Anastasia Amoroso Executive Director, Head of Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy
可持续投资
可再生能源投资:迎接清洁能源的新时代
在政府扶持和良好的经济性的双重推动下,未来可再生能源有望快速发展,为投资者带来巨大的机遇。
“可再生能源发电成本已经下降到与天然气相当的水平,甚至更低,且已远低于煤炭。”
清洁: 无污染。成本低且可预测: 不因大宗商品价格波动而变动。可再生: 非无限。本地采购且可靠: 独立于地缘政治。换句话说,电是可再生的 — 而煤、石油、甚至天然气都不是。
结论
我们认为清洁能源经济性的提升以及政府对清洁能源的大力扶持最终将为投资者带来超预期的收益—清洁能源产业链相关公司有望实现两位数的盈利增长。目前的预测显示,2019-2022年全球清洁能源行业的盈利将增长17%,远高于标普500指数等主要基准指数的增长。
下面我们将具体阐述这一结论背后的逻辑并梳理清洁能源领域蕴含的投资机会。
My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Did you know that only 20% of us living in 4,300 cities around the world today breathe clean air that meets environmental standards? The rest of us are breathing in some level of polluted air, which has long been linked to damaging impacts on human health.
Well, now it is increasingly possible to both enjoy modern life and breathe cleaner air. This is because clean or renewable energy, after years of hype and at times disappointment, has finally come of age, and it promises to significantly reduce our reliance on air-polluting fossil fuels.
So why now? Because many forces are finally combining to make clean energy our reality. Specifically, the government push for clean energy and the economics pull of solar and wind technologies are attracting more and more industry, consumer and corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy.
First, speaking of government push, $54 billion of post-COVID fiscal stimulus worldwide is being directed towards green initiatives. But now add on top of it more than $600 billion of green stimulus just recently agreed to by the European Union. This is a significant further push on top of already existing government commitments to renewables.
For example, Europe plans to generate 32% of its electricity from clean energy by 2030. China targets 35% from renewables by the same date. And in the U.S., although there is no official federal target, 29 states have renewable energy commitments by 2030 or before. This government push, it means significant acceleration of clean energy during this decade.
But perhaps even more important than the government push is the pull of attractive economics of clean energy like wind and solar. The cost of solar fell 82% from 2010, while the cost of onshore wind energy declined by 39%. In fact, electricity production using these renewables fell so much that it is now cheaper to build new solar and wind capacity than a new coal plant, and almost as cheap as natural gas. That is a true inflection point. It is not surprising then globally, solar and wind are projected to represent 60% of new capacity as from 2021 to 2025. And in 2019, they already accounted for 72%
In addition to the government push and the favorable economic pull, it is the corporate commitment to sustainability that is driving the adoption of clean energy. For example, more than 200 companies globally, or a quarter of the global Fortune 500 companies, have committed to renewable energy by 2050 or sooner. And one in three of them are already 75% towards their goals.
Interestingly, one-in-two companies say that they’re motivated by cost savings. We think it is the corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy that could be the source of upside surprise to investors.
So the bottom line is this, the forces of government policies, favorable economics and shareholder focus on corporate sustainability are combining to accelerate the push towards renewables. Already this year, clean energy companies significantly outperform [RATA 00:03:27] indices in the first half of 2020. And judging from the substantial projected annual earnings growth of 17% for the next three years, this streak of outperformance may continue.
Of course, there’s still plenty of risk to consider, political headwinds or the fact that renewables are not always 100% green. But for investors who are careful in navigating these risks, this can still mean a wealth of opportunities in both public and private markets. Specifically, companies focusing on various wind and solar technologies, which are enabling this transition to clean energy, they should stand to benefit.
Thank you joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you more on this very important topic of clean energy. It is important to us, both for our financial and personal health.
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Investment Insights Megatrends: Clean Energy.
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A woman with long blonde hair and dark eyes, Anastasia Amoroso.
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Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy
Ms. Rooney:
My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Did you know that only 20% of us living in 4,300 cities around the world today breathe clean air that meets environmental standards? The rest of us are breathing in some level of polluted air, which has long been linked to damaging impacts on human health. Well, now it is increasingly possible to both enjoy modern life and breathe cleaner air. This is because clean or renewable energy, after years of hype and at times disappointment, has finally come of age, and it promises to significantly reduce our reliance on air-polluting fossil fuels.
So why now? Because many forces are finally combining to make clean energy our reality. Specifically, the government push for clean energy and the economics pull of solar and wind technologies are attracting more and more industry, consumer and corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy. First, speaking of government push, $54 billion of post-COVID fiscal stimulus worldwide is being directed towards green initiatives. But now add on top of it more than $600 billion of green stimulus just recently agreed to by the European Union. This is a significant further push on top of already existing government commitments to renewables.
