鉴于环球市场资产估值昂贵,多元分散风险操作至关重要。我们抱持乐观态度,但时刻不忘警惕,深信股市仍存在进一步上涨空间。
Ms. Rooney:
Hello and welcome. As we prepare to enter 2020, I invite you to join me for a conversation with our Chief Investment Officer, Richard Madigan, on what lies ahead.
So last year was a very strong year in terms of performance, and we saw portfolios ranging from conservative all the way to growth return something between 13 to almost 22 percent for that stock/bond blend. And yet, I think there were a lot of folks who actually pulled money out of equity markets. Almost $250 billion came out. Yet you kept your overweight and you kept it through the whole year. And so the question is, what’s your conviction now in that overweight?
Mr. Madigan:
That’s an easy question to answer: high conviction. We’re active managers. So I show up every day with the team, look at portfolio positions, think about risk, think about whether we want to dial things up or down. We do that so clients don’t have to. We’re still pro-cyclically positioned in portfolios. So at a high level, I’m overweight stocks versus bonds. And within stocks, I’m overweight still the U.S. equity market. And I feel good about that. I think over the last three months, four months, the biggest focus for me has been making sure, given where we are—not only in the cycle but also valuations—that we’re appropriately diversifying risk, and not overreaching or concentrating risk right now in markets.
Ms. Rooney:
Let’s talk about expectations…for a second, because I think there was an element of 2019’s returns… Where global equity markets were up almost 28 percent. That was payback for 2018. But are we also borrowing from future returns? And so if I’m a client and I’m invested, should I lower my expectations?
Mr. Madigan:
Temper expectations if you’re only looking at 2019. And I want anchor on something you said, Nancy. You can’t look at 2019 extraordinary performance without recognizing 2018 and the collapse we saw in risk assets toward the end of that year. Blend the two together, and you’ve got a reasonable approximation of what I think is fair value and reasonable returns.
The pulling-forward dynamic is an interesting question because to me what carried equity markets last year were valuations. It wasn’t earnings. And that’s got to reverse this year. So my expectation is for global earnings, we see five to six percent growth. Maybe some upside around that, and that comes from buyback activity. Tack on two percent for dividends, and as a base case, thinking that we see high single digit returns across global equity markets.
Ms. Rooney:
So in a kind of way a reverse of last year, where multiples stay somewhat similar to where they are now. But it’s earnings that grow. This is an election year. And with every tweet and with every comment… We’re seeing markets move. You also have overweights to some what I would call politically sensitive types of sectors like healthcare is one. And so how do you navigate this type of an environment where there are so many comments that come out that move markets?
Mr. Madigan:
Carefully. I’m a fundamental…investor. So I focus much more on the macro environment, the market environment, what we’re thinking is happening in fiscal monetary policy default risk, and then valuation whether on an absolute or relative basis. Healthcare is an interesting observation because to me those were positions that we held to be a little bit more defensive in the portfolio last year. We actually trimmed them back coming into this year with the expectation that headlines are going to stay noisy. But I want to separate noise from market resistance, and I think there’s a great deal of noise ahead of us. It’s opportunity to me. So that’s a tactical opportunity, again, to step into risk and then to hopefully step back from risk at the right point around it. Politics isn’t going away. The one word of caution I think I’d lend to anyone especially around the U.S. election—we’re very early in this race. We don’t even know who the two candidates are going to be. So paying attention to the political policy rhetoric right now is important. Positioning a portfolio ahead of that and way ahead of November elections I just think is a little presumptuous.
Ms. Rooney:
A lot has been written and talked about in the space of environmental and social responsibility. In fact, we believe it as a firm ourselves. And while you don’t have an ESG strategy per se directly, around the environment, social and governance, it clearly is having an impact in terms of where flows are going.
And so how do you incorporate that as you think about the sectors and where you want to invest?
