可再生能源投资：迎接清洁能源的新时代

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Investment Insights Megatrends: Clean Energy.

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A woman with long blonde hair and dark eyes, Anastasia Amoroso.

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Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy

Ms. Rooney:

My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Did you know that only 20% of us living in 4,300 cities around the world today breathe clean air that meets environmental standards? The rest of us are breathing in some level of polluted air, which has long been linked to damaging impacts on human health. Well, now it is increasingly possible to both enjoy modern life and breathe cleaner air. This is because clean or renewable energy, after years of hype and at times disappointment, has finally come of age, and it promises to significantly reduce our reliance on air-polluting fossil fuels.

So why now? Because many forces are finally combining to make clean energy our reality. Specifically, the government push for clean energy and the economics pull of solar and wind technologies are attracting more and more industry, consumer and corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy. First, speaking of government push, $54 billion of post-COVID fiscal stimulus worldwide is being directed towards green initiatives. But now add on top of it more than $600 billion of green stimulus just recently agreed to by the European Union. This is a significant further push on top of already existing government commitments to renewables.

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A bar chart appears, showing "COVID-19 stimulus packages approved to date are leaning "green," with "Global Green Stimulus Adopted" at 54 billion dollars and "Green Stimulus Passed by European Union in July 2020" at just over 600 billion dollars.

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Source: CNBC, July 21, 2020, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, July 23, 2020.

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For example, Europe plans to generate 32% of its electricity from clean energy by 2030. China targets 35% from renewables by the same date. And in the U.S., although there is no official federal target, 29 states have renewable energy commitments by 2030 or before. This government push, it means significant acceleration of clean energy during this decade. But perhaps even more important than the government push is the pull of attractive economics of clean energy like wind and solar. The cost of solar fell 82% from 2010, while the cost of onshore wind energy declined by 39%. In fact, electricity production using these renewables fell so much that it is now cheaper to build new solar and wind capacity than a new coal plant, and almost as cheap as natural gas. That is a true inflection point.

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A line chart appears, labeled "Cost of wind and solar is below coal, converged with natural gas. Dollars per megawatt hour (real 2019.)"   The chart shows:

 - Solar at just above 350 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 50 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;

 - Onshore wind at just above 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 50 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;

 - Offshore wind at just above 200 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;

 - Natural gas at about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2014 and remaining at about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;

 - Coal at about 75 dollars per megawatt hour in 2014 and remaining at about 75 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020.

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1H 2020 LCOE Data Viewer. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. April 28, 2020. LCOE is a levelized cost of energy, the net present value of the unit-cost of electricity over the lifetime of a generating asset. It is often taken as a proxy of the average price that the generating asset must receive in a market to break even over its lifetime.

Ms. Rooney:

It is not surprising then globally, solar and wind are projected to represent 60% of new capacity as from 2021 to 2025. And in 2019, they already accounted for 72% In addition to the government push and the favorable economic pull, it is the corporate commitment to sustainability that is driving the adoption of clean energy. For example, more than 200 companies globally, or a quarter of the global Fortune 500 companies, have committed to renewable energy by 2050 or sooner. And one in three of them are already 75% towards their goals.

Interestingly, one-in-two companies say that they’re motivated by cost savings. We think it is the corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy that could be the source of upside surprise to investors.

So the bottom line is this, the forces of government policies, favorable economics and shareholder focus on corporate sustainability are combining to accelerate the push towards renewables. Already this year, clean energy companies significantly outperform [RATA 00:03:27] indices in the first half of 2020.

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A bar chart appears, labeled "Government push and favorable economics are combining forces to make clean energy a reality." It shows:

 - S&P 500 at 5.78%;

 - Nasdaq Computer at 9.96%;

 - iShares Global Clean Energy ETF at 16.73%;

 - Nasdaq Biotech at 27.23%.

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Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of April 20, 2020. For clean energy, used the average 2019-2022 CAGR excluding stocks that have negative EPS or that EPS wasn't otherwise available.

Ms. Rooney:

And judging from the substantial projected annual earnings growth of 17% for the next three years, this streak of outperformance may continue. Of course, there’s still plenty of risk to consider, political headwinds or the fact that renewables are not always 100% green. But for investors who are careful in navigating these risks, this can still mean a wealth of opportunities in both public and private markets. Specifically, companies focusing on various wind and solar technologies, which are enabling this transition to clean energy, they should stand to benefit.

Thank you joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you more on this very important topic of clean energy. It is important to us, both for our financial and personal health.

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