宏观经济及资本市场
市场解读：人类的韧性－遇强越强
目前，我们的投资组合采取主动防御策略。早期复苏还没出现，但不远矣。
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MAY 2020. Market Thoughts: THE RESILIENCE OF HUMANITY
Ms. Rooney:
Text on screen:
Nancy Rooney, Global Head of Managed Solutions. J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Ms. Rooney:
Thank you for joining us for a special edition of Market Thoughts. These are challenging times that we’re in and, and they go far beyond financial markets and, and financial measurement. And while they’re unprecedented and they’re unsettling, the volatility that they’ve brought isn’t new to us. And so, to discuss them, as well as how we’re positioned in our portfolios I’m delighted to be joined, at home, um, by our CIO Richard Madigan. So, Richard, but before we jump into markets, I think it’s helpful maybe to give some context.
Text on screen:
Richard Madigan, Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Ms. Rooney:
And we began the year overweight equities in our portfolios by about 2%. As the COVID news started to comeout, we moved to neutral in early March. And then, shortly thereafter, went to an 8% underweight as the virus shifted from something that was thought to originally be contained in Asia to something that had the makings of what it is now, which is a global pandemic. And, uh, since that time we have seen equity and fixed income markets bounce around a lot. And, most recently, we’ve seen equities bounce 20 to 25% off their, their lows. As more and more details around, uh. . . emerge around the healthcare implications. And, and so with all eyes kind of rightfully focused on the personal toll that this is taking across the world, I wanna spend some time with you talking about the economic toll and ultimately like what it means for portfolios. So, so maybe a good place for us to start is just around what the Fed and some of the other central governments have done as a response.
Mr. Madigan:
I think it’s important to kind of emphasize, I think, all policymakers learned a lot from the financial crisis and U.S. policymakers in particular. If I had to pick a mantra, uh, for it, I think, it’s now move fast and didn’t break things. Uh, the response has been incredibly comprehensive, and that’s not only from a monetary perspective, so central banks and the Fed, as you emphasized, but also fiscally. And I actually think the fiscal easing, the fiscal response is going to be the one that is the most important in sustaining the economy through the next quarter or two. Um, but I’m saying that recognizing that the Fed is probably, in particular, um, really focused on making sure that liquidity is back in treasury markets and core bonds, and the actions we’ve seen have been incredibly supportive for credit markets, which were almost under distressed conditions in late March and early April. Um, the good and the bad news from Washington’s perspective, uh, and what happens with regard to fiscal policy, I think, is, uh, we’re in a spend-whatever-it-takes mode. And so, while you’re watching the Fed focused on zero interest rates, I think Washington is focused on unemployment checks to keep income coming in as best they can in small and medium-sized enterprises, so that we don’t lose too many businesses along the way. Um, I say all that constructively, but I also want to recognize there’s a cost that’s associated with this. So, there’s going to be a bill to pay with regard to extending debt to GDP, and what that means to the broad ecomony. But, but I think the costs of not acting, uh, as aggressively as we’re seeing policy actions right now, is far greater than no action.
Ms. Rooney:
So the Fed drop rates to zero.
Mr. Madigan:
Yes.
Ms. Rooney:
I think it’s probably fair to say that we’re going to be in a low interest rate environment for a while. If I’m gonna. . .not gonna earn that much on fixed income, wouldn’t I be better off just taking to the easy trade-in and putting that piece in cash?
Mr. Madigan:
So the, the favorite uh, Madigan word is “Optionality,” and you get optionality in bonds. We talk all the time about the fact that interest rates are low, but bonds are actually out-yielding cash, so don’t lose sight of that. Um, the optionality dynamic fills in, with regard to bonds, is a risk diversifier. And, again I know the yield is unexciting, but I can tell you that the duration that we’ve held in portfolios through all of the volatility that we’ve seen, over the course of the last three months and, and longer, um, has helped buffer drawdown. So, bonds are doing exactly what I want them to be doing right now. Now, you start to think about the cash versus the core bond dynamic, when I’m worried about inflation. So as inflation comes back into the equation, uh, then we’ll be much more watchful of that dynamic between full duration and short duration. But, quite honestly, over the next nine to 12 months, I think I’m more concerned about slower growth and disinflation, than I am whatsoever in inflationary shocks.
Ms. Rooney:
Now you, you recently started to build a position in high yield.
Mr. Madigan:
Yep.
