Anastasia Amoroso Executive Director, Head of Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy
可持續投資
可再生能源投資:迎接清潔能源的新時代
在政府扶持和良好的經濟性的雙重推動下,未來可再生能源有望快速發展,爲投資者帶來巨大的機遇。
「可再生能源的發電成本已降至與天然氣發電成本相當 ─ 甚至更低的水平,遠低於煤電成本。」
清潔: 無污染。 成本低廉並可預測: 不會隨大宗商品價格波動而變化。可再生: 無限量。 本地獲得、穩定可靠: 不受地緣政治左右。換言之,這是一種不同於煤炭、石油或天然氣的可再生發電能源。
結論
我們認爲清潔能源經濟性的提升以及政府對清潔能源的大力扶持最終將爲投資者帶來超預期的收益—清潔能源産業鏈相關公司有望實現兩位數的盈利增長。目前的預測顯示,2019-2022年全球清潔能源行業的盈利將增長17%,遠高於標普500指數等主要基準指數的增長。
下面我們將具體闡述這一結論背後的邏輯並梳理清潔能源領域蘊含的投資機會。
My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Did you know that only 20% of us living in 4,300 cities around the world today breathe clean air that meets environmental standards? The rest of us are breathing in some level of polluted air, which has long been linked to damaging impacts on human health.
Well, now it is increasingly possible to both enjoy modern life and breathe cleaner air. This is because clean or renewable energy, after years of hype and at times disappointment, has finally come of age, and it promises to significantly reduce our reliance on air-polluting fossil fuels.
So why now? Because many forces are finally combining to make clean energy our reality. Specifically, the government push for clean energy and the economics pull of solar and wind technologies are attracting more and more industry, consumer and corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy.
First, speaking of government push, $54 billion of post-COVID fiscal stimulus worldwide is being directed towards green initiatives. But now add on top of it more than $600 billion of green stimulus just recently agreed to by the European Union. This is a significant further push on top of already existing government commitments to renewables.
For example, Europe plans to generate 32% of its electricity from clean energy by 2030. China targets 35% from renewables by the same date. And in the U.S., although there is no official federal target, 29 states have renewable energy commitments by 2030 or before. This government push, it means significant acceleration of clean energy during this decade.
But perhaps even more important than the government push is the pull of attractive economics of clean energy like wind and solar. The cost of solar fell 82% from 2010, while the cost of onshore wind energy declined by 39%. In fact, electricity production using these renewables fell so much that it is now cheaper to build new solar and wind capacity than a new coal plant, and almost as cheap as natural gas. That is a true inflection point. It is not surprising then globally, solar and wind are projected to represent 60% of new capacity as from 2021 to 2025. And in 2019, they already accounted for 72%
In addition to the government push and the favorable economic pull, it is the corporate commitment to sustainability that is driving the adoption of clean energy. For example, more than 200 companies globally, or a quarter of the global Fortune 500 companies, have committed to renewable energy by 2050 or sooner. And one in three of them are already 75% towards their goals.
Interestingly, one-in-two companies say that they’re motivated by cost savings. We think it is the corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy that could be the source of upside surprise to investors.
So the bottom line is this, the forces of government policies, favorable economics and shareholder focus on corporate sustainability are combining to accelerate the push towards renewables. Already this year, clean energy companies significantly outperform [RATA 00:03:27] indices in the first half of 2020. And judging from the substantial projected annual earnings growth of 17% for the next three years, this streak of outperformance may continue.
Of course, there’s still plenty of risk to consider, political headwinds or the fact that renewables are not always 100% green. But for investors who are careful in navigating these risks, this can still mean a wealth of opportunities in both public and private markets. Specifically, companies focusing on various wind and solar technologies, which are enabling this transition to clean energy, they should stand to benefit.
Thank you joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you more on this very important topic of clean energy. It is important to us, both for our financial and personal health.
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Investment Insights Megatrends: Clean Energy.
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A woman with long blonde hair and dark eyes, Anastasia Amoroso.
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Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy
Ms. Rooney:
My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Did you know that only 20% of us living in 4,300 cities around the world today breathe clean air that meets environmental standards? The rest of us are breathing in some level of polluted air, which has long been linked to damaging impacts on human health. Well, now it is increasingly possible to both enjoy modern life and breathe cleaner air. This is because clean or renewable energy, after years of hype and at times disappointment, has finally come of age, and it promises to significantly reduce our reliance on air-polluting fossil fuels.
So why now? Because many forces are finally combining to make clean energy our reality. Specifically, the government push for clean energy and the economics pull of solar and wind technologies are attracting more and more industry, consumer and corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy. First, speaking of government push, $54 billion of post-COVID fiscal stimulus worldwide is being directed towards green initiatives. But now add on top of it more than $600 billion of green stimulus just recently agreed to by the European Union. This is a significant further push on top of already existing government commitments to renewables.
On screen:
A bar chart appears, showing "COVID-19 stimulus packages approved to date are leaning "green," with "Global Green Stimulus Adopted" at 54 billion dollars and "Green Stimulus Passed by European Union in July 2020" at just over 600 billion dollars.
