With markets higher so far this year, have you missed the rally? We don’t think so. In fact, we see several reasons why investors should remain optimistic.
Our Top Market Takeaways for June 23, 2023
Market spotlight
Bull market? 5 signs things could be getting better
Heading into Friday, U.S. stocks are trending toward their first loss in six weeks.
There’s no shortage of worries being batted around: The Federal Reserve is holding resolute on its call for two more rate hikes, U.S. regional banks are still facing challenges such as the possibility of higher capital requirements, the Bank of England and Norges Bank delivered their own heftier-than-expected, 50-basis-point hikes this week across the pond, some activity measures have gone on the backfoot (see today’s Purchasing Manager Index readings), China’s recovery has been losing momentum, geopolitics continue to rear their head…the list goes on.
It’s easy to get caught up in the bad stuff. What’s harder is seeing opportunity despite it. If investors had gotten sidetracked by the wall of worry heading into this year, they would have missed out on a +14% gain in global equities so far.
But with markets higher while recession obsession still looms, have you missed the rally? We don’t think so, and what’s more, we see some evidence that things might actually be getting better. Here are five signs that are top of mind for us.
1. The fight against inflation has made a lot of progress…with minimal economic pain.
We’ve seen the fastest tightening cycle in decades, and yet, the economy has taken it in stride. We continue to believe in the lagged effect of credit tightening, and activity momentum is tempering…but there’s no denying the resilience.
Overall growth remains well above levels over the last decade, and the economy is still adding in the realm of 225,000 jobs per month. Claims for unemployment have barely budged from an initial downshift at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the inflation conundrum has markedly improved: U.S. headline CPI now sits at 4.0% year-over-year today versus a peak of 9.1% a year ago. Wage inflation is trending around 4%–5% from heights of 6%–7%. And to that end, even the Fed’s “super core” measure focused on core services, stripping out rent prices, is decelerating—sitting at 4.6% year-over-year today versus 6.5% toward the end of last year. Still hot, but meaningful progress.
Signs of cooling in the Fed’s “super core” inflation measure
2. Parts of the economy that struggled last year could be accelerating again.
Housing was one of the first sectors to crack under the weight of higher rates, but signs are now pointing to stabilization, and maybe even an acceleration. Housing starts and building permits bested estimates in May. The starts data was particularly staggering, showing the biggest increase in new units since 1990.
While housing data can be noisy month to month, it’s hard to ignore the overarching trend. A decade of underbuilding has left housing inventories low, and builder confidence is in positive territory for the first time in almost a year. Add to that recent stability in mortgage rates (even if they’re high) and a still-strong (albeit slowing) consumer, and you get more homebuyer traffic and demand for homes.
This could be a sign that the economy can handle higher rates. Given that housing accounts for ~15% of GDP, this matters—especially if it means recent strength will stave off the need for layoffs in the construction sector. Markets are certainly taking notice: Homebuilder stocks are some of the best performers this year.
Homebuilders are up almost 50% since June 2022
3. The AI revolution is here, real, and could boost both growth and earnings.
Everyone seems to be talking about AI, but we don’t think it’s just hype. Just like disruptive innovations of the past, AI is likely to boost the productivity of the U.S. economy. To be fair, there are issues to face: AI’s accuracy is imperfect, there are questions over data privacy, and some jobs will be upended…but over time, large language models learn and improve, and the rebalancing process should also create new jobs and help workers produce more.
Estimates for quantifying AI’s potential impact are wide-ranging, but many suggest company productivity improves by 2%–4% when AI is adopted.1 Based on estimates from Goldman Sachs, around 25% of companies are expected to embrace AI in a meaningful way. This stands to boost productivity and lift S&P 500 earnings 11% higher than current estimates in 20 years’ time.2
We’re already seeing this happen: A handful of companies over the last few months (particularly along the AI value chain, such as semiconductors and software) have guided future revenue and earnings expectations higher on the optimism. And with the impact likely unfolding over the course of the next decade or more, we don’t think it’s all priced in.
4. Earnings expectations are on the up and up.
After adjusting for a weaker outlook for over a year, corporate America seems ready to move on. Expectations for future earnings were continuously revised lower, but have since turned a corner and now keep rising. The breadth of that optimism is also wide-reaching, with only energy companies seeing material negative revisions.
Earnings expectations are trending higher, despite growth worries
S&P 500 performance remains closely tied to earnings growth
5. It’s no longer just the biggest names leading the charge.
Just last week, more than 10% of stocks in the S&P 500 hit a new 52-week high, the most since March 2022. And more than half of the members of the Russell 3000 are currently above their 200-day moving averages. That leaves us with the fact that, since the start of June, the equally weighted S&P 500, mid-caps and small-caps are all outperforming the market-cap-weighted S&P 500. Read: The rest of the market stands to catch up to big tech, rather than the latter crashing down.
In June, the rally is broadening out beyond tech
All together:
At this point, we are on better footing—from both a growth and an inflation perspective—versus where we started the year. After rallying +22% from its lows, the S&P 500 is now just 8% away from all-time highs. We know bad stuff happens, risks remain, and selloffs can happen during times of transition.
But whether you call it a recession or a slowdown, we see opportunity. In the 10 other instances since 1950 that the S&P 500 has been up 15% or more in the first half of the year, it’s gone on to make further gains in the second half six of those times, with the full-year return on average +25%.
Stocks are the long-term growth engines of investment portfolios, and with the lows (in our view) behind us, we think investors should consider rebuilding their equity portfolios now for the next bull market.
Investment portfolios are built to last (bad stuff happens!)
Your J.P. Morgan team is here to discuss what this might mean for your portfolio.
1Damioli, Van Roy, and Vertesy (2021), Alderucci et al. (2020), Czarnitzki, Fernandez, and Rammer (2022).
2Goldman Sachs (6 June 2023). “US equities and Artificial Intelligence: Quantifying the potential impact on the S&P 500 index.”
All market and economic data as of June 2023 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.
We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.
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