Anastasia Amoroso Executive Director, Head of Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy
Inversión sostenible
Una nueva era para la energía limpia
Para los inversores, esto significa un mundo de oportunidades, puesto que las iniciativas gubernamentales y los sólidos datos económicos nos arrastran hacia un futuro renovable.
En resumen
Rcreemos que las ventajas económicas de las energías limpias y las iniciativas gubernamentales a favor de este tipo de producción energética acabarán ofreciendo a los inversores una agradable sorpresa al alza: un crecimiento de los beneficios de dos dígitos en compañías capaces de participar y sacar partido de la cadena de valor de la energía limpia. Las previsiones ya sugieren un crecimiento del 17% de los beneficios ligados a la energía limpia a escala mundial de 2019 a 2022, una cifra muy superior a la de los principales índices de referencia, como el S&P 500.
A continuación explicamos cómo llegamos a esta conclusión, y qué ámbitos brindarán, en nuestra opinión, interesantes oportunidades.
Me llamo Anastasia Amoroso, Jefa de Cross Asset Thematic Strategy, en J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
¿Sabías que solo el 20 % de nosotros, en 4300 ciudades en todo el mundo, respiramos aire limpio que cumple con los estándares ambientales? El resto de nosotros respiramos algún tipo de aire contaminado, que durante mucho tiempo se ha relacionado con impactos dañinos en la salud humana. Bueno, ahora es cada vez más posible disfrutar de la vida moderna y respirar aire limpio. Esto se debe a que la energía limpia renovable, después de años de espera y a veces, de decepción, ha llegado. Y la promesa es reducir significativamente nuestra dependencia de combustibles fósiles que contaminan el aire.
¿Y por qué ahora? Porque muchas fuerzas se están combinando para hacer de la energía limpia nuestra realidad. En específico, los gobiernos impulsan la energía limpia y el fondo económico de las tecnologías solar y eólica están atrayendo cada vez más el interés de la industria, los consumidores y las empresas a la adopción de energías limpias.
Primero, hablando del gobierno, $ 54 mil millones de estímulo fiscal posterior a la COVID en todo el mundo está siendo dirigido hacia iniciativas verdes. Pero ahora, además de esto, hay más de 600 mil millones de estímulos verdes acordados recientemente por la Unión Europea. Esto es un impulso significativo además de los compromisos gubernamentales existentes para energías renovables.
Por ejemplo, Europa planea generar el 32 % de su electricidad de energía limpia para el 2030. China apunta el 35 % a energías renovables para la misma fecha. Y en los EE. UU., aunque no hay un plan general oficial, 29 estados tienen compromisos de energías renovables para el 2030 o antes. Este impulso del gobierno ha tenido aceleración significativa de energías limpias durante esta década.
Pero quizás, más importante que el impulso gubernamental, es el conjunto de atractivos económicos de la energía limpia, como la eólica y la solar. El costo de la energía solar cayó un 82 % desde 2010, mientras que el costo de la energía eólica terrestre disminuyó un 39%. De hecho, la producción de electricidad usando energías renovables cayó tanto que ahora es más barato construir una capacidad solar y eólica nueva que una nueva planta de carbón y casi tan barata como de gas natural. Este es un verdadero punto de inflexión. No sorprende que, globalmente, la energía solar y eólica se proyecte a representar el 60 % de la nueva capacidad de 2021 hasta el 2025. Y en 2019, ya representaban el 72 %.
Además del impulso de los gobiernos y la reserva económica favorable, es el compromiso corporativo de sostenibilidad que está impulsando la adopción de energías limpias. Por ejemplo, más de 200 compañías a nivel mundial, o un cuarto de las 500 compañías globales de Fortune se han comprometido a usar energías renovables para el 2050 o antes. Y una de cada tres ya están a un 75 % de su objetivo.
Curiosamente, una de cada dos compañías dice que las motiva el ahorro de gastos. Creemos que es el interés corporativo en la adopción de energías limpias lo que podría ser un alza sorpresiva para los inversores.