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Source: CNBC, July 21, 2020, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, July 23, 2020.
Ms. Rooney:
For example, Europe plans to generate 32% of its electricity from clean energy by 2030. China targets 35% from renewables by the same date. And in the U.S., although there is no official federal target, 29 states have renewable energy commitments by 2030 or before. This government push, it means significant acceleration of clean energy during this decade. But perhaps even more important than the government push is the pull of attractive economics of clean energy like wind and solar. The cost of solar fell 82% from 2010, while the cost of onshore wind energy declined by 39%. In fact, electricity production using these renewables fell so much that it is now cheaper to build new solar and wind capacity than a new coal plant, and almost as cheap as natural gas. That is a true inflection point.
On screen:
A line chart appears, labeled "Cost of wind and solar is below coal, converged with natural gas. Dollars per megawatt hour (real 2019.)" The chart shows:
- Solar at just above 350 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 50 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Onshore wind at just above 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 50 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Offshore wind at just above 200 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Natural gas at about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2014 and remaining at about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Coal at about 75 dollars per megawatt hour in 2014 and remaining at about 75 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020.
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Small print text appears.
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1H 2020 LCOE Data Viewer. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. April 28, 2020. LCOE is a levelized cost of energy, the net present value of the unit-cost of electricity over the lifetime of a generating asset. It is often taken as a proxy of the average price that the generating asset must receive in a market to break even over its lifetime.
Ms. Rooney:
It is not surprising then globally, solar and wind are projected to represent 60% of new capacity as from 2021 to 2025. And in 2019, they already accounted for 72% In addition to the government push and the favorable economic pull, it is the corporate commitment to sustainability that is driving the adoption of clean energy. For example, more than 200 companies globally, or a quarter of the global Fortune 500 companies, have committed to renewable energy by 2050 or sooner. And one in three of them are already 75% towards their goals.
Interestingly, one-in-two companies say that they’re motivated by cost savings. We think it is the corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy that could be the source of upside surprise to investors.
So the bottom line is this, the forces of government policies, favorable economics and shareholder focus on corporate sustainability are combining to accelerate the push towards renewables. Already this year, clean energy companies significantly outperform [RATA 00:03:27] indices in the first half of 2020.
On screen:
A bar chart appears, labeled "Government push and favorable economics are combining forces to make clean energy a reality." It shows:
- S&P 500 at 5.78%;
- Nasdaq Computer at 9.96%;
- iShares Global Clean Energy ETF at 16.73%;
- Nasdaq Biotech at 27.23%.
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Small print text appears.