Ms. Rooney:
And, when I look at that, I guess I immediately think, Hey, does, does that mean that it’s kind of safe to go back into the market?
Mr. Madigan:
The most important positioning for me right now in portfolios, uh, if you want to read a view is the fact that we’re underweight equities. So, like I’m still playing what I’m gonna call proactive defense around risk-taking in markets. Um, we added the high yield in late March when credit spreads blew out. And we just simply felt that default risk was exaggerated. We sold out of high-yield last year and stepped back from it. We’re now beginning to rebuild positions in high-yield. So, I guess it’s a first salvo to rebuilding risk positions in a portfolio. I’m also using it to barbell against core bonds to add a little bit more yield or carry into portfolios, because I can put a higher probability certainty of return on an income stream than I can the variability of risk assets whether that be extended credit, or its equity markets.
Ms. Rooney:
Yeah.
Mr. Madigan:
So I expect this to continue to build into those portfolios when we’re. . .we see the right opportunities. But there’s an awful lot of things that are still unknown out there.
Ms. Rooney:
You started to build some of those defensive properties within the equity components of a portfolio last year.
Mr. Madigan:
Yes.
Ms. Rooney:
And, as I look at how things are evolving now, it looks like you’re overweight to the U.S., which you’ve had for a while, um, is even higher than it was before, is, is that a statement about the U.S., or a statement about other places?
Mr. Madigan:
Both.
Ms. Rooney:
Yes (laughs).
Mr. Madigan:
Um, and I’m not being cute on that, but I, I think it, it’s meant to be a big statement about some of the policy response that we've talked about and the U.S. probably being the most assertive and proactive. So, ironically, I’m leaning further into the U.S., uh, with the view that it’s the more defensive allocation. And I actually think the one that can come out faster, uh, as we start to stabilize the economy and it gradually begins to recover. Um, within that, you mentioned some of the things that we’ve been positioned around defensively last year. Um, healthcare remains a sector in the U.S. that we’re leaning into strongly with defensive characteristics and feel good about. Technology is as well and specifically within technology the cloud. I think the real wild card right now though for everyone is going to be earnings this year.
Ms. Rooney:
How do I know if markets are expensive or cheap if you don’t have earnings and, and CEOs don’t really want to give guidance because they don’t know?
Mr. Madigan:
The short answer is you don’t. And, so, I question anyone that is pretending to have a view on relative cheapness or how expensive a market is this year right now. We simply don’t have that visibility. You need earnings to have a view on multiples and valuations and we don’t have them. And literally as we’re going through this earning season and talking to companies, the number of companies that are just pulling guidance for this year is astounding. And by the way, they’re doing it for the right reasons, they just don’t have the visibility around it. I think the structural thing that’s changed from the markets perspective and for investors is the policy response we’ve talked about, because it has been so assertive that what investors in the market are doing right now is basically writing off this year. They’ve said, “We don’t have visibility, we don’t understand it, but we believe that the extreme left tail will be curtailed with regard to staying in recession and not that becoming something worse.” What that’s allowing investors to do is look into 2021 and even 2022, just to get an anchoring for the fact on where do they think we recover to and then what multiple can you factor into that? But there’s more guesswork in that from everyone right now than there is any certainty.
Ms. Rooney:
If I’m a client, what I, I guess what I would really want to know is, as you sit here today, would you think stocks are higher as we look out the next year or two?
Mr. Madigan:
I believe they will. And I think that’s a really important point, because if I didn’t, we’d actually have a higher underweight in our equity positions right now. Um, these are really unprecedented times, so any pretense of certainty right now around almost anything, I challenge an awful lot in terms of being caution. And, and that reflects the caution we’re taking in portfolios as well. Um, as I, I’ve kidded you a thousand times, I’m passionate about a lot of things in life, uh, but never around markets.
Ms. Rooney:
As you think about that recovery phase that that would change some of your underlying positions, are you looking at that or, or am I too early in even asking that question?
Mr. Madigan:
So, you’re early in asking it and we’re early in looking at it. Um, because I want to manage expectations on, on kind of how we get there. And you’ve heard me also say a thousand times, we’re active managers. So, I always want to be anticipating where I think we’re going in the market cycle and where there are opportunities. Um, wh- the intent is to rebuild risk positions. And we talked a little bit about that with regard to high yield and extended credit. The next logical step is starting to reduce our equity underweight. We’ve actually just begun to do that this week. Um, so again, good leading indicator in terms of stepping back up into markets. Um, I also got a shopping list with the team. And I think that two things that stand out if I had to pick them right now, um, the U.S. financial sector, and industrials. Those are two areas that are. . .have been under tremendous amount of pressure and on that 18- to 24-month horizon, I think offer an awful lot of value, uh, in terms of opportunity.