La conclusión es esta: las fuerzas de las políticas gubernamentales, una economía favorable y el enfoque de los accionistas en la sostenibilidad corporativa se combinan para acelerar el impulso hacia las energías renovables. Este año, las compañías de energías limpias superan significativamente los índices generales de la primera mitad del 2020. Y a juzgar por el sustancial crecimiento anual proyectado de las ganancias del 17 %. Durante los próximos tres años, esta racha de rendimiento superior debe continuar.
Por supuesto, aún hay muchos riesgos a considerar. Vientos políticos en contra, o el hecho de que las energías renovables no siempre son 100 % ecológicas. Pero para los inversores que tienen cuidado al afrontar estos riesgos, esto puede significar una gran cantidad de oportunidades tanto en mercados públicos como privados. Las compañías que se concentran en diversas tecnologías eólicas y solares que permiten esta transición a la energía limpia deberían beneficiarse.
Gracias por acompañarnos hoy. Esperamos hablar contigo sobre este tan importante tema de las energías limpias. Es importante para nosotros, para nuestra salud personal y financiera.
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Investment Insights Megatrends: Clean Energy.
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A woman with long blonde hair and dark eyes, Anastasia Amoroso.
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Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy
Ms. Rooney:
My name is Anastasia Amoroso, Head of Cross Asset Thematic Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Did you know that only 20% of us living in 4,300 cities around the world today breathe clean air that meets environmental standards? The rest of us are breathing in some level of polluted air, which has long been linked to damaging impacts on human health. Well, now it is increasingly possible to both enjoy modern life and breathe cleaner air. This is because clean or renewable energy, after years of hype and at times disappointment, has finally come of age, and it promises to significantly reduce our reliance on air-polluting fossil fuels.
So why now? Because many forces are finally combining to make clean energy our reality. Specifically, the government push for clean energy and the economics pull of solar and wind technologies are attracting more and more industry, consumer and corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy. First, speaking of government push, $54 billion of post-COVID fiscal stimulus worldwide is being directed towards green initiatives. But now add on top of it more than $600 billion of green stimulus just recently agreed to by the European Union. This is a significant further push on top of already existing government commitments to renewables.
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A bar chart appears, showing "COVID-19 stimulus packages approved to date are leaning "green," with "Global Green Stimulus Adopted" at 54 billion dollars and "Green Stimulus Passed by European Union in July 2020" at just over 600 billion dollars.
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Source: CNBC, July 21, 2020, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, July 23, 2020.
Ms. Rooney:
For example, Europe plans to generate 32% of its electricity from clean energy by 2030. China targets 35% from renewables by the same date. And in the U.S., although there is no official federal target, 29 states have renewable energy commitments by 2030 or before. This government push, it means significant acceleration of clean energy during this decade. But perhaps even more important than the government push is the pull of attractive economics of clean energy like wind and solar. The cost of solar fell 82% from 2010, while the cost of onshore wind energy declined by 39%. In fact, electricity production using these renewables fell so much that it is now cheaper to build new solar and wind capacity than a new coal plant, and almost as cheap as natural gas. That is a true inflection point.
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A line chart appears, labeled "Cost of wind and solar is below coal, converged with natural gas. Dollars per megawatt hour (real 2019.)" The chart shows:
- Solar at just above 350 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 50 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Onshore wind at just above 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 50 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Offshore wind at just above 200 dollars per megawatt hour in 2010 and decreasing to about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Natural gas at about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2014 and remaining at about 100 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020;
- Coal at about 75 dollars per megawatt hour in 2014 and remaining at about 75 dollars per megawatt hour in 2020.
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1H 2020 LCOE Data Viewer. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. April 28, 2020. LCOE is a levelized cost of energy, the net present value of the unit-cost of electricity over the lifetime of a generating asset. It is often taken as a proxy of the average price that the generating asset must receive in a market to break even over its lifetime.
Ms. Rooney:
It is not surprising then globally, solar and wind are projected to represent 60% of new capacity as from 2021 to 2025. And in 2019, they already accounted for 72% In addition to the government push and the favorable economic pull, it is the corporate commitment to sustainability that is driving the adoption of clean energy. For example, more than 200 companies globally, or a quarter of the global Fortune 500 companies, have committed to renewable energy by 2050 or sooner. And one in three of them are already 75% towards their goals.