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Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of April 20, 2020. For clean energy, used the average 2019-2022 CAGR excluding stocks that have negative EPS or that EPS wasn't otherwise available.
Ms. Rooney:
And judging from the substantial projected annual earnings growth of 17% for the next three years, this streak of outperformance may continue. Of course, there’s still plenty of risk to consider, political headwinds or the fact that renewables are not always 100% green. But for investors who are careful in navigating these risks, this can still mean a wealth of opportunities in both public and private markets. Specifically, companies focusing on various wind and solar technologies, which are enabling this transition to clean energy, they should stand to benefit.
Thank you joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you more on this very important topic of clean energy. It is important to us, both for our financial and personal health.
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摩根大通私人銀行跨資產主題策略主管Anastasia Amoroso解釋,如今人們越來越有希望在享受現代生活的同時呼吸更潔淨的空氣。
「去年,美國的太陽能和風能等可再生能源的消費量超過煤炭。」
32% 到2030年再生能源消費量
歐盟已承諾將於2050年之前實現「碳中和」目標。根據歐盟的規劃,到2030年,可再生能源消費佔比至少要達到32%2。據估測,歐洲向可再生能源和電池的轉型有望帶來2.6萬億美元的投資機會,其中有60%將來自於風能,28%將來自於太陽能。
到2030年,可再生能源占总能耗的20%
到2030年,可再生能源占总能耗的17%
美國向可再生能源轉型的速度更爲緩慢。美國可再生發電量6佔比目前爲20%,預計到2030年將升至28%。當前,美國29個州的政策和目標是推動可再生能源普及的主要因素。2020-2030年,美國風力和太陽能發電量預計將各自增長1.5倍(請參見圖表1)。
線圖顯示自2012年以來可再生能源佔總發電量的歷史百分比,以及直至2048年歐盟、中國及美國三大地區的預測百分比。在這段期間,美國可再生能源的普及速度滯後歐盟及中國
線圖顯示下列各項能源的不同均化發電成本基準:太陽能、海上風能、岸上風能、天然氣及煤炭。所示數據由2009年下半年截至2020年上半年為止。在這段期間,包括太陽能及風能的可再生能源均化發電成本下跌幅度明顯大於天然氣或煤炭。太陽能均化發電成本下跌82%,岸上風能下跌39%,海上風能下跌29%。
電池儲能技術預計將是解決可再生發電間歇性問題的關鍵,這項技術的成本也在逐漸下降。自2010年以來,電池包的成本已下降84%。9
商業客戶
除了監管要求和經濟性的提升以外,投資者對可持續發展的日益關注也是推動可再生能源普及的重要因素。我們預期商業客戶將成爲清潔能源的重要消費者。
目前,美國有37%的電力需求來自於商業用電10,其中包括電腦設備的電力供應以及樓宇建築的空調、暖氣和照明用電。迄今爲止,全球已有200多家公司(用電量總計228太瓦時)加入了RE100倡議,承諾將在2050年之前100%使用可再生能源。目前已有三分之一的公司達到75%的使用量;有半數的公司使用可再生能源的目的是爲了節約成本11。從總體上看,有四分之一的財富世界500强公司已宣布實現碳中和或到2030年將使用100%的可再生能源或達到基於科學的減排目標12。
以下是幾個關於公司如何響應可再生能源承諾的例子:
“云数据中心现在消耗全球2%以上的电力,排放的二氧化碳大致相当于航空业。”
立即與您的摩根大通團隊聯繫,把握可持續投資機遇
聯繫我們
投資前景
世界經濟向可再生能源的轉型雖已醞釀多年,但直至今日才在多重利好因素的共振下逐步實現。顯而易見,行業和企業界對清潔能源的承諾正在日益增加。我們預期清潔能源的普及速度有望超出投資者的預期,帶來廣闊的增長機會。
我們認爲公開市場和私募市場存在以下四個方面的投資機會:
- 供應可再生能源且回報率具有吸引力的公用事業公司。
- 購買和租賃可再生能源資産、能够將現金流轉化爲股息收益 的收益型公司。
- 有助於改善成本效率、新增裝機量不斷提升的太陽能和風電技術。
- 有助於管理電力負荷和最優傳輸的數字化技術,例如智能電網資産性能管理系統和「物聯網」。
此外,碳積分、可再生能源積分和綠色債券領域的機會亦值得關注。
但需要注意的是,可再生能源領域的投資並非高枕無憂。除了投資標的的挑選難度較大以外,可再生能源投資還存在以下一般性的風險:
- 中國對稀土的控制(稀土是許多可再生能源採集技術不可缺少的元素)
- 美國 政治風向的變化和可再生能源政策的調整
- 可再生能源並不總是絕對的綠色環保,一些清潔能源技術的生産過程會産生潜在的有害廢物
1 資料來源:《2019年新能源展望》,彭博新能源財經,2019年6月。
2 歐盟委員會關於可再生能源、能源效率和治理的新規,2018年12月4日。
3 在中國經濟增長的推動下,到2042年全國用電量預計將增長76%(到2050年,經合組織國家的電力需求預計每年僅增長0.4%)。
4《可再生能源發展「十三五」規劃》,中國國家能源局,2016年12月10日。
5 資料來源:《2019年新能源展望》,彭博新能源財經,2019年6月。
6 水力,地熱,生物質,陸上/海上風能,電廠規模和小規模光伏。
7 國際可再生能源署,https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewables-Increasingly-Beat-Even-Cheapest-Coal-Competitors-on-Cost
8 當然,未來的新增發電容量不會全部都是可再生能源。許多工業應用仍需要傳統石油、天然氣和化石燃料的高能源含量,因此到2050年,這些傳統燃料仍將是玻璃、大宗化學品、鋼鐵等行業的主要能源。此外,燃氣輪機聯合循環和尖峰燃氣發電廠仍將在提供備用和可調度電力方面發揮重要的作用。
9 2019年的電池儲能成本爲186美元/千瓦時。到2024年和2030年,電池儲能成本預計將分別進一步降至94美元/千瓦時和62美元/千瓦時。資料來源:彭博新能源財經,2019年6月。
10 美國環保署、美國能源信息署、電力數據瀏覽器,2017年12月。
11《RE100進展與洞察》,2019年12月。
12《行動勝於空談》,Natural Capital Partners,2019年9月。公司「基於科學」的減排目標是指減排目標符合最新的氣候科學,與《巴黎協定》「把全球氣溫升幅控制在比前工業化時期高2攝氏度以內,並努力將氣溫升幅進一步限制在1.5攝氏度以內」的目標保持一致。
13 https://e360.yale.edu/features/energy-hogs-can-huge-data-centers-be-made-more-ecient
14 本文件不構成投資建議。不得將本材料視爲投資研究或摩根大通的投資研究報告。
15 冰島、芬蘭和瑞典等北歐國家已逐漸成爲數據中心客戶的理想目的地,因爲這些國家在可再生能源發電領域位居領先,並且能够提供有利的低溫環境以解決數據中心的散熱問題。
16 本文件不構成投資建議。不得將本材料視爲投資研究或摩根大通的投資研究報告。
17 https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/green-power-partnership-national-top-100
18 本文件不構成投資建議。不得將本材料視爲投資研究或摩根大通的投資研究報告。
19 https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/wind.html