Ms. Rooney:
I think the news and the events of our times has shaken financial markets and all of us, um, and as you’ve heard from Richard, we’ve responded accordingly in our portfolios.
Ms. Rooney:
So, let me see if I can put all those pieces together. The next few months bring the possibility of, of more downside as markets factor in the economic impact of reopening our global economy, which is why we’re cautiously positioned with an equity underweight. Um, but that has started to shift. Since establishing that original underweight, we’ve added a little bit of equity back, we’ve started, um, most notably in the form of high-yield which offers the ability to gain equity-like returns with potentially less risk in, in that process. And while it is early days, uh, that trade is working as broader fixed-income markets stabilize.
Richard Madigan
Yep.
Nancy Rooney:
Within equities, we maintain our overweight to the U.S., which entered the crisis in the strongest financial position and likewise we’d expect to emerge the fastest. Longer term we remain cautiously optimistic but pragmatic to know that there will be bumps along the way. Um, but we’re prepared for that in our portfolio as we’ve been through previous crises. But all of us are here to help you make informed decisions, not just about your portfolios, but about all of your financial goals. And I know I speak for Richard as well when I say please don’t hesitate to contact us with any questions or concerns as we all do our best to stay ahead of developments in our rapidly changing world. Thank you and thank you, Richard.
Richard Madigan:
Thanks, Nancy.
Text on screen:
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Text on screen:
MAY 2020. Market Thoughts: THE RESILIENCE OF HUMANITY
Ms. Rooney:
Text on screen:
Nancy Rooney, Global Head of Managed Solutions. J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Ms. Rooney:
Thank you for joining us for a special edition of Market Thoughts. These are challenging times that we’re in and, and they go far beyond financial markets and, and financial measurement. And while they’re unprecedented and they’re unsettling, the volatility that they’ve brought isn’t new to us. And so, to discuss them, as well as how we’re positioned in our portfolios I’m delighted to be joined, at home, um, by our CIO Richard Madigan. So, Richard, but before we jump into markets, I think it’s helpful maybe to give some context.
Text on screen:
Richard Madigan, Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Ms. Rooney:
And we began the year overweight equities in our portfolios by about 2%. As the COVID news started to comeout, we moved to neutral in early March. And then, shortly thereafter, went to an 8% underweight as the virus shifted from something that was thought to originally be contained in Asia to something that had the makings of what it is now, which is a global pandemic. And, uh, since that time we have seen equity and fixed income markets bounce around a lot. And, most recently, we’ve seen equities bounce 20 to 25% off their, their lows. As more and more details around, uh. . . emerge around the healthcare implications. And, and so with all eyes kind of rightfully focused on the personal toll that this is taking across the world, I wanna spend some time with you talking about the economic toll and ultimately like what it means for portfolios. So, so maybe a good place for us to start is just around what the Fed and some of the other central governments have done as a response.
Mr. Madigan:
I think it’s important to kind of emphasize, I think, all policymakers learned a lot from the financial crisis and U.S. policymakers in particular. If I had to pick a mantra, uh, for it, I think, it’s now move fast and didn’t break things. Uh, the response has been incredibly comprehensive, and that’s not only from a monetary perspective, so central banks and the Fed, as you emphasized, but also fiscally. And I actually think the fiscal easing, the fiscal response is going to be the one that is the most important in sustaining the economy through the next quarter or two. Um, but I’m saying that recognizing that the Fed is probably, in particular, um, really focused on making sure that liquidity is back in treasury markets and core bonds, and the actions we’ve seen have been incredibly supportive for credit markets, which were almost under distressed conditions in late March and early April. Um, the good and the bad news from Washington’s perspective, uh, and what happens with regard to fiscal policy, I think, is, uh, we’re in a spend-whatever-it-takes mode. And so, while you’re watching the Fed focused on zero interest rates, I think Washington is focused on unemployment checks to keep income coming in as best they can in small and medium-sized enterprises, so that we don’t lose too many businesses along the way. Um, I say all that constructively, but I also want to recognize there’s a cost that’s associated with this. So, there’s going to be a bill to pay with regard to extending debt to GDP, and what that means to the broad ecomony. But, but I think the costs of not acting, uh, as aggressively as we’re seeing policy actions right now, is far greater than no action.