Interestingly, one-in-two companies say that they’re motivated by cost savings. We think it is the corporate interest in the adoption of clean energy that could be the source of upside surprise to investors.
So the bottom line is this, the forces of government policies, favorable economics and shareholder focus on corporate sustainability are combining to accelerate the push towards renewables. Already this year, clean energy companies significantly outperform [RATA 00:03:27] indices in the first half of 2020.
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A bar chart appears, labeled "Government push and favorable economics are combining forces to make clean energy a reality." It shows:
- S&P 500 at 5.78%;
- Nasdaq Computer at 9.96%;
- iShares Global Clean Energy ETF at 16.73%;
- Nasdaq Biotech at 27.23%.
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Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of April 20, 2020. For clean energy, used the average 2019-2022 CAGR excluding stocks that have negative EPS or that EPS wasn't otherwise available.
Ms. Rooney:
And judging from the substantial projected annual earnings growth of 17% for the next three years, this streak of outperformance may continue. Of course, there’s still plenty of risk to consider, political headwinds or the fact that renewables are not always 100% green. But for investors who are careful in navigating these risks, this can still mean a wealth of opportunities in both public and private markets. Specifically, companies focusing on various wind and solar technologies, which are enabling this transition to clean energy, they should stand to benefit.
Thank you joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you more on this very important topic of clean energy. It is important to us, both for our financial and personal health.
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Anastasia Amoroso, jefa de estrategia temática transversal de Private Bank, explica cómo cada vez es más posible disfrutar de la vida moderna y respirar un aire más limpio.
La Unión Europea se ha comprometido a lograr la neutralidad climática de aquí a 2050. La UE se ha fijado como objetivo alcanzar una cuota de consumo de energía procedente de fuentes renovables de al menos un 32% de aquí a 20302 De hecho, se estima que la transición de Europa hacia las energías renovables y las baterías representa una oportunidad de inversión valorada en 2,6 billones de USD (de este total, la energía eólica representa el 60% y la energía solar, un 28%).
Se espera que China, el mercado de electricidad más grande del mundo3, haga su transición hacia un mayor uso* de las energías renovables más lentamente; sin embargo, el país se comprometió recientemente a alcanzar el pico de emisiones antes de 2030 y a convertirse en neutral en cuanto a las emisiones de carbono para 2060, diez años después que Europa. El objetivo declarado anteriormente por la nación para 2030 es que el 20% de su consumo de electricidad provenga de energía no fósil; los pronósticos indican que China alcanzará un 41% de generación de electricidad renovable para entonces. Se espera que China multiplique por 2,5 la generación de electricidad a partir del viento para 2027 y triplique la energía solar fotovoltaica (PV) para ese mismo año.
La transición en Estados Unidos evoluciona a un ritmo aún más pausado. Las energías renovables6 representan el 20% de la producción de electricidad actual, una cuota que debería aumentar al 28% antes de 2030. Hoy en día, la adopción de las energías renovables en Estados Unidos se ve impulsada por los objetivos y las políticas de 29 estados. Se prevé que la producción de electricidad eólica y solar se multiplique, cada una, por 1,5 entre 2020 y 2030 (véase el gráfico 1).
La economía atrae
La continua mejora de los datos económicos también impulsa la transición hacia las energías renovables en todo el mundo. Los costes de las tecnologías eólicas y solares se redujeron de forma sustancial gracias a una masiva expansión de la capacidad y a los avances tecnológicos. Desde 2010, la producción de energía fotovoltaica a gran escala ha registrado el mayor descenso de costes (con un 82%), mientras que los costes de la generación de energía eólica terrestre y marina cayeron un 39% y un 29%, respectivamente.7
Ya resulta más rentable construir nuevas capacidades energéticas con fuentes fotovoltaicas o eólicas que con fuentes de carbón. No sorprende pues que, a nivel mundial, las fuentes solares y eólicas aportarán, según las previsiones, el 60% de la nueva capacidad energética entre 2021 y 2025, y representaron un 72% en 2019.8 Pero eso no es todo: muy pronto, las nuevas energías solares y eólicas terrestres podrían costar menos que el mantenimiento de muchas plantas de carbón actualmente en activo (véase el gráfico 2).
