完全正确。BRG – JPMPB – Market Thoughts October 2021 Why –
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November 2021. Market Thoughts. Why Are You Bullish Despite Reasons To Be Bearish?
In a spacious office with cushioned chairs, a woman with long blonde hair, Nancy Rooney, sits across from a man with short salt-and-pepper hair, Richard Madigan.
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Nancy Rooney, Global Head of Managed Solutions, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
I have heard you say that it’s hard to Be a bull, but it’s even harder to be a bear. Uh, yet from where I sit, we have supply chain shortages, we have inflation concerns, we have COVID. I can think of a lot of reasons. So help me with what you’re seeing that helps you maintain that bullish position. Which you’ve had really for the last year, year-and-a-half.
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Richard Madigan, Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
So let me anchor you on constructive to, to inch you away from bullish. But it really is based on a view, Nancy, that I think if you made me talk about the risks ahead they still tilt positively into the upside for me. So that’s, that’s the beginning grounding point. Um, I can anchor on a couple of things to kind of give you context for it. The first is global growth. And growth for me right now may be decelerating, but we still expect growth to be above trend this year and next year. So that’s just the anchor component of this as we start to look ahead.
A line chart appears labeled "Figure 1: Economies Still Growing, But Past The Peak." It shows the Composite Purchasing Managers Index in 2019, with:
- Global at about 51;
- Euro Area at about 51;
- (and) the United States at about 53.
It shows, in 2020:
- Global dropping to just under 30;
- Euro Area dropping to about 15;
- (and) the United States dropping to just under 30.
It shows, in 2021:
- Global, rising to about 56 - and at about 52 as of October;
- Euro Area, rising to about 58 - and at about 54 as of October;
- (and) the United States, rising to about 70 - and at about 55 as of October;
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Sources - JPMorgan, IHS Markit, Haver Analytics. Line at 50 seperates expansion and contraction. Data as of October 2021.
Inflation’s certainly a concern, but we’re not gonna know if it’s a problem probably for another two to three quarters. There’s so much noise in that data, in particular as it relates to labor markets. And then also, as you said, supply chain disruptions. So that just has to work itself out. But it—I think there’s a lot behind the headlines that are missed right now. And one starts with balance sheets, if I’m looking at individuals consumers or I’m looking at corporations. I don’t think balance sheets have ever been stronger, uh, literally over the course of the last decade. Why’s that important? It’s important for investment in capital expenditures. So those are very good grounding places. And then again, the one I think lost a little bit in the headlines whether I’m looking at Europe or I’m looking at the U.S. central banks and governments, we continue to see monetary and fiscal stimulus. So combining all of that, we’ve still got a foundational outlook that has upside to it and is incredibly well anchored.
So past the peak
But still above average.
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