Mr. Madigan:
For the U.S. market in particular, there’s a structural shift going on that’s gaining momentum. And I can see that not only from investor interest, but also from company interest. When my Equity team is out meeting with companies now, I can tell you in almost every meeting we’re having the theme of sustainable investing, ESG comes up in some form in that conversation, and ironically provoked by companies to a large degree in terms of interest around that. We’re still very early in terms of the definitional state of the toolkit. So as the investment toolkit continues to evolve, I’m trying to discern a couple of things. I think first and fundamentally, as an investor, what does it mean over a longer period with regard to valuations, because you said money is in motion. That may have an impact on credit spreads, in valuations, equity multiples as well. That’s yet to be proven. The one thing I will tell you, it’s a space that I’ve been incredibly excited about and one that I think does greater good in terms of…people’s relative awareness.
Ms. Rooney:
So I would say we have ESG-dedicated strategies for clients who are so motivated. What do you think looks different in 2020, or what are you looking at?
Mr. Madigan:
I think the fact that we have a Phase One trade deal right now brings me back to revisiting emerging markets under the construct, not for valuations because emerging markets are by no means cheap right now, but the earnings dynamic and the how we think earnings will lay out again some of the other international markets. So there’s a little bit more to come on that one. Europe from a top-down perspective to me has still got its challenges with regard to growth. Bottom up is becoming a lot more interesting. So the team is literally looking at sector and subsector exposure. Staples we own and continue to like. We’re doing a bunch of work right now on things as broad as mid-cap exposure to financials, to technology and healthcare. I think you’ll make money in Europe bottom up by sector allocations this year—not blindly allocating top down.
Ms. Rooney:
So if I were to put it all together, you remain overweight equities, funded from bonds, continue to see earnings—in fact the market should grow into their earnings—and bonds, while they don’t offer a terrific from a yield perspective. Not much of a buffer. Still important from a portfolio construction and insurance perspective.
Mr. Madigan:
They are there for portfolio insurance.
Ms. Rooney:
Right. And so that diversification, as I’ve heard you say before, arguably as almost more important when you see things fully valued. But it’s also they’re fully valued, but fairly valued.
Mr. Madigan:
I would say that across markets right now. And that again goes back to the diversification argument. We will inevitably see a bump or two ahead. I don’t want to—or I hesitate in saying I’m looking forward to that. But it’s something we’re ready to take advantage of.
Ms. Rooney:
Thank you, Richard.
Mr. Madigan:
Pleasure.
END
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Please read important information at the end.
On screen:
A blonde woman with a light suit and stylish scarf, Nancy Rooney, sits in a comfortable office and speaks to the viewer.
Ms. Rooney:
Hello and welcome. As we prepare to enter 2020, I invite you to join me for a conversation with our Chief Investment Officer, Richard Madigan, on what lies ahead.
Logo:
J.P.Morgan.
Text on screen:
February 2020. Market Thoughts: Guarded Optimism.
On screen:
Nancy sits in the office across from a man with salt-and-pepper hair in a business suit, with his top button casually undone, Richard Madigan. She gestures slightly with her hands as she begins the conversation.
Text on screen:
Nancy Rooney, Global Head of Managed Solutions. J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Ms. Rooney:
So last year was a very strong year in terms of performance, and we saw portfolios ranging from conservative all the way to growth return something between 13 to almost 22 percent for that stock/bond blend. And yet, I think there were a lot of folks who actually pulled money out of equity markets. Almost $250 billion came out. Yet you kept your overweight and you kept it through the whole year. And so the question is, what’s your conviction now in that overweight?
Text on screen:
Richard Madigan, Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Mr. Madigan:
That’s an easy question to answer: high conviction. We’re active managers. So I show up every day with the team, look at portfolio positions, think about risk, think about whether we want to dial things up or down. We do that so clients don’t have to. We’re still pro-cyclically positioned in portfolios. So at a high level, I’m overweight stocks versus bonds. And within stocks, I’m overweight still the U.S. equity market. And I feel good about that. I think over the last three months, four months, the biggest focus for me has been making sure, given where we are—not only in the cycle but also valuations—that we’re appropriately diversifying risk, and not overreaching or concentrating risk right now in markets.
Ms. Rooney:
Let’s talk about expectations…for a second, because I think there was an element of 2019’s returns… Where global equity markets were up almost 28 percent. That was payback for 2018. But are we also borrowing from future returns? And so if I’m a client and I’m invested, should I lower my expectations?