Ms. Rooney:
So the Fed drop rates to zero.
Mr. Madigan:
Yes.
Ms. Rooney:
I think it’s probably fair to say that we’re going to be in a low interest rate environment for a while. If I’m gonna. . .not gonna earn that much on fixed income, wouldn’t I be better off just taking to the easy trade-in and putting that piece in cash?
Mr. Madigan:
So the, the favorite uh, Madigan word is “Optionality,” and you get optionality in bonds. We talk all the time about the fact that interest rates are low, but bonds are actually out-yielding cash, so don’t lose sight of that. Um, the optionality dynamic fills in, with regard to bonds, is a risk diversifier. And, again I know the yield is unexciting, but I can tell you that the duration that we’ve held in portfolios through all of the volatility that we’ve seen, over the course of the last three months and, and longer, um, has helped buffer drawdown. So, bonds are doing exactly what I want them to be doing right now. Now, you start to think about the cash versus the core bond dynamic, when I’m worried about inflation. So as inflation comes back into the equation, uh, then we’ll be much more watchful of that dynamic between full duration and short duration. But, quite honestly, over the next nine to 12 months, I think I’m more concerned about slower growth and disinflation, than I am whatsoever in inflationary shocks.
Ms. Rooney:
Now you, you recently started to build a position in high yield.
Mr. Madigan:
Yep.
Ms. Rooney:
And, when I look at that, I guess I immediately think, Hey, does, does that mean that it’s kind of safe to go back into the market?
Mr. Madigan:
The most important positioning for me right now in portfolios, uh, if you want to read a view is the fact that we’re underweight equities. So, like I’m still playing what I’m gonna call proactive defense around risk-taking in markets. Um, we added the high yield in late March when credit spreads blew out. And we just simply felt that default risk was exaggerated. We sold out of high-yield last year and stepped back from it. We’re now beginning to rebuild positions in high-yield. So, I guess it’s a first salvo to rebuilding risk positions in a portfolio. I’m also using it to barbell against core bonds to add a little bit more yield or carry into portfolios, because I can put a higher probability certainty of return on an income stream than I can the variability of risk assets whether that be extended credit, or its equity markets.
Ms. Rooney:
Yeah.
Mr. Madigan:
So I expect this to continue to build into those portfolios when we’re. . .we see the right opportunities. But there’s an awful lot of things that are still unknown out there.
Ms. Rooney:
You started to build some of those defensive properties within the equity components of a portfolio last year.
Mr. Madigan:
Yes.
Ms. Rooney:
And, as I look at how things are evolving now, it looks like you’re overweight to the U.S., which you’ve had for a while, um, is even higher than it was before, is, is that a statement about the U.S., or a statement about other places?
Mr. Madigan:
Both.
Ms. Rooney:
Yes (laughs).
Mr. Madigan:
Um, and I’m not being cute on that, but I, I think it, it’s meant to be a big statement about some of the policy response that we've talked about and the U.S. probably being the most assertive and proactive. So, ironically, I’m leaning further into the U.S., uh, with the view that it’s the more defensive allocation. And I actually think the one that can come out faster, uh, as we start to stabilize the economy and it gradually begins to recover. Um, within that, you mentioned some of the things that we’ve been positioned around defensively last year. Um, healthcare remains a sector in the U.S. that we’re leaning into strongly with defensive characteristics and feel good about. Technology is as well and specifically within technology the cloud. I think the real wild card right now though for everyone is going to be earnings this year.
Ms. Rooney:
How do I know if markets are expensive or cheap if you don’t have earnings and, and CEOs don’t really want to give guidance because they don’t know?
Mr. Madigan:
The short answer is you don’t. And, so, I question anyone that is pretending to have a view on relative cheapness or how expensive a market is this year right now. We simply don’t have that visibility. You need earnings to have a view on multiples and valuations and we don’t have them. And literally as we’re going through this earning season and talking to companies, the number of companies that are just pulling guidance for this year is astounding. And by the way, they’re doing it for the right reasons, they just don’t have the visibility around it. I think the structural thing that’s changed from the markets perspective and for investors is the policy response we’ve talked about, because it has been so assertive that what investors in the market are doing right now is basically writing off this year. They’ve said, “We don’t have visibility, we don’t understand it, but we believe that the extreme left tail will be curtailed with regard to staying in recession and not that becoming something worse.” What that’s allowing investors to do is look into 2021 and even 2022, just to get an anchoring for the fact on where do they think we recover to and then what multiple can you factor into that? But there’s more guesswork in that from everyone right now than there is any certainty.