Una gráfica de líneas que muestra los puntos de referencia mundiales del LCOE para la energía solar, la energía eólica marina y terrestre, el gas natural y el carbón a partir del 20 de mayo de 2020.
Se prevé que la tecnología de baterías para el almacenamiento de energía desempeñe una función crucial a la hora de abordar la naturaleza intermitente de la producción renovable; además, su coste también va en descenso. El coste de las baterías ha descendido un 84% desde 2010.9
Clientes comerciales
Teniendo en cuenta el creciente interés de los inversores por la sostenibilidad, las iniciativas de las autoridades reglamentarias y el respaldo de los datos económicos que impulsan la adopción de las energías renovables, creemos que los clientes comerciales se convertirán en significativos consumidores de energías limpias.
Hoy en día, los clientes comerciales representan un 37% de la demanda eléctrica en Estados Unidos,10 al utilizar la electricidad para alimentar los equipos informáticos, así como los sistemas de calefacción, aire acondicionado e iluminación de los edificios. A escala mundial, más de 200 compañías que representan 228 teravatios-hora (TWh) han manifestado su compromiso con la iniciativa «RE 100», destinada a ayudar a las empresas a alcanzar un uso de electricidad renovable del 100% de aquí a 2050. Una de cada tres empresas ya cumple este objetivo en un 75%, y una de cada dos está motivada por la reducción de costes.11 En general, una cuarta parte de las compañías de la lista «Fortune Global 500» han declarado públicamente que han alcanzado la neutralidad climática o que la alcanzarán antes de 2030, bien recurriendo a las energías renovables en un 100%, bien cumpliendo un objetivo de reducción de las emisiones basado en la ciencia.12
A continuación enumeramos algunos ejemplos destacados de cómo las empresas han comenzado a manifestar su compromiso con las energías renovables.
- Los centros de datos que apoyan muchas de nuestras actividades en línea basadas en la nube consumen ahora más del 2% de la electricidad mundial y emiten aproximadamente la misma cantidad de CO2 que el sector aéreo.13 No obstante, ciertas compañías como Facebook, Google, Amazon, Microsoft y Apple14 están rotando hacia la energía limpia con el fin de minimizar su huella de carbono actual y futura. Estas firmas ya consumen un volumen de energía limpia que cubre todas sus necesidades de electricidad, o se han comprometido a hacerlo antes de 2025.15
- Los gigantes tecnológicos no son los únicos que apuestan por las energías limpias. Determinadas empresas como Starbucks, Unilever, DHL y Cisco,16 entre otras, utilizan energías 100% renovables.17
- Incluso algunas compañías de petróleo y gas están creando una nueva versión renovable de sí
- mismas. Por ejemplo, la empresa noruega de petróleo y gas Equinor18 afirma que tiene previsto
- convertirse en «líder mundial de energía eólica marina» y pretende multiplicar por diez sus activos
- renovables antes de 2026.19
Hable con su equipo de J.P. Morgan hoy sobre Inversión Sustentable
Contáctenos
Oportunidades para los inversores
La transición hacia las energías renovables lleva anunciándose durante años, pero solo ahora existe una combinación de fuerzas suficientemente potente para hacer de este anuncio una realidad. Los compromisos adoptados por los sectores y las empresas a favor de las energías limpias van claramente en aumento. Consideramos que la velocidad de la adopción de las energías limpias podría deparar una positiva sorpresa para los inversores, además de promover significativas oportunidades de crecimiento.
Identificamos cuatro grandes ámbitos de oportunidad para los inversores en los mercados públicos y privados:
- Los servicios públicos que suministran energías renovables y que pueden obtener una atractiva rentabilidad.
- Las empresas denominadas «YieldCo» que compran y arriendan activos renovables y, a continuación, canalizan los flujos de caja a través de rendimientos por dividendo.
- Las tecnologías solares y eólicas que conllevan mejoras de eficiencia y costes, y que se benefician del creciente número de nuevas instalaciones.
- Las tecnologías de digitalización, como los gestores de rendimiento de activos para redes inteligentes y el «Internet de las cosas», que permiten gestionar las cargas de electricidad y un suministro óptimo.
También se observan oportunidades en los créditos de carbono, los créditos de energía renovable y los bonos verdes.
