮釋、概以英文版本爲準。

風險考慮因素  

• 過往表現並非未來業績的指引。不可直接投資指數。
• 價格和回報率僅為示意性的,它們可能會隨着時間的推移根據市況發生變化。
• 所有投資策略都存在額外的風險考慮因素。
• 本文件提供的資訊並非關於買賣任何投資產品或服務的推薦或要約或邀約。
• 本文件表述的觀點可能不同於摩根大通其他領域表述的觀點。不得將本材料視為投資研究或摩根大通的投資研究報告。

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Details of the Temporary Permissions Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the United Kingdom for a limited period while seeking full authorization, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority’s website. In Spain, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Sucursal en España, with registered office at Paseo de la Castellana, 31, 28046 Madrid, Spain. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Sucursal en España is registered under number 1516 within the administrative registry of the Bank of Spain and supervised by the Spanish Securities Market Commission (CNMV). In Germany, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Frankfurt Branch, registered office at Taunustor 1 (TaunusTurm), 60310 Frankfurt, Germany, jointly supervised by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and the European Central Bank (ECB), and in certain areas also supervised by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin). In Italy, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Milan Branch, registered office at Via Cordusio 3, 20123 Milano, Italy, and regulated by Bank of Italy and the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB). In the Netherlands, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Amsterdam Branch, with registered office at World Trade Centre, Tower B, Strawinskylaan 1135, 1077 XX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Amsterdam Branch is authorized and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and jointly supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the CSSF in Luxembourg; J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Amsterdam Branch is also authorized and supervised by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and the Autoriteit Financiële Markten (AFM) in the Netherlands. Registered with the Kamer van Koophandel as a branch of J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. under registration number 71651845. In Denmark, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg, Copenhagen Br, filial af J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. with registered office at Kalvebod Brygge 39-41, 1560 København V, Denmark. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg, Copenhagen Br, filial af J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. is authorized  and regulated by Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and jointly supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the CSSF. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg, Copenhagen Br, filial af J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. is also subject to the supervision of Finanstilsynet (Danish FSA) and registered with Finanstilsynet as a branch of J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. under code 29009. In Sweden, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Stockholm Bankfilial, with registered office at Hamngatan 15, Stockholm, 11147, Sweden. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Stockholm Bankfilial is authorized and regulated by Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and jointly supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the CSSF. J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A., Stockholm Bankfilial is also subject to the supervision of Finansinspektionen (Swedish FSA). Registered with Finansinspektionen as a branch of J.P. Morgan Bank Luxembourg S.A. In France, this material is distributed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“JPMCB”), Paris branch, which is regulated by the French banking authorities Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution and Autorité des Marchés Financiers. In Switzerland, material is distributed by J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA, with registered address at rue de la Confédération, 8, 1204, Geneva, Switzerland, which is authorized and supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), with registered address at Laupenstrasse 27, 3003, Bern, Switzerland, as a bank and a securities dealer in Switzerland. Please consult the following link to obtain information regarding J.P. Morgan’s EMEA data protection policy: https://www.jpmorgan.com/privacy.

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In Hong Kong, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Hong Kong branch. JPMCB, Hong Kong branch is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, we will cease to use your personal data for our marketing purposes without charge if you so request. In Singapore, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Singapore branch. JPMCB, Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Dealing and advisory services and discretionary investment management services are provided to you by JPMCB, Hong Kong/Singapore branch (as notified to you). Banking and custody services are provided to you by JPMCB Singapore Branch. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong, Singapore or any other jurisdictions. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to this document. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. For materials which constitute product advertisement under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisers Act, this advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a national banking association chartered under the laws of the United States, and as a body corporate, its shareholder’s liability is limited.

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JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCBNA) (ABN 43 074 112 011/AFS Licence No: 238367) is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Material provided by JPMCBNA in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Please inform us if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.

JPMS is a registered foreign company (overseas) (ARBN 109293610) incorporated in Delaware, U.S.A. Under Australian financial services licensing requirements, carrying on a financial services business in Australia requires a financial service provider, such as J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL), unless an exemption applies. JPMS is exempt from the requirement to hold an AFSL under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Act) in respect of financial services it provides to you, and is regulated by the SEC, FINRA and CFTC under U.S. laws, which differ from Australian laws. Material provided by JPMS in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. The information provided in this material is not intended to be, and must not be, distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons in Australia. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Act. Please inform us immediately if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.

This material has not been prepared specifically for Australian investors. It:

  • May contain references to dollar amounts which are not Australian dollars;
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  • Does not address Australian tax issues.

References to “J.P. Morgan” are to JPM, its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. “J.P. Morgan Private Bank” is the brand name for the private banking business conducted by JPM.

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