Ms. Rooney:
If I’m a client, what I, I guess what I would really want to know is, as you sit here today, would you think stocks are higher as we look out the next year or two?
Mr. Madigan:
I believe they will. And I think that’s a really important point, because if I didn’t, we’d actually have a higher underweight in our equity positions right now. Um, these are really unprecedented times, so any pretense of certainty right now around almost anything, I challenge an awful lot in terms of being caution. And, and that reflects the caution we’re taking in portfolios as well. Um, as I, I’ve kidded you a thousand times, I’m passionate about a lot of things in life, uh, but never around markets.
Ms. Rooney:
As you think about that recovery phase that that would change some of your underlying positions, are you looking at that or, or am I too early in even asking that question?
Mr. Madigan:
So, you’re early in asking it and we’re early in looking at it. Um, because I want to manage expectations on, on kind of how we get there. And you’ve heard me also say a thousand times, we’re active managers. So, I always want to be anticipating where I think we’re going in the market cycle and where there are opportunities. Um, wh- the intent is to rebuild risk positions. And we talked a little bit about that with regard to high yield and extended credit. The next logical step is starting to reduce our equity underweight. We’ve actually just begun to do that this week. Um, so again, good leading indicator in terms of stepping back up into markets. Um, I also got a shopping list with the team. And I think that two things that stand out if I had to pick them right now, um, the U.S. financial sector, and industrials. Those are two areas that are. . .have been under tremendous amount of pressure and on that 18- to 24-month horizon, I think offer an awful lot of value, uh, in terms of opportunity.
Ms. Rooney:
I think the news and the events of our times has shaken financial markets and all of us, um, and as you’ve heard from Richard, we’ve responded accordingly in our portfolios.
Ms. Rooney:
So, let me see if I can put all those pieces together. The next few months bring the possibility of, of more downside as markets factor in the economic impact of reopening our global economy, which is why we’re cautiously positioned with an equity underweight. Um, but that has started to shift. Since establishing that original underweight, we’ve added a little bit of equity back, we’ve started, um, most notably in the form of high-yield which offers the ability to gain equity-like returns with potentially less risk in, in that process. And while it is early days, uh, that trade is working as broader fixed-income markets stabilize.
Richard Madigan
Yep.
Nancy Rooney:
Within equities, we maintain our overweight to the U.S., which entered the crisis in the strongest financial position and likewise we’d expect to emerge the fastest. Longer term we remain cautiously optimistic but pragmatic to know that there will be bumps along the way. Um, but we’re prepared for that in our portfolio as we’ve been through previous crises. But all of us are here to help you make informed decisions, not just about your portfolios, but about all of your financial goals. And I know I speak for Richard as well when I say please don’t hesitate to contact us with any questions or concerns as we all do our best to stay ahead of developments in our rapidly changing world. Thank you and thank you, Richard.
Richard Madigan:
Thanks, Nancy.