On screen:
A bar chart appears, showing "COVID-19 stimulus packages approved to date are leaning "green," with "Global Green Stimulus Adopted" at 54 billion dollars and "Green Stimulus Passed by European Union in July 2020" at just over 600 billion dollars.
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Source: CNBC, July 21, 2020, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, July 23, 2020.
Ms. Rooney:
For example, Europe plans to generate 32% of its electricity from clean energy by 2030. China targets 35% from renewables by the same date. And in the U.S., although there is no official federal target, 29 states have renewable energy commitments by 2030 or before. This government push, it means significant acceleration of clean energy during this decade. But perhaps even more important than the government push is the pull of attractive economics of clean energy like wind and solar. The cost of solar fell 82% from 2010, while the cost of onshore wind energy declined by 39%. In fact, electricity production using these renewables fell so much that it is now cheaper to build new solar and wind capacity than a new coal plant, and almost as cheap as natural gas. That is a true inflection point.
On screen:
A line chart appears, labeled "Cost of wind and solar is below coal, converged with natural gas. Dollars per megawatt hour (real 2019.)" The chart shows:
- Solar at just above 350 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 50 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Onshore wind at just above 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 50 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Offshore wind at just above 200 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Natural gas at about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2014 and remaining at about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Coal at about 75 dollars per megawatt hour in 2014 and remaining at about 75 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020.
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Small print text appears.
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1H 2020 LCOE Data Viewer. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. April 28, 2020. LCOE is a levelized cost of energy, the net present value of the unit-cost of electricity over the lifetime of a generating asset. It is often taken as a proxy of the average price that the generating asset must receive in a market to break even over its lifetime.
Ms. Rooney:
It is not surprising then globally, solar and wind are projected to represent 60% of new capacity as from 2021 to 2025. And in 2019, they already accounted for 72% In addition to the government push and the favorable economic pull, it is the corporate commitment to sustainability that is driving the adoption of clean energy. For example, more than 200 companies globally, or a quarter of the global Fortune 500 companies, have committed to renewable energy by 2050 or sooner. And one in three of them are already 75% towards their goals.
Interestingly, one-in-two companies say that they’re motivated by cost savings. We think it is the corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy that could be the source of upside surprise to investors.
So the bottom line is this, the forces of government policies, favorable economics and shareholder focus on corporate sustainability are combining to accelerate the push towards renewables. Already this year, clean energy companies significantly outperform [RATA 00:03:27] indices in the first half of 2020.
On screen:
A bar chart appears, labeled "Government push and favorable economics are combining forces to make clean energy a reality." It shows:
- S&P 500 at 5.78%;
- Nasdaq Computer at 9.96%;
- iShares Global Clean Energy ETF at 16.73%;
- Nasdaq Biotech at 27.23%.
Side note:
Small print text appears.
Text on screen:
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of April 20, 2020. For clean energy, used the average 2019-2022 CAGR excluding stocks that have negative EPS or that EPS wasn't otherwise available.
Ms. Rooney:
And judging from the substantial projected annual earnings growth of 17% for the next three years, this streak of outperformance may continue. Of course, there’s still plenty of risk to consider, political headwinds or the fact that renewables are not always 100% green. But for investors who are careful in navigating these risks, this can still mean a wealth of opportunities in both public and private markets. Specifically, companies focusing on various wind and solar technologies, which are enabling this transition to clean energy, they should stand to benefit.
Thank you joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you more on this very important topic of clean energy. It is important to us, both for our financial and personal health.
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J.P.Morgan Private Bank.
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摩根大通私人银行跨资产主题策略主管Anastasia Amoroso解释,如今人们越来越有希望在享受现代生活的同时呼吸更洁净的空气。
"去年,美国消耗的太阳能和风能等可再生能源供能超过了煤炭供能。"
到2030年,可再生能源占总能耗的32%
欧盟已承诺将于2050年之前实现「碳中和」目标。根据欧盟的规划,到2030年,可再生能源消费占比至少要达到32%2。据估测,欧洲向可再生能源和电池的转型有望带来2.6万亿美元的投资机会,其中有60%将来自于风能,28%将来自于太阳能。
到2030年,可再生能源占总能耗的20%
到2030年,可再生能源占总能耗的17%
美国向可再生能源转型的速度更为缓慢。美国可再生发电量占比目前为20%,预计到2030年将升至28%。当前,美国29个州的政策和目标是推动可再生能源普及的主要因素。2020-2030年,美国风力和太阳能发电量预计将各自增长1.5倍(请参见图表1)。
线图显示自2012年以来可再生能源占总发电量的历史百分比,以及直至2048年欧盟、中国及美国三大地区的预测百分比。在这段期间,美国可再生能源的普及速度滞后欧盟及中国
线图显示下列各项能源的不同均化发电成本基准:太阳能、海上风能、岸上风能、天然气及煤炭。所示数据由2009年下半年截至2020年上半年为止。在这段期间,包括太阳能及风能的可再生能源均化发电成本下跌幅度明显大于天然气或煤炭。太阳能均化发电成本下跌82%,岸上风能下跌39%,海上风能下跌29%。
电池储能技术预计将是解决可再生发电间歇性问题的关键,这项技术的成本也在逐渐下降。自2010年以来,电池包的成本已下降84%。 9
商业客户
除了监管要求和经济性的提升以外,投资者对可持续发展的日益关注也是推动可再生能源普及的重要因素。我们预期商业客户将成为清洁能源的重要消费者。
目前,美国有37%的电力需求来自于商业用电10,其中包括计算机设备的电力供应以及楼宇建筑的空调、暖气和照明用电。迄今为止,全球已有200多家公司(用电量总计228太瓦时)加入了RE100倡议,承诺将在2050年之前100%使用可再生能源。目前已有三分之一的公司达到75%的使用量;有半数的公司使用可再生能源的目的是为了节约成本。11 从总体上看,有四分之一的财富世界500强公司已宣布实现碳中和或到2030年将使用100%的可再生能源或达到基于科学的减排目标。 12
以下是几个关于公司如何响应可再生能源承诺的例子:
“云数据中心现在消耗全球2%以上的电力,排放的二氧化碳大致相当于航空业。”
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投资前景
世界经济向可再生能源的转型虽已酝酿多年,但直至今日才在多重利好因素的共振下逐步实现。显而易见,行业和企业界对清洁能源的承诺正在日益增加。我们预期清洁能源的普及速度有望超出投资者的预期,带来广阔的增长机会。
我们认为公开市场和私募市场存在以下四个方面的投资机会:
- 供应可再生能源且回报率具有吸引力的公用事业公司。
- 购买和租赁可再生能源资产、能够将现金流转化为股息收益 的收益型公司。
- 有助于改善成本效率、新增装机量不断提升的太阳能和风电技术。
- 有助于管理电力负荷和最优传输的数字化技术,例如智能电网资产性能管理系统和「物联网」。
此外,碳积分、可再生能源积分和绿色债券领域的机会亦值得关注。
但需要注意的是,可再生能源领域的投资并非高枕无忧。除了投资标的的挑选难度较大以外,可再生能源投资还存在以下一般性的风险:
- 中国对稀土的控制(稀土是许多可再生能源采集技术不可缺少的元素)
- 美国 政治风向的变化和可再生能源政策的调整
- 可再生能源并不总是绝对的绿色环保,一些清洁能源技术的生产过程会产生潜在的有害废物
1《2019年新能源展望》,彭博新能源财经,2019年6月。
2 欧盟委员会关于可再生能源、能源效率和治理的新规,2018年12月4日。
3 在中国经济增长的推动下,到2042年全国用电量预计将增长76%(到2050年,经合组织国家的电力需求预计每年仅增长0.4%)。
4《可再生能源发展「十三五」规划》,中国国家能源局,2016年12月10日。
5《2019年新能源展望》,彭博新能源财经,2019年6月。
6 水力,地热,生物质,陆上/海上风能,电厂规模和小规模光伏。
7 国际可再生能源署,https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewables-Increasingly-Beat-Even-Cheapest-Coal-Competitors-on-Cost
8 当然,未来的新增发电容量不会全部都是可再生能源。许多工业应用仍需要传统石油、天然气和化石燃料的高能源含量,因此到2050年,这些传统燃料仍将是玻璃、大宗化学品、钢铁等行业的主要能源。此外,燃气轮机联合循环和尖峰燃气发电厂仍将在提供备用和可调度电力方面发挥重要的作用。
9 2019年的电池储能成本为186美元/千瓦时。到2024年和2030年,电池储能成本预计将分别进一步降至94美元/千瓦时和62美元/千瓦时。资料来源:彭博新能源财经,2019年6月
10 美国环保署,美国能源信息署,电力数据浏览器,2017年12月。
11 《RE100进展与洞察》,2019年12月。
12《行动胜于空谈》,Natural Capital Partners,2019年9月。公司「基于科学」的减排目标是指减排目标符合最新的气候科学,与《巴黎协定》「把全球气温升幅控制在比前工业化时期高2摄氏度以内,并努力将气温升幅进一步限制在1.5摄氏度以内」的目标保持一致。
13 https://e360.yale.edu/features/energy-hogs-can-huge-data-centers-be-made-more-ecient
14 本文件不构成投资建议。不得将本材料视为投资研究或摩根大通的投资研究报告。
15 冰岛、芬兰和瑞典等北欧国家已逐渐成为数据中心客户的理想目的地,因为这些国家在可再生能源发电领域位居领先,并且能够提供有利的低温环境以解决数据中心的散热问题。
16 本文件不构成投资建议。不得将本材料视为投资研究或摩根大通的投资研究报告。
17 https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/green-power-partnership-national-top-100
18 本文件不构成投资建议。不得将本材料视为投资研究或摩根大通的投资研究报告。
19 https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/wind.html