Mr. Madigan:
Temper expectations if you’re only looking at 2019. And I want anchor on something you said, Nancy. You can’t look at 2019 extraordinary performance without recognizing 2018 and the collapse we saw in risk assets toward the end of that year. Blend the two together, and you’ve got a reasonable approximation of what I think is fair value and reasonable returns.
On screen:
A bar chart appears titled "Risk assets bounced back last year." It shows 2018 Total Returns with: DM equities at about -8%, EM equities at about -15%, US High Yield Bonds at about -3%, and Global Bonds at about 2%. It shows 2019 Total Returns with: DM equities at about 27%, EM equities at about 18%, US High Yield Bonds at about15%, and Global Bonds at about 10%.
Side note:
Small print text.
Text on screen:
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of December 2019. DM equities = MSCI World Index, Global bonds = Bloomberg-Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index, EM equities = MSCI Emerging Markets Index,
and US high yield bonds = JPMorgan Domestic High Yield Index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Mr. Madigan:
The pulling-forward dynamic is an interesting question because to me what carried equity markets last year were valuations. It wasn’t earnings. And that’s got to reverse this year. So my expectation is for global earnings, we see five to six percent growth. Maybe some upside around that, and that comes from buyback activity. Tack on two percent for dividends, and as a base case, thinking that we see high single digit returns across global equity markets.
Text on screen:
2020 Global Equity Return Expectations*: Global Earnings – 5-6%. Dividends and Buyback Activity – 2-4%. High Single Digits. *: Base case.
Ms. Rooney:
So in a kind of way a reverse of last year, where multiples stay somewhat similar to where they are now. But it’s earnings that grow. This is an election year. And with every tweet and with every comment… We’re seeing markets move. You also have overweights to some what I would call politically sensitive types of sectors like healthcare is one. And so how do you navigate this type of an environment where there are so many comments that come out that move markets?
Mr. Madigan:
Carefully. I’m a fundamental…investor. So I focus much more on the macro environment, the market environment, what we’re thinking is happening in fiscal monetary policy default risk, and then valuation whether on an absolute or relative basis. Healthcare is an interesting observation because to me those were positions that we held to be a little bit more defensive in the portfolio last year. We actually trimmed them back coming into this year with the expectation that headlines are going to stay noisy. But I want to separate noise from market resistance, and I think there’s a great deal of noise ahead of us. It’s opportunity to me. So that’s a tactical opportunity, again, to step into risk and then to hopefully step back from risk at the right point around it. Politics isn’t going away. The one word of caution I think I’d lend to anyone especially around the U.S. election—we’re very early in this race. We don’t even know who the two candidates are going to be. So paying attention to the political policy rhetoric right now is important. Positioning a portfolio ahead of that and way ahead of November elections I just think is a little presumptuous.
Ms. Rooney:
A lot has been written and talked about in the space of environmental and social responsibility. In fact, we believe it as a firm ourselves. And while you don’t have an ESG strategy per se directly, around the environment, social and governance, it clearly is having an impact in terms of where flows are going.
Text on screen:
Environmental:
· Renewable energy
· Clean water
Social:
· Community revitalization
· Data security
Governance:
· Gender diversity
· Board composition
Ms. Rooney:
And so how do you incorporate that as you think about the sectors and where you want to invest?
Mr. Madigan:
For the U.S. market in particular, there’s a structural shift going on that’s gaining momentum. And I can see that not only from investor interest, but also from company interest. When my Equity team is out meeting with companies now, I can tell you in almost every meeting we’re having the theme of sustainable investing, ESG comes up in some form in that conversation, and ironically provoked by companies to a large degree in terms of interest around that. We’re still very early in terms of the definitional state of the toolkit. So as the investment toolkit continues to evolve, I’m trying to discern a couple of things. I think first and fundamentally, as an investor, what does it mean over a longer period with regard to valuations, because you said money is in motion. That may have an impact on credit spreads, in valuations, equity multiples as well. That’s yet to be proven. The one thing I will tell you, it’s a space that I’ve been incredibly excited about and one that I think does greater good in terms of…people’s relative awareness.
Ms. Rooney:
So I would say we have ESG-dedicated strategies for clients who are so motivated. What do you think looks different in 2020, or what are you looking at?