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概要:
市场展望
- 随着投资者消化新冠疫情对经济、盈利和违约风险的影响，市场可能会持续波动。
- 决策者已展现出承诺和决心，支持经济度过这场危机，防止衰退进一步恶化。
- 我认为我们不会经历传统的衰退。展望未来几个月，对市场非常重要的事情是投资者仍然注重放眼未来。
投资组合
- 我们对投资组合采取主动型管理模式。目前而言，我们采取主动防御策略。鉴于未知因素太多，我们不能大举投资风险资产。
- 我们坚持的两个最重要立场，一是低配股票，另一是核心债券配置持有和基准指数同样的久期。我们低配的所有股票都是美国以外其他股市的股票。
- 我们不再处于周期的「后期阶段」。一切已重新开始，我们现在处于衰退期。投资者会逐渐将关注的焦点转向早期复苏。 但我们现在还没走到那一步。
迅速应变，避免造成破坏
美国政策制定者在财政和货币政策方面的行动速度令我肃然起敬。2008-2009年的全球金融危机让美国的政策制定者上了宝贵的一课，当年他们在应对危机过于迟缓。如今的政策指示是迅速应变，避免造成破坏。代价是其次，现在的首要任务是防止衰退进一步恶化。当然，以后肯定要为此买单。
目前市场变化的速度之快，美国决策者行动的力度之大，我以前从未见过。我希望欧洲以及其他发达和发展中经济体也能同样行动。我们应该以实事求事的态度对待指导政策的方向和节奏，更遑论投资策略。在为最坏的情况做准备时，应该承认有些情况是无法洞悉的，这一点的重要性不言自明。
由于形势越来越明显，新冠肺炎疫情蔓延不仅严重威胁着亚洲，全球经济亦难逃其魔掌，我们转而大幅低配股票。随着新冠疫情在欧美渐成燎原之势，投资者对快速V型经济复苏的信心也在逐渐动摇。
无论是风险承担的方式还是领域，我们对投资组合都采取主动管理策略。目前，我们正在进行主动防御。这次事件与2018年四季度有所不同，彼时我们预计股市会从恐慌性的年终抛售中迅速恢复过来。但这次不同，情势不但很糟糕，而且可能会继续恶化。目前有太多未知数，无法大举投身于风险投资。
我们对所有投资组合都秉持两个最重要的战术性立场，一个是低配股票，另一个是核心债券配置持有与基准指数相同的久期。我们低配的所有股票都是美国以外其他股市的股票。尽管核心债券收益率没有什么令人兴奋的地方，但高质量债券可以继续发挥重要的风险分散作用，有助于在市场下跌的环境下缓解投资组合受到的冲击。
核心债券的收益超过现金。此外，它们为投资组合提供了丰富的选择，由此形成的保险作用亦不应低估。总有一天，缩短投资组合久期将成为合理选择，但屆時全球经济应该已经开始复苏，而且通胀压力也开始会浮现。
在接下来的9到12个月中，我更担心全球经济增长停滞和通货紧缩。包括商业调查和消费者信心数据在内的领先指标持续显示，通胀目前还不至于引起投资者的不安。
前所未有的历史性事件
当下发生的几乎每一件事，似乎都可谓之为「前所未有的历史性事件」。这无非是表示情况「糟糕」的委婉之辞罢了。我相信我们还会看到，更多的货币和财政刺激政策会根据需要不遗余力地出台。政策上的宽松不会延缓新冠疫情的扩散，也不会直接加快全球经济重启的速度，但宽松政策会发挥桥梁作用，帮助经济度过这场劫难。
美国五大银行已经宣布做出逾200亿美元的初始贷款损失和信贷拨备。欧洲银行承担不起我们在美国看到的如此大规模的损失准备金。他们没有盈利。欧洲央行(ECB)已经暗示，银行准备金的拨备会以经济将在今年年内回暖为前提，并且使用了欧洲央行在欧洲经济按下暂停键之前做出的经济预测，情况实在令投资者非常不安。
各国政府已使全球经济基本处于假死状态，我们已经开始看到由此产生的负面经济后果。欧洲面临着严重的衰退。我们预计今年经济增长至少收缩5%，但最终降幅可能会高达8-10%。至于美国，我正在研究的一个基本情景预测认为，今年会有3%左右的下降。因为我们不知道当前的经济封锁将持续多长时间，或者病毒是否会大举反攻，引发第二波疫情，所以现在的任何经济预测，最多只能被当作易变的推测。
企业盈利也是同样的情况。没人知道如何提供有效的盈利指引，连企业自己都不知道。虽然不时会听到股票市场便宜或昂贵的议论，但其实投资者的心理仍然受到这种不确定性的左右。这种状况需要通过2021年和2022年的盈利情况来探明。
黎明前会有黑暗，但光明必将到来
当前的全球经济崩溃可能是自大萧条以来规模最大的一次。国际货币基金组织在最近将今年全球经济增长前景下调至负增长3%时也表示了同样的看法。经过40多年不间断的年度增长，中国宣布一季度经济同比下降6.8%。