No obstante, debemos realizar una advertencia razonable, puesto que la inversión en energías renovables no supone un camino de rosas. Además del reto de identificar las compañías adecuadas en las que invertir, también existen riesgos generales como los siguientes:
- El control por parte de China de tierras raras, utilizadas en muchos métodos para la explotación de energías renovables
- El cambiante escenario político en Estados Unidos, que se traduce en políticas a favor o en contra de las energías renovables
- El hecho de que las energías renovables no siempre son inequívocamente ecológicas, ya que el proceso manufacturero de algunas tecnologías de energía limpia produce potencialmente residuos nocivos
1 "New Energy Outlook 2019". Bloomberg New Energy Finance, junio de 2019.
2 European Commission Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Governance, Dec 4, 2018.
3 En China, se prevé que el crecimiento económico impulse un 76% el consumo de electricidad del país de aquí a 2042 (lo que contrasta con la ínfima tasa de crecimiento de la demanda de electricidad del 0,4% anual en las economías de la OCDE hasta 2050).
*El objetivo de China es alcanzar 'la neutralidad de carbono para 2060'. BBC News, 22/9/20.
4 «13th Renewable Energy Development Five Year Plan», Administración Nacional de Energía de China, 10 de diciembre de 2016.
5 «New Energy Outlook 2019». Bloomberg New Energy Finance, junio de 2019.
6 Energía hidráulica, geotérmica, biomasa, eólica terrestre/marina, fotovoltaica a pequeña o gran escala.
7 IRENA, https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewables-Increasingly-Beat-Even-Cheapest-Coal-Competitors-on-Cost.
8 No cabe duda de que no todas las aportaciones a la capacidad energética procederán de las energías renovables. Muchas aplicaciones industriales todavía necesitan el mayor potencial energético del petróleo, el gas y los combustibles fósiles tradicionales, los cuales seguirán siendo la principal fuente de energía en industrias como el vidrio, los productos químicos a granel, el hierro y el acero, incluso hasta el año 2050. Las turbinas de gas de ciclo combinado y las plantas de gas que cubren picos de demanda también desempeñarán una importante función en el suministro de electricidad de reserva y despachable (a demanda).
9 El coste del almacenamiento de baterías en 2019 fue de 186 USD/kWh. Se prevé que vuelva a descender hasta los 94 USD/kWh de aquí a 2024 y a 62 USD/kWh hasta 2030. Fuente: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, junio de 2019.
10 EPA, EIA, Electricity Data Browser, diciembre de 2017.
11 RE100 Progress and Insights, diciembre de 2019.
12 «Deed Not Words», Natural Capital Partners, septiembre de 2019. Los objetivos de reducción de las emisiones adoptados por las compañías se consideran «basados en la ciencia» si concuerdan con lo que, según los últimos estudios climáticos, resulta necesario para satisfacer los objetivos del Acuerdo de París (a saber, «mantener el aumento de la temperatura media mundial muy por debajo de 2 °C con respecto a los niveles preindustriales y de proseguir los esfuerzos para limitar el aumento de la temperatura a 1,5 °C con respecto a esos niveles»).
13 https://e360.yale.edu/features/energy-hogs-can-huge-data-centers-be-made-more-efficient
14 La información aquí incluida no debe interpretarse como una recomendación de inversión. Este documento no debe considerarse ni un análisis de inversión ni un informe de análisis de inversión de J.P. Morgan.
15 Islandia y los países nórdicos, como Finlandia y Suecia, se perfilaron como atractivos destinos para los clientes de los centros de datos, puesto que estos países ocupan una posición de liderazgo en términos de utilización de las energías renovables para la producción de electricidad y ofrecen, además, condiciones favorables, como temperaturas más bajas para enfriar los centros de datos que producen calor.
16 La información aquí incluida no debe interpretarse como una recomendación de inversión. Este documento no debe considerarse ni un análisis de inversión ni un informe de análisis de inversión de J.P. Morgan.
17 https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/green-power-partnership-national-top-100
18 Le La información aquí incluida no debe interpretarse como una recomendación de inversión. Este documento no debe considerarse ni un análisis de inversión ni un informe de análisis de inversión de J.P. Morgan.
19 https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/wind.html