Mr. Madigan:
I think the fact that we have a Phase One trade deal right now brings me back to revisiting emerging markets under the construct, not for valuations because emerging markets are by no means cheap right now, but the earnings dynamic and the how we think earnings will lay out again some of the other international markets. So there’s a little bit more to come on that one. Europe from a top-down perspective to me has still got its challenges with regard to growth. Bottom up is becoming a lot more interesting. So the team is literally looking at sector and subsector exposure. Staples we own and continue to like. We’re doing a bunch of work right now on things as broad as mid-cap exposure to financials, to technology and healthcare. I think you’ll make money in Europe bottom up by sector allocations this year—not blindly allocating top down.
Ms. Rooney:
So if I were to put it all together, you remain overweight equities, funded from bonds, continue to see earnings—in fact the market should grow into their earnings—and bonds, while they don’t offer a terrific from a yield perspective. Not much of a buffer. Still important from a portfolio construction and insurance perspective.
Mr. Madigan:
They are there for portfolio insurance.
Ms. Rooney:
Right. And so that diversification, as I’ve heard you say before, arguably as almost more important when you see things fully valued. But it’s also they’re fully valued, but fairly valued.
Mr. Madigan:
I would say that across markets right now. And that again goes back to the diversification argument. We will inevitably see a bump or two ahead. I don’t want to—or I hesitate in saying I’m looking forward to that. But it’s something we’re ready to take advantage of.
Ms. Rooney:
Thank you, Richard.
Mr. Madigan:
Pleasure.
Text on screen:
February 2020. Market Thoughts: Guarded Optimism.
Logo:
J.P.Morgan.
Side note:
Legal disclosures appear.
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摘要:
市场展望
- 回首去年,投资者普遍认为经济将会衰退。我们力排众议,根据基本面因素得出经济不会陷入衰退的观点。放眼现在,市场弥漫着一片谨慎乐观气氛。
- 我认为未来股市将会跑赢债市,但涨势将会比2019年合理。展望未来,环球股市前路将会崎岖难行。
- 全球经济增长应保持在趋势水平,通胀温和。在深入了解新型冠状病毒疫情爆发可能带来的经济影响之前,我们对经济增长抱持的观点存在下行风险。
- 由于央行未来将会按兵不动还是采取宽松货币政策手段已经愈发明显,投资者对利率走向的不确定性减少,有助支撑当前资产的估值水平。
投资组合
- 环球市场资产估值低廉乃投资者的焦点所在。我们是主动型经理人,专注于确保投资组合多元分散风险。鉴于目前位处晚周期阶段,眼下不是过度冒险的时机。
- 由于政府债券收益率较低,信用债息差收窄,企业违约率受控,全球央行维持政策不变,从股市市盈率来看资产估值已得到充分反映,价格也公允合理。
- 相较于债券,我们维持超配股票(相对债券);相较于国际股市,我们超配美国股票。
- 我们去年建议大家坚持投资,也许部分投资者不敢苟同,但这仍然是我们目前的建议。
回首去年,投资者普遍认为经济将会衰退。我们力排众议,根据基本面因素得出经济不会陷入衰退的观点。制造恐慌并非投资建议,而是哗众取宠,这种情况在2019年不时发生。
许多同样看空股市的专家去年错过了一波涨势之后,现在都纷纷转投看涨阵营。我认为宏观市场环境并非一如去年预期般糟糕。不过,今年环球市场也不会出现单向融涨。我们当前的投资组合配置已经反映了我们更加均衡的市场展望。我认为未来股市将会跑赢债市,但涨幅将会转趋合理。毫无疑问,未来环球股市前路将会崎岖难行。
去年全球发达股市回报高率28%,纵观环球市场,核心债券回报率介于6.0%至8.5%。回顾过去,当然易如反掌。去年大部分时间里,很少人对宏观经济、市场周期或投资前景感到乐观。我们坚持立场和顺周期投资组合配置。我们去年建议大家坚持投资,也许部分投资者不敢苟同,但这仍然是我们目前的建议。
理性繁荣
2019年市场回报强劲。然而,当我们分析2019年的资产回报率时,也必须把2018年末股市遭大幅抛售的因素一同考量。去年所得回报很大程度上只是风险资产从之前大规模抛售潮中反弹的必然结果(图1)。去年的「繁荣境况」是对2018年市场反复调整的理性反应。
图1:去年风险资产反弹
根据EPFR Global的数据显示,去年全球股票市场基金的资本流出量为2,450亿美元。全球债券基金流入资金接近6,700亿美元。此外,超过6,100亿美元流入货币市场基金。大量抱持观望态度投资者,不情愿地将资金再投资。如果计入2019年的现金流入情况,2018年货币市场基金流入略低于1,500亿美元。自从2018年12月出现恐慌性抛售后,许多投资者开始转持现金。他们本应采取反向操作。
我曾经提到,我们去年提出经济不会陷入衰退的预测与当时的市场普遍预期相反。基于多个合理理由,今年经济不会陷入衰退的观点已经成为市场共识。随着各国央行未来将会按兵不动还是采取宽松货币政策手段愈发明显,投资者对政策利率走向的不确定性也越来越小。根据国际货币基金组织计算,2019年全球49家央行降息总共71次,这是自2008年爆发金融危机以来全球最多央行同步采取宽松政策举措。
由于各国央行倾向于在必要时才会调低政策利率,未来面临的更大挑战在于,央行采取宽松政策实际上还能发挥多大作用。如今,发达市场央行对于进一步刺激经济增长方面已经无计可施,实际上只是在「推绳子」。他们放松银根的意愿将继续帮助支撑风险资产估值,但从实际情况来看,一旦情况变得更糟,投资者将转向要求政府放宽财政政策。这是一个更难解决的政策难题。
环球市场投资者持续相信各国央行将会按兵不动并且倾向采取宽松货币政策,主要因为当前通胀温和。美国的平均时薪同比增长率约为3%。对全球市场而言,这个水平「恰到好处」(图2),既没有增长过热以至严重打压企业利润率或明显推高通胀预期,也没有过度下跌抑制消费。从基本面来看,风险资产估值公允且具备因素支撑。然而,这并不意味着股市价格低廉。
图2:美国劳动力市场强劲和薪资增长受控
背景因素有所好转
美国政府已经与中国签署了「第一阶段」贸易协议。北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA) 2.0版(美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定,简称USMCA)已获批准;此外,美国与日本之间的小型贸易协议同时已获批准,无不增强了投资者信心,促使他们相信在11月美国大选前,贸易争端或可宣告暂时休战。然而,与贸易相关的负面新闻依然无法排除.