「反身性」是乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)创造的一个术语。但这一理论背后真正的大师是鲁迪·多恩布施。多恩布施(Rudi Dornbusch)曾说过：「在经济学中，危机酝酿的时间比您想象的要长得多，之后爆发的速度也比您想象的要快得多。」对于现在试图判断新冠疫情会对全球经济造成怎样的持久阻力的投资者来说，用这句话来概括总结他们所遭遇的重重挑战当属公允之论。
我之所以提到反身性，是因为我认为这是一个值得牢记的概念，尤其是在市场仍然承受压力的情况下。反身性背后的基本概念是，技术面可能会在极端情况下压倒并重新定义基本面。我们看到债券市场已经出现了若干反身性特征。
让我担心整个市场下行风险的一件事是，我们看到固定收益正在累积压力。不仅是所有信用市场，而且政府债券也是如此。正如投资者最近看到的那样，当股市和债市都在抛售时，这是一个非常有力的信号，说明情况正在迅速恶化，反映技术面已经开始压倒基本面。
竭尽全力，不惜一切代价
我要把最近市场的稳定归功于美联储采取行动，针对关键痛点提供直接支持，正是这些痛点让固定收益市场承受着难以置信的压力。就政策手腕而言，杰伊·鲍威尔(Jay Powell)比马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)显然「略胜一筹」。一定要竭尽全力，不惜一切代价。欧洲的政策制定者应该学着点。
美联储宣布了一系列新举措，以支持信贷在整个经济体中流动起来。包括直接支持大城市、县和州，在地方政府需要的情况下提供最长两年的过渡性融资。
他们还宣布实施大众借贷计划，面向中小型企业提供贷款，以及一项以银行发放的工资保障计划贷款作担保的借贷计划。这些举措将有助释放银行资产负债表，向中小企业提供融资。未来还会需要更多的贷款。
美联储扩大了他们将购买的合格资产的范围，纳入了自3月22日起降级为次级投资级别的投资级信贷，以及高收益领域的交易所买卖基金。他们将购买AAA级商业抵押担保债券和新发行的贷款抵押债券。这也有助于缓解一些市场压力。
前路何在
美联储已经稳定了固定收益市场。我相信，此举降低了一直笼罩在市场上方的左尾风险（指发生几率非常小，但一旦发生将造成极其严重的损失的风险）。重要之处不仅仅在于他们采取了哪些行动，更在于他们强调了自己的承诺是无限的。在经济数据极度糟糕的情况下，美联储认为自己的角色是引领美国经济顺利度过这场金融危机而不至崩溃。这一态度安定了投资者的军心。
几周前，股票市场下跌的概率似乎数倍于上涨。现在，多空力量对比有所改善。美联储削减了笼罩在市场上方的极端左尾风险。这使投资者可以将注意力从剧烈的股市盘中波动略略移开，转向展望未来。
由于尾部风险有所降低，我们不仅适度削减了股票低配的规模，而且还开始重建长期信贷的投资头寸。去年，随着市场持续攀升，我们曾积极降低各种投资组合的风险。其中包括卖出所有高收益债券。当三月下旬信贷利差放大时，我们购买了高收益信贷。我们可能会继续增加此类头寸。
市场总是需要向前看，而那些糟糕的经济数据都是在向后看。虽然近期经济数据普遍弱于预期，但目前投资者已开始不再受困于经济数据。下个月的市场交易行情将是特别重要的观察点。股市以情绪为先导，而市场情绪的变化往往天翻地覆，瞬息万变。
现在，各方关于2020年盈利的巨大分歧已没有那么重要，因为投资者已经把眼光从2020年转向2021年和2022年。如果数据继续恶化，市场压力增加，那么投资者的耐心方程式里，恐怕将要引入一些动态张力的变量了。
就全球经济而言，我不相信在前面等待着我们的是一个短暂的深V型反弹。我打算不等美国国家经济研究局宣布，提前说美国经济已经陷入衰退。但我也不相信我们会经历一次传统的衰退。我认为这是一件好事，而不是坏事。形势的发展完全取决于全球经济引擎何时重新启动。
一些颇有意思的事情已经发生，但投资者尚未完全领悟其意义。我们已经不再处于宏观和市场周期的「后期阶段」。一切已经重新开始，我们已经进入衰退。投资者会逐渐将其关注的焦点转向早期复苏。我们现在还没走到那一步，但希望的曙光已经乍现。
盈利很重要，估值亦如是。但在未来几个月，对各国市场来说，最重要的是投资者坚持关注未来形势的发展。我预计波动仍会反复出现。如果我们不再遭遇几次诸如股票没有任何买单之类的极端情形，我反而会大感惊讶。股市的波动性已经从近期的高点下落，但其指标依然徘徊在历史区间的上限附近。
市场触底需要一个过程，重建信心也一样。我现在寄希望于人类的韧性－遇强越强，来帮助我们度过这场难关。