随着环球市场投资者的情绪转趋乐观,眼下市况是否真的发生了变化?显而易见,当前背景因素更为有利。市场不确定性减少的迹象随处可见,投资者也做出了相应反应。当提到投资情绪时,我曾多次听到「踌躇满志」一词。我认为我们尚未至此。投资者的热情可能正在飚涨,但迄今为止,市场氛围是建立在宏观和市场环境持续改善这些基础之上.
我预计全球经济增长将与2019年持平(图3)。不过,中国爆发新型冠状病毒疫情增添了不确定性。目前尚未得知这次疫情将会给未来的经济增长造成打击的严重程度。从目前来看,我们预计今年上半年全球经济增长放缓但到了下半年将会渐见复苏。
图3:全球经济增长应维持在趋势水平
目前,市场不存在巨大压力促使通胀预期在今年明显升温。美国通胀率应介于2.0% - 2.5%左右。欧洲和日本通胀率将继续远低于央行的设定目标2%。对投资者来说,眼下的市场背景因素有利。
一切安好
美国正处于经济扩张周期的第11个年头。在过去十多年的经济扩张周期中,曾经出现了几个小周期放缓。当每次经济放缓,虽然制造业的生产趋势都会走低,但也不会拖累整体经济增长(图4)。对许多发达经济体而言,制造业只是无法像以往般产生巨大影响。正因如此,消费者信心和消费对于保持当前经济周期稳定增长至关重要。到目前为止,一切安好。
图4:尽管工业生产步伐放缓,国内生产总值增长依然保持韧性
我认为较长期政府国债收益率下降并非一个令人担忧的问题。投资者似乎已经接受了美联储将政策利率下调75个基点的决定。由于市场对新型冠状病毒疫情的担忧日益加剧,投资者也纷纷转向较长期的政府国债。与此同时,避险资金也流入了美元。
至于债券方面,如果今年上半年经济增长因新型冠状病毒疫情蔓延而面临更大压力,投资者预期各国央行将会放松货币政策。市场认为,无论是通过调低政策利率和/或增购国债手段,央行都可以帮助缓解供需冲击。大家一起拭目以待。
美联储主席鲍威尔已经明确表示,美联储仍将按兵不动,同时对经济预测摘要进行了修正,预计今年政策利率将会保持不变,到2021年和2022年或会加息一次。美联储曾经表示,只有「通胀明显持续升温」,方会重启加息路径。相对于美国,欧洲和日本的通胀情况较为温和,欧洲央行和日本央行因而倾向采取进一步宽松货币政策。
我正在密切关注通胀预期是否开始上升。如果经济增长步伐超出我们预期,虽然通胀升温可能会对资产估值形成压力,但应对风险资产构成一定支撑。对于每一位认为通胀是当前市场最大风险所在的专家来说,他们的观点正确。但我认为,通胀风险今年搅乱市场的可能性仍然很低,主要取决于经济增长环境的未来走向。
谨慎乐观
我依然抱持谨慎乐观的态度。我认为市场估值公允合理。风险资产昂贵,反映了当前经济在宏观和市场周期中的位置。相对于历史价值,发达市场和新兴市场当前的资产估值高昂。作为一名主动型经理人,环球市场资产估值低廉乃投资者的焦点所在。正因如此,我们专注于确保投资组合多元分散风险。当市场估值昂贵且继续上涨时,多元分散风险操作至关重要。
我认为股市仍存在进一步上涨空间。尽管市盈率高昂,但它们需要当前的市场环境支撑。由于政府国债收益率较低,信用债息差收窄,企业违约率受控,加上各国央行按兵不动,股市估值看来已得到充分反映,且价格也公允合理。在所有其他条件相同的情况下,仅从股票风险溢价来看,股票市场距离繁荣景况遥不可及(图5)。然而,市场环境永远充满着变数。
图5:股票风险溢价估值上升
验证型投资者对投资于股市的信心,来自于企业盈利增长。如果去年的市场表现全都是基于重新评估市盈率而推动,那么今年市场焦点将主要围绕盈利表现。我认为如果缺乏盈利表现验证,市场大幅走高的机会不大。我们需要几个季度的企业盈利表现来证明。投资者情绪已从担忧转向「信任之余,不忘求证」。这是市场氛围的一个非常重要且积极正面的变化。
作为基本预测,我继续采用标普500指数作为今年企业盈利增长5% - 7%的预估基准。我预期美国以外的发达股市企业盈利增长率将为4%至6%,而新兴市场的企业盈利增幅将达到高个位数。另外,股息将会增长2%,而股票回购将会增加1%–2%。我预计全球股市回报率将会达到高个位数。相比之下,我预期固定收益资产的回报率只有低个位数。有鉴及此,我们超配股票而非债券。
过去几个月,市场出现了轮动行情,投资者买入一些原本落后的行业板块和地区股票。这对股市来说是一个良好的信号。落后股正在迎头赶上。补涨行情让大盘得以重新调整基准,为试图推高大盘奠定新的底部。我们乐于在市场回调时进场。其他人也不会例外。我认为这是正面评价。我们还没有达到削减风险持仓的估值水平。
眼见为实
我们是基本面投资者。我关心当前经济在市场和宏观周期中所处位置,关注货币和财政政策,企业违约风险和杠杆水平,以及所有这些因素如何转化成为股票和固定收益市场的绝对估值和相对估值。当市场触底时从来不会响起「清仓」警号,在市场到顶时也从来不会敲起钟声。
去年,我最喜欢的新闻标题之一是:「奥巴马将会扼杀股市。不,是特朗普。不,是沃伦。」我提到这一点是为了强调我之前曾经提出的一个观点。作为一名投资者,当政治因素开始影响基本面时,就会关心政治问题。我正在密切关注美国竞选活动中浮现的政策问题。我们目前没有足够的信息可以假设今年11月的总统大选将会影响投资组合仓位。随着事态发展的不断变化,投资组合也可能随之变化。
诚如我之前所言,我们是主动型经理人,当前经济在市场周期中所处的位置为我们投资组合承担的风险水平提供了指引。目前还不是过度冒险的时机。市场将不可避免地创造一个让投资者更专注于投入风险资产的机会。资产估值将有助于形成这一决定。由于环球市场受到投资者情绪主导甚至有时还会反应过度,预期短期内市场效率低下。
市场有充分理由担心新型冠状病毒疫情。随着不确定性持续上升,投资者转趋谨慎。当专家重新审视因何2003年严重性呼吸系统综合症(简称非典型肺炎(SARS))疫情对当年市场造成微不足道的影响时,我认为这也许并非一个合适的参考指标。2003年,中国占全球经济的比重略低于5%。反观目前,中国经济占全球国内生产总值的比重超过15%。与此同时,中国国内经济继续转向服务业和消费主导,而不是主要依靠出口。
与2003年相比,目前中国国内消费对全球经济的影响要大得多。新型冠状病毒与需要时间重建和恢复的自然灾害截然不同,一旦疫情转趋稳定,此前完全停滞的需求就能迅速恢复。在很大程度上,这正是市场保持坚韧的原因。
后见之明
去年,我们对投资组合做了很多合适的配置,值得注意的是,我们每天都会重新审视投资组合持仓。2018年12月底和去年1月初,我们增持了美国股票。随着风险资产涨升,我们在第一季度持有非核心信用债。当我们认为信用债息差估值已得到充分反映时,我们削减了信用债资产配置。如果机会出现,我愿意再做一次那样的交易。鉴于我们目前超配股票,我希望保持多元资产投资组合的风险预算。
我们保持了美国股票的超配,去年又增持了一些美股。目前,我们的投资组合超配多达5%的美国股票。去年我们避开了新兴股市,新兴市场的表现较发达市场逊色约9%。
随着贸易争端逐渐缓和,我们正在重新审视新兴股市。我们首先需要进一步深入了解新型冠状病毒疫情对经济以至企业盈利增长造成的影响。目前投入新兴市场似乎言之过早。我们将会基于对相对强劲的企业盈利增长预期,而不是资产估值来增持。新兴市场资产目前并不便宜。
在多元资产投资组合中,我们的固定收益资产配置持有和基准指数同样的久期。当收益率回升时,我们持续稳定购债。随着本轮经济周期延长,我们可能会再次购债。在我们的固定收益资产配置中,我一直专注于持有优质流动性债券。
在多元资产投资组合中,我们持有核心债券为投资组合提供保险作用。收益率本身并不是持有政府国债的动力。我预期今年大部分时间情况都将如此。鉴于我们预期全球政府国债市场将呈区间走势,我们将继续持有固定收益债券,以帮助分散投资组合中的风险。
去年我们犯了哪些明显的错误?我低估了日本股市持续受到的拖累。相较于美国和范围更广泛的发达市场股票,日本股市仍然低廉。尽管我们去年低配了日本股票,但我们本应采取进一步减持操作。
我们过快出售全部投资级信用债。虽然即便时光倒流我也不会按目前水平增持,但我们当时应稍微延长持有这些仓位的时间。另外,我们对股票板块的持仓配置也过于保守。这些持仓让我们得以维持超配股票策略,并增加了我们对美国股票的超配。能源和医疗保健行业股票的表现跑输大盘。
最后,至于拥有另类投资产品的投资组合方面,对冲基金和流动性另类投资产品均表现强劲。尽管我们已经充分配置对冲基金,但我们低配流动性另类投资产品。另类投资产品仍然是我们固定收益持仓一重要补充。
去年,世界失去了一位伟大的央行行长——保罗•沃尔克(Paul Volcker)。我强烈推荐他在2018年发表的回忆录《坚定不移》(Keeping At It)。这本著作简要描述了这位万人敬仰的央行行长过去的伟大事迹和人生传奇。随着时间流逝,人们很容易便会忘记了过去几十年里沃尔克曾经经历过的一些重大市场事件、政策和地缘政治挑战,以及他在当中所占据的重要地位。《坚定不移》一书的序言以一个鹦鹉笑话展开序幕。
后见之明。活出精彩人生需要不断向前;从生活中学习,像投资一样,汲取经验和宝贵教训。